Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Good chips, bad quarter, everyone panics anyway. One of the biggest indicators of the need for non AI based chips…. “Net Sales- Corporate and Other: $12 million versus $14.87 million estimated by two analysts on average. Compared to the year-ago quarter, this number represents a -47.8% change.” Toasted and people are freaking… — Financial Spiderplant …
Hotter inflation proves you can’t print your way out of rising prices. Inflation is diverging across regions of the US: Pacific Coast states such as California, Oregon, and Washington saw inflation rates above +3.1% in July, according to BLS data. Northeast states like Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New York also experienced… pic.twitter.com/O55X8qibCY — …
$UNH has filed for 26% increase in ACA rates for the next year. Even $OSCR filed for 21% increase. Healthcare companies are set to see a V-shaped margin recovery next year. It’s currently the cheapest S&P 500 sector at 16 times earnings.$UNH $ELV $OSCR $CNC $CI pic.twitter.com/TNVe6EpqqU — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) August 13, 2025 https://twitter.com/longoption/status/1955331322852876338 …
One in seven Americans now use BNPL to buy groceries The number of Americans using BNPL services like Klarna, Affirm, and Afterpay for food has surged. A LendingTree survey found that 25 percent of BNPL users are using the loans for groceries—up from 14 percent last year. This isn’t budgeting. It’s survival. “A quarter of …
U.S. July CPI: Core Inflation Hits 3.1 Percent Year Over Year Headline CPI rose 0.2 percent month over month, matching expectations. Year-over-year inflation came in at 2.7 percent, just below the 2.8 percent estimate. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent month over month and 3.1 percent year over year, beating the 3.0 percent forecast. The Fed …
by Michael Why are social media platforms filled with videos of Americans complaining about grocery prices right now? Needless to say, those videos must be striking a chord, because some of them are receiving millions of views. Government bureaucrats are telling us that the cost of food is only going up a few percentage points …
It's interesting to see some people claim inflation is slowing. The equal-weighted commodities index is up 12% in the past year. That’s real-world inflation. Meanwhile, US money supply just hit a new high, and the dollar is weakening sharply against other currencies, including… pic.twitter.com/xYS56p7DeX — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 9, 2025 Commodities surged 12% …
by Michael Are you old enough to remember when you could buy a really nice house for less than $50,000? Today, the average price of a home in the United States is more than half a million dollars. Of course everything else has become dramatically more expensive as well. I just asked Google, and I …
Trump claims he’s cut drug prices by “1,500 percent” pic.twitter.com/n9meMZxS6R — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 4, 2025
by Michael Have the official employment numbers finally achieved peak fakeness? We just got another perfect example of why so many of us have completely lost faith in the fake figures that government bureaucrats have been feeding us. For months we were told that employment was booming, but now we are being told that just the opposite is …
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration_second_term/trump_approval_index_history_second_term
ASML reported net sales of 7.7 billion euros ($8.95 billion) in the second quarter, ahead of estimates. However, the company said it cannot confirm that it will grow in 2026. ASML is one of the most critical semiconductor supply chain companies in the world. ASML on Wednesday warned of the possibility of no growth in …
⚠️US stock market concentration Bubble is huge: The top 10 largest S&P 500 stocks reflect ~38% of the index market capitalization, just shy of a RECORD high. This is over 10 percentage points higher than at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak. The market is dependent on few stocks. pic.twitter.com/7jfzEfhx6L — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June …
Also https://t.co/0RzE8ZIQeM — Abhijeet Patra (@abhijeetpatra88) June 11, 2025
1) In April 2025, home values in California sank -0.42% on a monthly basis, which was the 4th biggest decline in the U.S. It was the 4th straight month where values declined. pic.twitter.com/7AJOCLS3jM — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 10, 2025 3) The state now has over 73,000 listings on the market, which is the highest …
Inflation is cooling faster than expected, sending shockwaves through financial markets. The latest Consumer Price Index report shows prices rose just 0.1 percent in May, falling short of the 0.2 percent forecast. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, also came in lower at 0.1 percent, well below the expected 0.3 percent. The annual …
Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) is set to draft a constitutional amendment that will oust every member of Congress when the federal deficit exceeds 3% of GDP. A plan backed by Elon Musk. In a 2011 interview, billionaire Warren Buffett first proposed the now-famous plan. “I could end… pic.twitter.com/oKPl31TLlV — RedWave Press (@RedWavePress) June 5, 2025
Daily US users of Chinese discount e-commerce platform Temu fell 58% in May following the White House’s elimination of the “de minimis” trade provision that allowed tariff-free shipping of low-value packages from China, according to market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. The dramatic user decline reflects mounting challenges for PDD Holdings’ global platform amid escalating US-China …
pic.twitter.com/Uc8Ndc22Gw — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) May 31, 2025 In fact Canada only has 2 main industry- oil and wood 🪵 If global recession comes and oil goes below $40 and housing market crashes , Canada unemployment will go above 20% all within 3 years from now . https://t.co/1pm96R2cND — tic toc (@TicTocTick) May 31, 2025 …
The UK government’s attempt to raise revenue through higher capital gains taxes has backfired, triggering an exodus of high-net-worth individuals and a 10 percent drop in net tax collections. Officials had anticipated increased revenue, but instead, the policy has led to fewer taxable transactions and a shrinking tax base. This is a textbook example of …
$TEM DOWN OVER 16% AFTER SPRUCE POINT SHORT REPORT Spruce alleges AI drives just 2% of revenue, cites questionable leadership and aggressive accounting — sees 50–60% downside 👀 pic.twitter.com/ONPxUYyYQM — Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) May 28, 2025 Tempus AI is facing a sharp selloff after Spruce Point Capital released a scathing short report questioning the company’s …
It was bound to happen. You could feel it in the way people searched. The old habits weren’t working anymore. After nearly twenty years of digital supremacy, Google’s dominance in search is no longer unshakable. For the first time since 2015, its market share has dipped below 90 percent and stayed there. This isn’t a …
June 1st marked the day President Trump’s 50 percent tariffs on European goods officially kicked in. Many retail traders expected the tariffs to be delayed or rolled back and kept buying stocks. That assumption misses the bigger picture. The European Union is in a strong position. With closer ties to China and a need to …
One of the oddest things in the House budget bill was cutting the private market incentives in energy markets. 81% of incremental power generation will be crippled by that single stroke of the pen. How do we compete in AI and compete against China? They have an abundance of… pic.twitter.com/QOALsBwLum — Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) May …
Private Credit is where the next systemic financial risk is going to emerge from. Just a complete scam industry. Fake valuations. Pretending things are par when they are clearly not. Lending to garbage companies. And… it’s all being financed by debt from commercial banks (since banks can’t lend like this anymore after 2008). Private credit …
👀 Famed short seller, Jim Chanos is going long BTC, shorting MSTR. At Sohn Conference, he said: “We’re buying Bitcoin, selling MicroStrategy stock—an arbitrage play, buying for $1, selling for $2.50.” Betting against MSTR’s premium. pic.twitter.com/PdN0mg5w9T — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) May 15, 2025
Unemployment 20-29 (2 year associate academic):.6%Unemployment 20-29 (2 year vocational):5.2%#econtwitter further thoughts? — Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) May 15, 2025 College was supposed to be the ticket. The path. The safety net that guaranteed something better. Parents took out loans. Students borrowed more. Politicians promised it was the only way to get ahead. And now, those …
US executives are getting more concerned about the economy: The share of S&P 500 companies mentioning “recession” during their Q1 2025 earnings calls spiked to 23%, the highest since 2022. This percentage has surpassed levels recorded in all years between 2008 and 2020, except for 2010. Additionally, 62% of US CEOs expect either a slowdown …
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1lDxLlrOkNaxm
Before the trade war began, American companies sending goods to China paid nothing in tariffs. That was the status quo. Zero tax. A smooth transaction from the U.S. to China. But that clean slate is long gone. Now, any American product sent to China carries a ten percent tax. That includes not just finished goods …