Emerging market stocks, long fueled by global trade, are now showing cracks as export momentum fades. Investors may be walking into the late stages of a rally built on weakening foundations. If trade continues to contract, the ripple effects could hit supply chains and markets worldwide with surprising speed.
Global exports are heading into contraction.
The period of shipments frontloading due to US import tariffs is over. The chart shows that the Contex Shipping Index is rapidly decelerating. It is pointing to a relapse in global exports.
Global trade is the main driver of EM… pic.twitter.com/hagKuXEUPW
— Arthur Budaghyan (@BudaghyanArthur) August 30, 2025