Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Over 89,000 electric trucks were sold in the first half of 2025, up 140% from the same period last year. China accounted for almost 80K of those, w/ sales in Europe making up most of the balance. h/t straightdge
The math is brutal, and yet no one is screaming it from the rooftops. Ninety-seven percent of all stocks are held by the top 10 percent of Americans. Half of all equities are concentrated in the hands of the top 1 percent. That leaves the bottom 90 percent with three percent, and if you do …
by Michael I am so glad that I am not a young adult looking for a job in this very difficult economic environment. Every month, federal bureaucrats tell us that the unemployment rate in this country is low, but at this point everyone knows that the numbers that they give us are fake. The reality of …
Week ending September 10 in Vaughan did not just nudge the market downward, it slammed it into a pit nobody wants to admit exists. Detached median sold price fell to $1.36 million, one of the lowest points anyone remembers, down 21 percent year-over-year, and every headline pretends this is just a seasonal wobble, as if …
Rent vs Wage Growth Data: “Since 2000, housing costs have been rising faster than median household income. Inflation-adjusted rents have grown steadily, to more than 20 percent above their 2000 level. Inflation-adjusted prices for single-family homes have grown even faster… In contrast, inflation-adjusted median household income barely rose over the whole time period.” Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/rent-house-prices-and-demographics …
The numbers are falling and with every poll, confidence across the country is bleeding away. Inside the White House, the quiet grows heavier, as if no one wants to admit what everyone already sees. Donald Trump’s job approval has dropped to 37 percent and his rating on the economy sits at 34 percent according to …
France is on the edge and everyone is pretending it is not. Debt is rising faster than the government can admit, deficits are stuck above 5 percent of GDP through 2027, and the debt-to-GDP ratio is on track to hit 121 percent by that same year https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-france-to-a-outlook-stable-12-09-2025 . That number does not just warn of …
by Michael When two-thirds of all the workers in your entire country are just barely scraping by from month to month, you have got a major crisis on your hands. For a long time, our standard of living has been going down and the middle class has been shrinking. But in recent years, those two …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, A Gallup poll shows the percentage of Americans saying college is “very important” has fallen to 35% Please note The Perceived Importance of College Hits New Low Americans have been placing less importance on the value of a college education over the past 15 years, to the point that about …
Larry Ellison climbed past Elon Musk because he forced the market to pay attention to what no one had expected. Oracle reported $455 billion in unfulfilled contracts, more than double what analysts predicted. Investors didn’t pause. They poured money into the stock before checking the numbers. Oracle’s shares jumped 30 percent in a single day, …
They can keep the whole thing afloat as long as they’d like The release valve is just the currency. Inflation is running at 3%-5% …and there's a 100% probability that the Fed cuts at least 25bps in ten days As if that wasn't bad enough, there's a 11% probability they do a jumbo 50bps cut …
Global confidence in the dollar is already fragile. Any serious move into gold signals that investors no longer trust Washington to manage debt or preserve purchasing power. This is more than a market event. It is a warning that the financial system is teetering on the edge and a crisis could ignite at any moment. …
German manufacturing didn’t falter, it imploded, and the numbers are not merely weak, they reveal deep structural decay. July’s industrial orders fell by 2.9 percent after an expected gain of 0.5 percent. June’s numbers were quietly revised downward, and the year-on-year decline reached 3.4 percent. The system is failing. The decline spreads across sectors and …
The housing market is collapsing, and buyers are running for the exits. They don’t wait. They don’t negotiate. They cancel. They saw the foundation crumble and refused to stand on it. This isn’t a seasonal hiccup. It’s a total retreat, and the institutions that built the illusion are powerless to stop it. “58,000 home-purchase agreements …
When you see a guaranteed 10% dividend, you have to ask the obvious question, how are they earning it? U.S. Treasuries are yielding about 4%. Anything paying more than double that is only possible if the company is taking outsized, hidden risks. There’s no free lunch in finance, the spread above the risk free rate …
