The latest run of global economic data points increasingly toward a synchronized slowdown in which cyclical weakness is colliding with long-standing structural constraints.
The result is growing evidence that policy transmission is breaking down across key economies. China’s contractionary signals are intensifying, US labor and housing data continue to drift downward despite headline stability, and Japan’s persistent currency depreciation highlights the limits of interest rate differentials as a framework for understanding modern monetary (and the Eurodollar) dynamics.
These developments show a global system hitting multiple constraint points simultaneously, with weakening internal demand, impaired credit channels, and the return of eurodollar (monetary) scarcity shaping macro outcomes heading into 2026.
EDU’s Weekly Theme
https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/p/a-broken-policy-transmission
The latest run of global economic data points increasingly toward a synchronized slowdown in which cyclical weakness is colliding with long-standing structural constraints.
The result is growing evidence that policy transmission is breaking down across key economies. China’s… pic.twitter.com/T56uIZJAKe
— Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) December 7, 2025
You can see what happens to heavy truck sales prior to recessions. They collapse. That’s what we’re continuing to see from recent sales.
There are many indicators, charts and data points that people use to try and identify recessions ahead of time. To me, this is one of the… pic.twitter.com/E5juVF9ih8
— Eric Soda (@EricSoda) December 7, 2025
JUST IN 🚨: Japan's 20-Year Bond Yield hits 2.947%, the highest level since 1998 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/QVmHTV399w
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 8, 2025
Everything’s falling apart at once China, US, Japan all signal trouble, get ready for a messy 2026.