Everyone is still talking about oil prices
That’s already outdated
–This is no longer a price shock
–It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026
~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
That flow is now constrained — by Iran AND US
And it’s not just oil—it’s the base layer of modern production:
fuel, fertilizer, plastics, much more— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026
We’ve seen the smaller version of this.
1973: ~7% supply disruption → shortages, rationing, industrial decline in under 90 days.
Today’s shock is larger.
The system is tighter — We are at Day 45— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026
The U.S. won’t be spared
Energy independence doesn’t protect a globally integrated economy
When supply chains seize, the shock transmits via trade reductions— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026
Watch one thing this week:
Ships through Hormuz
–Not statements
–Not markets
If flows don’t recover, the system tightens further — necessarily— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026
By the time shortages show up in headlines, it’s already too late
That’s how these shocks work
Full breakdown—mechanism, timeline, what happens next: new analysis: Escalation Trap substack— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026