Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael Without sufficient quantities of oil, the global economy will not be able to operate normally. So the fact that the global economy is running a massive “oil deficit” right now should deeply alarm all of us. Even since the war with Iran began, the world has been consuming far more oil than it …
by Michael We have never faced anything quite like this. Diesel fuel and fertilizer have become far more expensive as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and extreme weather is playing havoc with crops all over the planet. Here in the United States, we just experienced the driest first three months of a …
by Michael On Monday morning, the front page of the Drudge Report featured a very alarming two word headline in all capital letters: “INFLATION ACCELERATES”. Of course that headline was 100% accurate. Prices are rising and our seemingly endless cost of living crisis is beginning to accelerate once again. I have heard from many of …
by Michael They aren’t telling you the truth about what is coming. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, and there is no way that is going to happen, oil production will not return to pre-war levels for years. In other words, we are facing an extended global energy crisis no matter what happens …
100 LITERS OF GAS for $1 in ‘decimated’ Iran 16 liters for the price of WATER BOTTLE. pic.twitter.com/ec9AVDuz3z — Neelotpal Srivastav (@NS_Neelotpal) April 27, 2026
by Michael Most people out there still seem to believe that the war in the Middle East will rapidly come to a conclusion and economic conditions will return to normal soon. Meanwhile, the price of physical oil is going absolutely nuts, the price of fertilizer is going absolutely nuts, and we are being warned that …
NEW: The International Energy Agency chief is sounding the alarm that Europe is running out of fuel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade: "We have maybe 6 weeks or so of jet fuel left… I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from City A to City …
Everyone is still talking about oil pricesThat’s already outdated–This is no longer a price shock–It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock — Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026 ~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.That flow is now constrained — by Iran AND USAnd it’s not just oil—it’s …
by Michael Where do we go from here? Peace talks with Iran have totally failed, and there appears to be no hope that the gaps between the demands that the U.S. is making and the demands that Iran is making can be bridged. There are several key issues that both sides are not willing to …
Food next. https://t.co/7dRfXx7LBj — RecessionALERT (@RecessionAlert) April 6, 2026
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-04-01/us-ai-data-center-expansion-relies-on-chinese-electrical-equipment-imports Companies like Amazon, Oracle, Meta, Google, and OpenAI have committed over 600B this year to building out datacenters. However, electrical power components like transformers, switchgears, and batteries, are not able to keep up with demand. Exports of these critical parts have increased coming out from China, but it isn’t enoughto meet the unsatiable demand …
by Michael Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened tomorrow, and that is certainly not going to happen, we are being warned that the economic impact of this war will be felt all the way through the end of this decade. A lot of energy infrastructure has already been destroyed during this war, and it …
by Michael Are we really going to go through this again? It appears that the Iranians are absolutely determined to keep traffic through the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed until they get what they want. In order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an absolutely massive military operation would be required, and perhaps we will see …
FOOD CRISIS BEGINS: Supply chain already being affected by US/Israel-Iran war, and guess who’s ready to step in and profit with fake-meat alternative proteins? Bill Gates and the state of Israel have a plan to feed the world when WWIII-driven famine hits and people can no longer afford to buy dwindling supplies of meat, fish, …
by Michael Why is the mainstream media in the United States being so quiet about this? All over the globe, very serious shortages of oil and gas are starting to occur. The information that I am about to share with you is extremely alarming. Unfortunately, if this war continues for an extended period of time …
HAVANA — Yonelkys García, 44, a housewife and mother of two, finds it so difficult to travel to the hospital to treat her acute myeloid leukemia that she now stays at the facility one week at a time. García has been in treatment for over a year at the Institute of Hematology and Immunology and …
by Michael If commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, we will witness a global food crisis on a scale that many experts would have once considered to be unthinkable. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been much written about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has …
Something strange is happening across the American economy right now. Not one single dramatic collapse. Not one headline catastrophe. Instead, pressure is building in several completely different corners of the system at the exact same time. Transportation. Consumer debt. Labor shortages. Monetary policy. Individually these developments might look manageable. But when you line them up …
By the end of the week, Democrats will be responsible for millions of Americans losing their food stamps due to their refusal to pass a clean continuing resolution to fund the federal government amid day number 29 of the shutdown. Already, working-class households are turning to food banks nationwide, and some of these free food …
Something ugly is happening inside America’s car market. The same people who turned chip shortages into record profits are now watching their own credit machine seize up. Automakers kept prices high, banks kept pushing loans longer, and everyone pretended buyers could keep up. Now the math has stopped working. The cracks started in the same …
by Michael Did we just witness the economic trigger event that will cause the dramatic stock market crash that we were just warned about? On Friday, U.S. stock prices absolutely plummeted once President Trump announced that China’s new rare earth export restrictions would be countered by “a massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States. …
In Mike Maloney’s latest video, he reveals how gold’s “lifeboat moment” may have just begun. Small gold bars are vanishing from shelves in Japan, central banks are quietly stockpiling at a record pace, and futures just crossed $4,000 for the first time ever.
President Trump is turning up the heat on Tokyo. With the July 9 tariff deadline closing in, he’s made it clear that Japan could face new duties of 30% to 35% on exports to the United States. The warning came during a press briefing and was later echoed on Truth Social, where Trump accused Japan …
Picture 2008 again. The fear on screens. The system breaking. Now pause. The difference today is quieter and darker. The collapse arrives in data points, not alarms. Start with labor. The working‑age population between 25 and 54 is now shrinking in absolute terms. That means fewer workers, fewer new households, fewer buyers. Without a growing …
Listen to the head of the Port of Los Angeles. No single person is getting more real time data about the economy than this guy. He says we are fucked. pic.twitter.com/QNmJc8FKw4 — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 3, 2025 h/t telling it straight
The United States imported 438 billion dollars worth of goods from China in 2024. All of a sudden, most of that trade is being cut off. Tariffs on Chinese goods are now so high that it no longer makes economic sense for Chinese companies to export products to us, and it no longer makes economic …
by Michael The United States imported 438 billion dollars worth of goods from China in 2024. All of a sudden, most of that trade is being cut off. Tariffs on Chinese goods are now so high that it no longer makes economic sense for Chinese companies to export products to us, and it no longer makes …
by Michael We are about to find out what happens when thousands of very popular products are suddenly no longer available for sale. A lot of Amazon shoppers have been shocked to learn that some of their favorite products have already disappeared. In fact, there are entire stores on Amazon that are now completely gone. …
by Michael We just received some very serious news. The extremely deadly D1.1 strain of the H5N1 bird flu which has been ripping through the nation’s poultry population in recent weeks has now gotten into the cattle population in the state of Nevada. This is the very first time that cattle in the U.S. have ever …
The global bullion market is seeing major dislocations amidst unprecedented demand for physical delivery. Some industry experts said these disruptions may be expediting a supply squeeze in the silver market that will lead to a spike in prices… By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals and the …