Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Oh look, the Supreme Court just shrugged and said “yeah sure, redraw the damn map” while California sharpens the political knife like it’s a backyard butcher shop, this isn’t democracy, it’s PowerPoint politics with a ruler and a bias, everyone pretending this is about fairness… — Dan Brisbois (@Dan_Brisbois) February 4, 2026 SCOTUS didn’t tell …
A self-described foodie, social butterfly and New Yorker for 20 years, Lina Axmacher has long loved exploring the city’s famed restaurant culture. Then she started Ozempic. She lost her appetite — “my desire for cocktails and desserts and anything sweet” — and also more than 20 pounds (9.1 kilograms) in less than two months. But …
Emerging market stocks, long fueled by global trade, are now showing cracks as export momentum fades. Investors may be walking into the late stages of a rally built on weakening foundations. If trade continues to contract, the ripple effects could hit supply chains and markets worldwide with surprising speed. Global exports are heading into contraction. …
Prices climbed faster than paychecks again this quarter. Beef just broke $6.12. Social Security faces a mandatory 24% slash starting January 2033. And 40% of U.S. workers now earn less than the inflation-adjusted cost of living. Indeed’s real-pay tracker posted a July spike. 43% of Americans are losing ground on purchasing power. March’s level was …
Labor market stays warm signs of slowdown below the surface… BLS HOT HOT HOT!: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in state government and health care. Federal government continued to… — Sold …
Chinese researchers have unearthed a powerful vulnerability buried deep inside one of the deadliest forms of cancer. At the heart of liver cancer’s survival lies a fuel-sharing system powered by lactate, a metabolic byproduct once dismissed as cellular waste. It turns out these tumors are anything but wasteful. They thrive on lactate, pumping it across …
by confoundedinterest17 The song “Running on Empty” by Jackson Browne comes to mind when analyzing the state of American banking, especially regional banks. Yesterday we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge ($290BN in six weeks), and more importantly, regional banks’ usage of The Fed’s BTFP bailout facility surged to a new record high (even …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm Look at how M1 and M2 are shrinking! Money Stock Measures. Billions of dollars unless otherwise noted. M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, …
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation is a killer to the middle class and low-wage worker. Yet there are always apologists for terrible Federal spending and Federal Reserve monetary policies. Like Alex Bereson with his “How we stopped inflation without a recession (hint: by not stopping inflation).” Before I look at Berenson’s plea for more inflation, let’s see where …
In the meantime: The Fed continues to pretend that it can shrink its balance sheet size and watch the cost of government debt rise, all while the US grapples with a 12% twin deficit. After marking the end of a 40-year bull market in Treasuries, this upward move in 10-year… pic.twitter.com/DovYOOrn1a — Otavio (Tavi) Costa …