Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
$VIX is making higher low since Dec. it's something to keep in mind. pic.twitter.com/LFCwYu8vUs — SwingTrader (@SwingTraderQ) January 23, 2026 I'm guess I missed some news or something because the dollar is getting hit even against the KRW and MYR pic.twitter.com/w7X46ZzfVh — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 23, 2026 So much for a quiet Friday …
Business owner: I have seen a constant increase of 25-50% in the cost of our equipment because of tariffs. Our most recent project, I received a $30,000 tariff bill. That cost was never forecasted and could have never been anticipated for. For a new small business, that kind of… pic.twitter.com/MaRaZ4qv2X — FactPost (@factpostnews) January 22, …
As Americans’ wallets start to feel the weight of tariffs, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the bill is soon coming due. “You start to see some of the tariffs creep into some of the prices,” Jassy said in an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “Some sellers are deciding …
When silver and platinum explode together, you’re watching the quiet part of the market finally roar. *SPOT PLATINUM JUMPS 2% TO HIT NEW RECORD HIGH OF $2,332.95/OZ pic.twitter.com/QrXQRbcVQo — Investing.com (@Investingcom) December 24, 2025 #Silver surges above long-term channel resistance. Momentum is accelerating as the price enters a new zone after years of compression. If …
via notayesmanseconomics As we approach Christmas the pace has really picked up in economics and financial markets and let me start my look at the UK with an international perspective. TOKYO (Kyodo) — The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond hit 2.020 percent on Friday, its highest level since August 1999, after the Bank …
A significant number of stillbirths are happening in pregnancies the medical system labels as safe and at a higher rate in the U.S. than previously reported, according to a new study led by researchers at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Mass General Brigham. The study… https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2840578 A Harvard summary https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/stillbirths-in-the-u-s-higher-than-previously-reported-often-occur-with-no-clinical-risk-factors/ h/t A …
Was Friday the start of a bigger pullback for stocks?$VIX Term Structure fell below 0.79 on Thursday. Volatility was too low. This only happened 3 other times in the past 4 years. Each case was followed by at least a -10% correction for $SPX pic.twitter.com/vDxvJRwZLY — Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) December 14, 2025 JAN 2008. Markets …
Ladies and Gentlemens, the Shiller PE just hit its highest level in 25 years. The second most overvalued market in history. Back then rates were rising; now we're cutting. LOL Guess what happens next. pic.twitter.com/4LyzObR7Ca — The Great Martis (@great_martis) December 10, 2025 Just In: The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates 25bps (as expected) to …
by Michael It is getting very hard to deny that the U.S. economy is moving in the wrong direction. Yesterday, ADP reported that the U.S. economy shed tens of thousands of jobs last month. Today, Challenger, Gray & Christmas is reporting that U.S. employers announced a grand total of 1.17 million job cuts through the first 11 …
JUST IN: Amazon launches its new Trainium3 AI chip to rival Nvidia and Google, and says it’s more "cost effective" than Nvidia's. The Trainium3 chip has up to 4.4× higher performance and 4× more memory bandwidth. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance Amazon stock surged after the tech giant unveiled its new in-house AI chip, Trainium3. The company claims …
The wannabe real estate moguls going bust Mom-and-pop landlords built real estate empires using under-the-radar DSCR loans. Now it’s coming back to bite them. Applying for a home loan is a pain. You have to produce a heap of documents — bank statements, tax returns, employment records, tallies of investment accounts — to prove the …
Will VIX explode higher again in 2025? byu/DesmondMilesDant inWallStreetbetsELITE Carry trade is the main risk as far as short term volatility goes imo, if BOJ raises and the U.S. fed cuts we could be in for an Aug 2024 style flash sale. Why didn’t they cut the rates when markets fell -30% to start the …
The irrational policies of the German elite have been harming not only Germany itself but also all of Europe for years. And yet, there's no sign of a clear sobering up. This is fertile ground for awakening various demons in society and feeding externally funded schemers. pic.twitter.com/jmz8jdZehd — Will Not Live Twice (@pablobojar) December 2, …
Regional banks now hold almost one-third of all U.S. commercial mortgages and a majority of non-owner-occupied CRE, and “latent distress” is about 4X larger than what current delinquency rates imply.🧵 CRE: ~ $4.8 T Consumer debt: $5.58T (auto: $1.66T, Student loan: $1.65 T) 1. Chief Risk Officer of a regional bank admitted on the call …
$VIX looks calm, but the rate of change is not. Higher lows, higher closes, and a seven-month high while the market sits a few percent off all-time highs. The tape is tightening, not relaxing. pic.twitter.com/InUuwhFXkH — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) November 27, 2025 can i have the permission to chart vix future? pic.twitter.com/IRJxCWvuCL — …
