The scary part isn't the 14%. The scary part is the context of 2011 vs today.
In 2011, defaults hit 14% because unemployment was at 9%. Today, we are hitting 14% while unemployment is supposedly 'low.'
It proves the 'Vibecession' is real: Consumers have jobs, but the jobs don't… pic.twitter.com/gTnf9b9i97
— The Quantified Universe (@TheQuantUni) May 23, 2026
70% of GDP is from the Consumer.
Good luck on squeezing more "Growth" out of the Consumer as their Real Personal Income is declining – and 59% of US Consumers cannot cover a 1000 USD emergency bill.
At some point "analysts" will realize that the Real Economy is not about what… https://t.co/8SRdoAm3wk
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) May 24, 2026
The health of the Economy is set by the health of the Consumer.
Around 70% of the USD GDP is generated by the US Consumer.
And the Consumer is in a terrible state. Probably in the worst condition – ever!
So – no! The Economy and the Stock Market will not continue to move… pic.twitter.com/yqS0xzDY7F
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) May 24, 2026
This doesn’t feel like some normal lagging indicator anymore. It looks like a lot of Americans are finally hitting the wall after years of inflation, debt, and rising costs eating away at their finances.
That 14% number is ugly because once delinquencies start turning into real defaults, people are going to realize how much of the post pandemic economy was held together by borrowing and stimulus instead of actual financial stability.