It's interesting to see some people claim inflation is slowing.
The equal-weighted commodities index is up 12% in the past year.
That’s real-world inflation.
Meanwhile, US money supply just hit a new high, and the dollar is weakening sharply against other currencies, including… pic.twitter.com/xYS56p7DeX
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 9, 2025
Commodities surged 12% year-over-year. Money supply just hit $22.02 trillion—a record. Dollar’s weakening against EM currencies. Groceries, housing, healthcare are out of control expensive.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/money-supply-m2 https://economics.bmo.com/media/filer_public/ac/87/ac870149-5ba3-406a-be1d-4b5283836af3/commoditiesoutlook.pdf
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-1-2025
Tariffs just hit 17.3% average. Highest since 1935. Trump calls it “reciprocal.” Retailers call it “unworkable.” Inventories dried up. New stock costs more. CPI’s about to pop.
“Most imports into the United States will now face a baseline 10% duty, with the overall average effective tariff rate rising to more than 17% — the highest since 1935, during the Great Depression.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-tariffs-latest-round-takes-effect-thursday-august-7-2025-rcna223461
Shoes up 40%. Apparel up 38%. Coffee, cars, furniture—same story. Walmart’s not absorbing it. Trump’s already blaming them.
“Tariff increases are expected to add nearly $400 per household to annual grocery bills alone.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-tariffs-inflation-impact-consumers-11692014503
That $400 hike covers groceries only. The full inflationary cost of tariffs hits typical households around $2,400 per year across all goods. That’s a serious bite.
“Yale’s Budget Lab calculates that the inflationary effect of tariffs will cost a typical household an average of as much as $2,400 this year.” https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-1-2025
Trump’s tweet: “Billions of dollars in tariffs are now flowing into the United States of America!” Midnight post. Markets didn’t move. Groceries did.
Healthcare inflation? BLS says it’s falling. But they don’t price premiums. They track insurer profits. That’s the index.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/medical-care.htm
The BLS’ calculation that healthcare costs have declined over the past five years utterly beggars credulity, Arnott says. The agency comes to that conclusion from an estimation of insurers’ profits. “That’s insane,” he declares.’ 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/eDCNdVoNUZ
— Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 9, 2025
Trump says tariffs are working. But the math says: +12% commodities +40% shoes +38% clothes +0% credibility.