Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael Those that boldly proclaimed that the global energy crisis was over have been proven dead wrong. Within the past 24 hours, the Iranians have attacked numerous commercial vessels that were attempting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have told the world over and over again that traffic through the Strait …
A lot happened overnight, but one pattern keeps showing up. Russia launched 68 missiles and 351 drones at Kyiv, killing at least 11 people in the second massive strike on the capital in less than a week. Ukraine says its Patriot missile interceptors are running low, raising a simple question. What happens if the attacks …
Central bank policies create hidden losses and distortions that favor elites over regular people. Paying high interest on reserves while holding long bonds flips normal central bank profits into losses. This keeps government borrowing cheap but builds bigger problems for the future. A former World Bank president warns that the Federal Reserve has lost over …
That 0.9% jump in May retail sales grabbed the headlines. But if you zoom out, the picture looks a lot less impressive. Earlier this year, retail sales were crawling along with 0.2% gains or barely moving at all. One stronger month doesn’t erase the fact that a lot of households have been slowing down for …
via schiffsovereign Every spring, the US government performs one of its rare acts of radical honesty: the Social Security Board of Trustees publishes an annual report stating, in plain language, exactly when the program will run out of money. It arrives without a press conference and with barely any news coverage — just a few …
Institutional hedging is surging as open interest on puts outweighs calls by over 3 to 1 Hyperscalers are dumping 650 billion into AI infrastructure but AI chip guidance is stalling Broadcom hit revenue targets but failed to raise full year AI guidance causing sector jitters Global smartphone semiconductor revenues are set to collapse 13 percent …
The company is allegedly buying its own gear. It marks those internal swaps as record revenue. This is a classic accounting trick to fool the market. It looks exactly like the fraud that destroyed Enron. The tech giants are just passing cash in a circle. They are pumping a bubble to hide the lack of …
Michael Burry calls Palantir a “sand castle supported by the AI narrative,” arguing sentiment is driving valuation more than fundamentals (IBTimes) Palantir falls in the same window despite broader market strength, reinforcing his near term downside view He points to a head and shoulders pattern forming in the stock, framing it as shifting bullish psychology …
From the latest PCE report The stock market keeps making headlines but a growing share of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, carrying more debt, and watching housing drift further out of reach. 40% of Americans cannot plan beyond their next paycheck and 46% do not even have $500 saved for emergencies. Those are not …
Reports across social platforms confirm a widespread drop in holiday spending, with neighborhood gatherings and retail traffic hitting lows not seen in decades. Empty parking lots at big-box retailers during what is traditionally a peak sales weekend signal that the American consumer is effectively tapped out. So 80% of the nation is basically experiencing a …
Hedge funds are dumping chip stocks at a record pace… Short exposure to U.S. equities has hit a 5-year high… Investors are betting that another Federal Reserve rate hike is inevitable… INVESTORS SEE HIGHER FED RATE HIKES RISK A Bank of America survey shows growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest …
32 year old law student single mom flashes four mugshots proudly on her own campaign page… Twerking for votes. Not a new thing. https://t.co/RRpCZYZaMO — joe miller (@JoeMiller4547) May 17, 2026 🇺🇸 Democratic congressional candidate in Michigan is going viral. Not for policy. For twerking on her kitchen counter on TikTok while running for office. …
Scholastic pushes anti-ICE books on kids calling America stolen land. Largest K-12 publisher teaches Mexican girl to reconquer and grab it back. Books make Donald Trump synonymous with fascism for school children. No assimilation, just take the land, Scholastic floods classrooms with this crap. Outrage is erupting after the Largest K-12 book publisher in America …
Trump drops 100 page ethics bomb, reveals he’s actively trading stocks like a hedge fund. Sitting president buys PLTR, HOOD, NVDA, SOFI while running the White House. Thousands of trades, no more hiding in index funds or treasuries, Trump goes full stock picker. Ethics office gets the receipts on president loading up on tech and …
