Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
March 27 looks like a make-or-break day for American travelers and the partial government shutdown TSA wait times are ramping up as the partial government shutdown persists — but pain points on March 27 could end it The ongoing partial government shutdown has sparked long wait times at many airports around the country — and …
Nearly four in ten Americans believe we are living in the end times, according to the Pew Research Center. Among historically Black Protestants and evangelicals, the belief climbs to 76 percent and 63 percent respectively. These numbers reflect widespread anxiety grounded in economic and social stress. Mortgage demand is collapsing. Applications fell 10.9 percent in …
Google Searches for Dollar "Debasement" soar to highest level in history 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/StG3Y1dtKp — Barchart (@Barchart) October 23, 2025
by David Haggith As “The Deeper Dive” this past weekend looked at the signs building for a stock market crash and economic collapse into an especially deep recession, more headlines came in on Friday and over the weekend to lay out further signs of recession, now that the government warning lights have been shut down. …
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices/ Electricity bills are going up around the US, but they’re rising even more sharply in areas located near data centers, according to an investigation into power costs by Bloomberg. The price of wholesale electricity has risen as much as 267% over the last five years in data center hot spots, according to the report, …
Interest rates are stuck. Inventory is swelling. Buyers are gone. More than half of all homes now sell below asking. It’s the weakest housing market since 2012. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-craters-56-homes-123114860.html Rents are falling, vacancies hitting records. National apartment rents dropped 0.8% year over year in July. The vacancy rate just hit an all-time high as the 2023 …
Berkshire’s earnings slump sends silent warning to euphoric market. Berkshire Hathaway Q2 operating earnings -3.8% Y/Y, cash pile slips to $344.09B pic.twitter.com/4D6811x5qU — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 2, 2025 BREAKING 🚨: Berkshire Hathaway Buffett might have to cancel his retirement! $BRK.A now underperforming the S&P 500 by 26 percentage points since his …
US 🇺🇸 GDP for Q1 just officially ended up at -0.5% pic.twitter.com/nLI7EytA55 — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) June 26, 2025 CNBC’s Rick Santelli joins ‘Squawk Box’ to break down the latest economic data to cross the tape.
SAM ALTMAN PROMISED TO SHARE AGI WITH THE WORLD—NOW HE’S CASHING IN 5 years ago, Sam Altman told investors OpenAI wouldn’t chase profit. No business model. Just build AGI, ask it how to make money, and take 0.001% of the value while sharing the rest with humanity. Now? OpenAI is a for-profit powerhouse, with closed …
Gold (and central banks) know that neither Congress nor the White House has any plan in place to cut off relentless peacetime, "non-recession" deficit spending. Source: CBO pic.twitter.com/Mg8H8x8yDf — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) May 5, 2025 Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%. However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is …
It’s not just KFC, prices at Popeyes Chicken have risen so high they too are over $50 dollars for a 16 piece meal Again, everything on this menu is so expensive Who can afford this? Popeyes Chicken takes EBT, it must be them pic.twitter.com/tuU6hZgEPX — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) May 1, 2025
Oil is in free fall lately. $58 today. This is one of the first signs of a recession. We’re getting to price levels near what it costs producers to pull it out of the ground. On the bright side it helps with inflation because it’s a major input cost for mfg. pic.twitter.com/NIdahDZX6m — QE Infinity …
BNPL: do you love it or hate it? 41% of users missed payments in the past year (LendingTree 2025), and with credit cards at 11.35% delinquency (Fed), it’s a lifeline for some, a nightmare for others. Now BNPL is being reported to credit reports. YIKES! 200K+ of you felt very… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) April …
by confoundedinterest17 Washington DC is loaded with good ol’ boys. Willing to cut deals with anyone for a slice of financial pie. Like “10% For The Big Guy” Joe Biden. Money flowing into Treasury funds hit its highest since 2017, by far. And with the massive expansion of The Fed’s balance sheet with a) the financial crisis …
There is a quiet theft happening in plain sight. Banks like Chase and Bank of America are paying you a humiliating 0.01 percent on your savings. That is not a typo. For every thousand dollars you keep with them, you get one dime a year. It is not just a bad deal. It is financial …
