In the realm of economic indicators, recent trends in the US retail sector are sending warning signals. Real retail sales have declined by 1.6% year over year, a concerning downturn that historically precedes a recession. Moreover, the stagnation in retail sales is mirrored by a surge in unsold new-build inventory, indicative of weakening consumer demand.
As the housing market struggles to find buyers, manufacturers are also feeling the squeeze. The latest data from the Kansas City Federal Reserve reveals a contraction in manufacturing, marked by a sharp decline in new orders. This dismal performance underscores the sector’s ongoing struggle, with no expansion recorded since September 2022.
Adding to the economic gloom, reports of major layoffs from prominent companies like Wells Fargo and impending job cuts at Cisco paint a bleak picture of the job market’s health. With over 1,000 job losses expected at Wells Fargo and Cisco bracing for further layoffs in mid-April, the employment landscape appears increasingly precarious.
🇺🇸 US real retail sales -1.6% YoY.
Retail sales flatline before a #recession. pic.twitter.com/kslJLPPccM
— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) March 28, 2024
A picture is worth a thousand words….which is why I wish I was better at them
New-build inventory not sold has been steadily 📈which of course includes spec
Lots of little boxes need to find their Ken and Barbie, but according to Zelman, traffic down
H/T: @DiMartinoBooth &QI pic.twitter.com/pCIJJV1Jke
— Melody Wright (@m3_melody) March 28, 2024
KSC Fed: manufacturing contracted faster in Mar as new orders nosedived again; sector hasn't expanded since Sep '22 – another very anemic report: pic.twitter.com/K1AV6PHcoI
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) March 28, 2024
Wells Fargo is reportedly laying off 1,000+ employees next week while Cisco is reportedly gearing up for its next round of job cuts in mid-April
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) March 28, 2024