This is getting ugly fast. Oil inventories crash toward zero by July, prices ready to explode. Crazy. This countries going to meltdown soon. Prices on food and gas are going to push people over the edge 💀 pic.twitter.com/U5Pd9UQ58Q — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 11, 2026 Lots of videos on TikTok of gas stations out of …
Official data now screams the economy is in freefall. Annual jobs numbers this low only happen in full-blown recessions. we are in a consumer recession for the bottom 80%. top 20% are crushing it. — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) May 8, 2026 "consumers are literally running out of money" — Heinz CEO You can’t budget your …
This photo is from 2022 that I posted on Facebook. Walmart’s been doing this for a very long time. pic.twitter.com/FiYS8nUMX5 — Gary Cochran (@GCochran24171) May 6, 2026
This is what a cornered regime does when it cannot sell its oil anymore. JUST IN: Iran just pulled a thirty-year-old empty supertanker out of retirement and began towing it toward Kharg Island. She is moving so slowly that a voyage that should take a day and a half is taking four days. Her name …
Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the internet situation actually is right now. Iran just published a map of every undersea internet cable running through the Strait of Hormuz. 97 percent of global internet traffic rides on undersea cables. Now watch the domino effect: → One… pic.twitter.com/FW8QQfwGfy — 🇺🇸 Ronald Carter (@USronaldcarter) April 23, 2026
Keep acting like the consumer is still strong and spending like nothing’s changed… and yeah, it’s going to look fine until it suddenly isn’t. Inflation still hot and people already stretched, that’s the kind of setup where things can roll over, but timing is always the tricky part. U.S. inflation picture is the worst in …
Palantir’s Maven Smart System just became an official Pentagon program of record, AKA, a central digital backbone of modern warfare. What it does: it pulls classified and commercial data together, runs AI computer vision models over it, and spits out targeting solutions for military assets in real time. Trump called its battlefield capabilities “exceptional.” AI …
GAS PRICES THREATEN TO ERASE TAX REFUND BOOST Refunds rose 14% YoY (avg. $3,462, +11%) but came in slightly below expectations, offering only a modest lift to consumption. A ~15% jump in gas prices (~$3.60+) could fully offset that gain, leaving overall consumer spending flat… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) April 15, 2026 GAS SPIKE SQUEEZES …
Everyone is still talking about oil pricesThat’s already outdated–This is no longer a price shock–It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock — Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026 ~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.That flow is now constrained — by Iran AND USAnd it’s not just oil—it’s …
Social Security is the nation’s largest social insurance program, making payments to approximately 75 million Americans every month. Yet the program faces an imminent funding shortfall. Social Security’s trust fund for retirement benefits may run out in 2032, which could prompt an across-the-board benefit cut, according to projections from the Social Security Administration and Congressional …
Iranian Missiles Sow Panic, Destruction In Israeli Towns Sheltering from an Iranian missile attack on his town in southern Israel on Saturday, 17-year-old Ido Franky heard “terrifying” blasts like nothing he had experienced before. An Iranian missile hit Franky’s town of Arad, hours after another struck Dimona — home to a nuclear facility — wounding …
Start up, Run and Shutdown of the 600 HP Snow Engine at Coolspring – June 2013 Start up, Run and Shutdown of the 600 HP Snow Engine at Coolspring – June 2013 600 HP Snow Natural Gas Pumping engine at Coolspring June 2013. Shown here is the start-up operation and shutdown of this most impressive …
We’re about out of time folks. Panic is starting slow but will begin to accelerate soon. Won’t affect the US right away but soon enough goods we depend on won’t be available. 🇦🇺 107 petrol stations across New South Wales are out of diesel after panic buying. Australia said it wouldn't send ships to help …
Something is breaking, and it is not isolated. It is spreading, layer by layer, system by system, market by market, and now governments are quietly telling people to change how they live. Start with the center of it all, the energy system. Iran just launched drone strikes on Kuwait’s largest refinery while Israel hit the …
Fuel remains scarce at many service stations across Thailand, even though reserves are more than adequate, amid continuing problems with delivery bottlenecks and unusually high demand, officials said on Thursday. The Ministry of Energy surveyed 2,649 service stations from Sunday to Tuesday and found that 1,912 had completely or nearly run out of some kinds …
