Amidst fears of an impending recession, analysts point to historical indicators like a steepening yield curve and rising unemployment. Drawing parallels to past economic downturns, such as the Dot Com bubble and the 2008 Financial Crisis, cautionary signals have yet to fully materialize. Despite this, the stock market remains bullish, buoyed by ongoing optimism and a lack of concrete downturn indicators. However, with the Kansas Fed Labour Market Conditions Index hinting at potential challenges ahead and dwindling cash reserves among fund managers, concerns of complacency reaching alarming levels are on the rise.
The big stock market turning point will be a recession
Which would be signaled by a steepening yield curve and rising unemployment
This also happened during:
1. 2000 Dot Com bubble
2. 2008 Financial CrisisBut these conditions have not been met yet
And the market still… pic.twitter.com/By0SUgInoW
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 14, 2024
🇺🇸 Kansas Fed Labour Market Conditions Index 0.6
Correlation suggests risk of higher US #unemployment ahead!
Chart: @PPGMacro pic.twitter.com/1eVbXNEZFe
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) May 13, 2024
Cash levels among fund managers have fallen to even lower levels versus last month. In other words, complacency is approaching multi-year highs t.co/XlucP94siE pic.twitter.com/a6k0rbRZiI
— Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) May 14, 2024