Here’s an easier chart.
EVERY recession since 1969 has had same indicator. We had it again. When?
2/10 yield curve hit peak inversion (a 40+ yr high) in March. History says recession 6-9 mos after.
Since March data says recession would start Sept-Dec.
Ppl are just impatient. pic.twitter.com/BU8XPwwTMI
— Macrotrend Mojo (@MacrotrendMojo) July 10, 2023
A spike in this indicator preceded the last 3 recessions
Permanent job losses YoY remained resilient throughout 2022
But has been trending higher in 2023, reaching 18.9% pic.twitter.com/d0FEkCSluR
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 10, 2023
Real yields on US 2-year Treasuries have risen to near the highest since the beginning of 2009. pic.twitter.com/peFqJvZRYk
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 10, 2023