The AI frenzy is setting the stage for a systemic financial implosion. Investors pouring billions into a technology that cannot deliver will leave banks, pension funds, and retirement accounts exposed. When the illusion of growth shatters, markets could crash, credit could tighten, and unemployment could spike as companies realize their AI investments are worthless. For …
Houses are everywhere, prices stop climbing, buyers rejoice eventually. Insanity. I don’t see how housing doesn’t struggle going forward. Wait until the boomers die off. There will be no one left that can afford to buy. https://t.co/aNWA55mzBY — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 31, 2025 Among all recent grads living at home, the divide between men …
Factories are shutting. Shops are closing. Workers are walking out under stress that has nowhere to go. The air smells of fear and exhaustion. Bank accounts are shrinking while bills climb. The institutions meant to protect us are either blind or complicit. Every metric screams warning. Every statistic is a cry ignored. The economy is …
The warning bells are deafening, yet most Americans refuse to listen. Our national airwaves have been weaponized. Two of the largest broadcast networks in the country are no longer news outlets. They are political tools, openly serving one party while pretending to serve the public. Donald Trump didn’t whisper this truth. He shouted it on …
If consumer demand is frozen and margins are squeezed, are stocks about to fall? Data and full report here: https://t.co/pxYDtGgI1a pic.twitter.com/Lp3Bzo280Z — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) August 20, 2025 Corporate bankruptcies are heading for a record high this year higher than any other down turn in US history Report link: https://t.co/pxYDtGgI1a pic.twitter.com/z0oWH6yzhp — The Coastal …
by Michael Other than the early months of the pandemic, we haven’t seen anything like this for a long time. Mass layoffs are happening all over the nation, major retailers and large restaurant chains are deeply struggling, and the cost of living is out of control. I am going to share more numbers with you today …
‼️US commercial real estate CRISIS in one chart: Office space vacancy rates hit ~20% in Q2 2025, the highest share on RECORD. Vacant office space has almost DOUBLED in 5 years. This is also WAY above the post-Great Financial Crisis peak. When will this stop? pic.twitter.com/5w73em8MBe — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) August 20, 2025 Another …
Target posted fiscal second-quarter earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company stuck by its full-year outlook, which forecasts a single percentage point decline in sales. Target named Michael Fiddelke as its new CEO, effective Feb. 1. Target beat Wall Street’s earnings and sales expectations and reaffirmed its outlook on Wednesday, even as …
BREAKING: Trump says D.C. restaurants are “bursting.” Reality check. After his Aug 11 police takeover, OpenTable shows seated diners in Washington fell 16% that day, then cratered 31% by Aug 13, and were still down around 20% through Aug 16. Restaurant Week kicked off Aug 18… pic.twitter.com/KtuMV2aYER — Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) August 19, 2025 WASHINGTON …
by Michael What I am about to share with you is some of the clearest evidence yet that the middle class in America is being systematically destroyed. Young adults are forming middle class households at an extremely depressed rate, and that is because the American Dream is simply out of reach for most of them in …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Trump’s support, even among Republicans is dropping. But does it matter? More Opposition than Support Pew reports Trump’s Tariffs and ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Face More Opposition Than Support Six months into his second term, public evaluations of President Donald Trump’s job performance have grown more negative. His job approval …
RepCloudTX hits the mark. COVID relief fraud? $280B vanished—half to foreign hackers. Trump flagged this economic ambush, but D.C. snoozed. Time to slash foreign aid and protect U.S. taxpayer cash. Enough with the globalist freebies. — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) February 12, 2025
Container shipping traffic from China to the US is falling again byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
United Parcel Service at $88–90 is often perceived as cheap because of the high dividend yield near 7.41 percent. At first glance the yield seems attractive, but the stock remains expensive because the dividend payout is nearly unsustainable. True value is likely to emerge only if dividends are reduced to a more sustainable level around …
Looks like gold just put PPI to shame. Gold has beaten producer price inflation by around 600% so far this century. We have also crossed the 'paradigm shift breakout line' as we forecast 6 years ago. pic.twitter.com/4bFoyujuwS — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) August 16, 2025 https://twitter.com/AlessioTMAD/status/1956709412602515634 Tariffs blamed for inflation spike core goods push consumer prices higher. …