Strong growth doesn’t guarantee recession avoidance; US grew 2.5% pre-Great Recession onset.
Fantastic point! ALSO, NBER recession announcement comes with a LONG LAG In the last 6 recessions, announcement of when a recession started was 234 days after the GDP data was released on average The Great Financial Crisis of 07-09 was announced a year after it started — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 19, 2024