An oil shock is coming. Yes, I know, deflation….blah…recession…blah…oils is plunging…blah blah. Gold & silver are heading for a huge bull era. I don't care about fairytale narratives. Oil will follow AFTER this drop. Way past $100 and, in all likelihood, past $200. https://t.co/gQM2gxLmhQ — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) April 9, 2025 Something like this (priced in …
Talk about a shift in sentiment: The 10-year note yield now pushing above 4.20% while the S&P 500 falls -4.5% in 3 hours. Yields are ABOVE levels seen before "Liberation Day." Once again, bond markets are telling us something. pic.twitter.com/zOQcikVObA — Adam Kobeissi (@TKL_Adam) April 8, 2025 FHA delinquencies are skyrocketing, 15.11% of all FHA …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing and rental properties are simply unaffordable. Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try). Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home …
Summary: The University of Michigan’s final report shows five-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.1% in March, the highest since February 1993. Consumer sentiment plunged 12% from February, reaching its weakest level since November 2022. Two-thirds of respondents expect unemployment to increase over the next year. Major U.S. equity indices dropped sharply following the release, with …
by confoundedinterest17 Thank God President Auto Pen is out of office! Inflation? Lower real wage growth? Excessive personal loan growth?? All resulting in historic subprime auto loan delinquency rate of 6.6%. Auto Loan 60+ Day Delinquency Index
Home delistings reached a nine-year high in December after the market was inundated with sellers but not enough buyers. An influx of housing inventory has left homeowners pulling their listings off the market at a high rate as there are not enough buyers to keep up with sellers. Home delistings in December spiked 64% from a …
🚨 D.C. IN FULL MELTDOWN MODE! 🚨 Ever since D.O.G.E. (Department of Governmental Examination) started sniffing around government agencies, something HILARIOUS has happened: Google searches in Washington, D.C. have EXPLODED for:🔍 “Swiss bank account… but, like, discreet?”🔍… pic.twitter.com/nH4eLfDCyZ — Devil Dog (@The_Jtoms101) February 14, 2025 All of those “Gold bars being thrown off the Titanic” …
Wow. Notable drop in consumer sentiment in February. American consumers do not like tariffs. "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 27% last month and less than 2% prior to the election." "This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such… pic.twitter.com/SpjN6uanoX — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) February 7, 2025 …
UK. Pound collapses. Bond yields soar. No one resigns. Britain's Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis.https://t.co/VUYnXhYiNB pic.twitter.com/eVCX6gaoXq — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 9, 2025 Britain’s Bond Turmoil Invokes Memory of 1976 Debt Crisis Soaring yields prompt some comparisons with Truss debacle But the economy’s woes may be more similar to IMF bailout era …
Credit card companies wrote off $46B in seriously delinquent loan balances in just the first 9 months of 2024. 50% increase YoYHighest in 14 years pic.twitter.com/IH3yW47xHq — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) January 3, 2025 Linkhttps://t.co/wD6lnwO923 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 3, 2025 Auto loan delinquency rates are at their highest in more than a decade, per …
Another Biden Miracle: Odds rising on a recession as defaults soar 50% 🤯 https://t.co/h4xXSsJVzE — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) December 30, 2024 Volatility-based breakout signals risk-off scenario, reminiscent of COVID-19 and 2008 crises. A breakout pattern based on volatility has just triggered a warning signal similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 crash. …
by confoundedinterest17 The Biden/Harris economy is a disaster. After last month’s catastrophic JOLTS report, which was a disaster across the board, and which was meant to give the Fed a green light to cut rates more after Biden won the election (which he didn’t, but the Fed still had to cut even if Trump is …
Banks in China are foreclosing on a growing number of apartments after homeowners could not pay their mortgages, as the country’s housing crash threatens the financial system. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/business/china-foreclosures-mortgages.html
“Stock markets to fall 50% or more as gold and silver rise by hundreds of percent. Quite a few people disagreeing with the attached post, and even saying 0% chance. Please study the evidence. It’s becoming highly likely” Stock markets to fall 50% or more as gold and silver rise by hundreds of percent. Quite …
by Mike Shedlock The discrepancy between housing starts and completions is the largest since 1980. Let’s discuss. Data from the Census Department, calculation and chart by Mish The DotCom bust was unrelated to housing. Most recessions impact housing or housing busts lead to recession. The single-family stats aren’t good, but they aren’t as bad. Single …