Overall, unemployment is rising across white-collar roles, and fresh college graduates are facing one of the toughest job markets in years. Even Harvard MBA graduates aren’t exempt.Yet the market continues to sit near all-time highs. https://t.co/HR4KSgoP44 — optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 25, 2025 Today’s rally has all the hallmarks of a bearish setup. As I mentioned …
A.I DEBT BUBBLE Amazon (AMZN): The highest total debt at $160.4 billion. Microsoft (MSFT): Total debt stands at $120.4 billion, Meta Platforms (META): $51.1 billion in total debt Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL): $44.2 billion total debt, CoreWeave (CRWV): Total debt at approximately $14 billion (extreme leverage- Insurance spreads have skyrocketed and default bets sit at 40% next …
via notayesmanseconomics It is time to look at Nihon or the land of the rising sun again. What we are seeing there is that again it looks to be pushing the boundaries of monetary and fiscal policy. Let us start with monetary policy and here is Reuters from just under a week ago. A Bank …
Everything feels worn thin. People aren’t hiding it anymore. “Oh, F*ck Off!’ Democrats Rage at ‘Pathetic’ Shutdown ‘Betrayal’ in Mass Backlash… Democrats across the spectrum lashed out at leadership after the deal was announced, calling it a sellout and a pathetic betrayal of promises made to voters… one progressive lawmaker said the agreement ‘gives away …
DXY has entered a strong uptrend here. Everything is pointing towards more pain at this point. pic.twitter.com/PX6VTfQZpi — Ted (@TedPillows) October 30, 2025
That gap in growth tells a bigger story. Mississippi and West Virginia passing France and Germany in GDP per person shows the old balance is breaking apart. America’s roughest states are still grinding, building, producing, while Europe keeps talking in circles about what used to work. The energy boom and tech push here run on …
via Phoenix Capital Research The single best predictor of future inflation is SCREAMING that another inflationary storm is coming. The Fed focuses on two inflation measures: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). There are two MAJOR problems with this: Both measures of inflation have numerous gimmicks designed to UNDER-state the true …
Key reasons cited by respondents include: Soaring tuition costs, which many say are out of reach for average families. Poor job preparation, with skepticism about whether degrees translate into real-world skills. Concerns over free speech and ideological bias, particularly among conservative respondents. Doubts about the return on investment, especially as student debt remains high and …
Institutional knows when to bail. They milked the housing game for all it was worth. Now we get to watch inventories rise as retail is left holding the bag. https://t.co/DWGLugCHZk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 21, 2025 🚨 *IT'S `PARTY LIKE IT'S 1999' IN CREDIT MARKETS: JIM CHANOS — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 22, 2025 …
by Michael Did we just witness the economic trigger event that will cause the dramatic stock market crash that we were just warned about? On Friday, U.S. stock prices absolutely plummeted once President Trump announced that China’s new rare earth export restrictions would be countered by “a massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States. …
Gold is exploding to new all-time highs. The media is finally paying attention. But ask yourself: is it too late to buy gold? Or are we just seeing the beginning of something far more seismic? Is the new bull market in gold and silver just getting started? In this compelling interview, Jim Puplava sits down …
Why is PLTR stock crashing today? The much-needed modernization of the U.S. Army’s battlefield communications network being undertaken by Anduril, Palantir (PLTR.O), opens new tab and others is rife with “fundamental security” problems and vulnerabilities, and should be treated as a “very high risk,” according to a recent internal Army memo. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pRjAbZx8hE
US stocks are too expensive. International stocks have outperformed by a wide margin this year Treasury Bonds now have a higher yield than U.S. Stocks, a change from what we've seen over the last 20 years pic.twitter.com/GU2fcssmN4 — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025 RIP Morgan Stanley 🫡😂 https://t.co/PGL4x4pvEr — Barchart (@Barchart) October 1, 2025 Here …
Don’t worry, we got a 0.25 basis cut last month. That will fix everything. ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS COMES IN AT -32K JOBS VS +51K EXPECTED first time since 2020 for two consecutive months of negative private payrolls — amit (@amitisinvesting) October 1, 2025 Gold futures headed higher after the government shutdown begins: https://t.co/vXkwFulwUp — Reef …
France is staring at a fiscal standoff that feels less like governance and more like extortion. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has been told he cannot pass a budget or even remain in office without Socialist backing. Their price is blunt: a new “Zucman tax,” two percent annually on assets above one hundred million euros Reuters. …