Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
In early March, U.S. banks faced substantial unrealized losses, ominous figures hinting at potential disaster. At the end of 2022, these losses hit $1.7 trillion, nearly matching the total equity of U.S. banks, which stood at $2.1 trillion. Rising interest rates slashed the value of assets like U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, mainstays in bank …
Stagflation is when the economy experiences both high inflation and high unemployment. The last time America’s economy experience this was back in the 1970s. Many are now believing – including JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon – that stagflation could be returning in 2024 and 2025. This outcome would be the Federal Reserve’s and Jerome Powell’s worst …
In 2025, a tsunami of debt refinancing threatens to engulf countless companies, setting the stage for economic turbulence. The Fed’s missteps, once forgivable errors, now loom large like ominous clouds. First, they dismissed inflation as fleeting, then abruptly shifted course in December 2023, only to revert to their ‘higher for longer’ mantra. How can trust …
Americans are in limbo about where the housing market could go next, but they are resolute about the conditions for buying right now. Nearly 80% of Americans think it’s a bad time to buy a house, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), a survey gauging homebuying and selling confidence. The index …
Concerns arise over Federal Reserve’s handling of unemployment, with predictions of further damage to the labor market. Recent data signals a cooling labor market, evidenced by rising unemployment rates and increased part-time employment. Speculation mounts for additional Fed rate cuts as recession indicators intensify. Call Milli Vanilli because this shi* is getting real Now Fed …
Taylor Kenney discusses the Federal Reserve Domesday Book. Delve into its clandestine contents and learn how this secret collection of documents grants the Federal Reserve unparalleled authority to operate outside the law, leaving us vulnerable and questioning the limits of financial safeguards. From historical expansions to contemporary implications, we dissect the implications and arm you …
In a revelation that shatters conventional wisdom, the correlation between the S&P 500 performance and the Fed’s balance sheet since the Global Financial Crisis remains eerily stagnant. Beneath the surface lies a stark truth: the apparent market growth is a mirage, sustained solely by the relentless influx of liquidity orchestrated by central banks. As the …
Despite expectations of inflation tapering, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge surpasses 8%, highlighting ongoing economic strains. March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) records a significant uptick at 3.5%, the highest since September 2023, with Core CPI outperforming forecasts for four consecutive months at 3.8%. Amidst this backdrop, concerns loom over the sustainability of rising power …
by Graham Summers, MBA As I keep emphasizing, another round of inflation is coming. And the worst part? The Fed knows it, but is playing political games to boost the economy/ stock market for the Biden Administration. “But wait a minute, Graham,” you’re no doubt thinking, “the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is core-Personal Consumption Expenditures and that …
by confoundedinterest17 Chicago Illinois used to be a shiny toy. Soft’ survey data has been a bloodbath this week with regional Fed surveys all slumping and this morning’s Chicago PMI uglier than all expectations. That smashed ‘hope’ – the spread between hard and soft data – back to cycle lows… Source: Bloomberg Today’s Chicago PMI …
TMZ got footage of Diddy’s home getting raided 😳 pic.twitter.com/sRRbdN67vM — FearBuck (@FearedBuck) March 25, 2024 2:52 PM PT — The scene at Diddy’s Los Angeles-area home appears to be winding down, and a new photo obtained by TMZ shows just how bustling it was with law enforcement activity. Check out this picture … which …
Been saying this for several months now. The Fed didn't finish the job. They got spooked in late October (along with Treasury) about the rise in yields and term premiums and thus orchestrated a significant loosening of financial conditions to help the US govt finance its… https://t.co/5lMScZGtDD — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) March 13, 2024 The …
Give this a watch. What a fiasco. Pay attention to the realtor near the end. pic.twitter.com/bUlWKoPMes — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 6, 2024 The Federal Reserve’s actions might seem like a distant financial dance, but the effects are closer to home than you think. While banks have their strategies, insurance companies face a different tune …
“The Fed has a mostly bullshit mandate to keep prices “stable.” What they know is the higher the inflation, the richer them and all their friends get with ZERO effort or success. So how do they accomplish this? 1. They increase the target range of inflation from 0% to 1-2% 2. Once 2% is hard …
This happens literally every recession. Almost verbatim to 2007. Because lagging indicators haven't happened, there won't be a recession. No, you're just following the wrong indicators. https://t.co/xeL1VzHFq5 pic.twitter.com/NweH9HGy1K — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) February 27, 2024
via Mike Shedlock On average, the economy looks OK. But averages are misleading. Several large groups of people are struggling. They all have one thing in common. Case-Shiller home price index, CPI rent index, and the index of hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers. Who’s Unhappy? Those looking to buy a home but cannot …
by confoundedinterest17 As Commander Cody sang, “We have too much debt.” “The prices of some things will decline. Others will go up. But we don’t expect to see a decline in the overall price level,” said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Nvidia stock hitting new highs, its market cap soaring to $1.78trln. “That doesn’t tend to happen …
The USA is currently experiencing the longest and steepest yield curve inversion in recorded history between the 10-year Treasury Note and 3-month Treasury Bill. Historical data shows that such inversions have preceded economic recessions. The prolonged inversion is seen as “smart money” signaling skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s narrative on inflation. This skepticism raises questions …
by confoundedinterest17 Oh Susie QT. The Fed loves you. And The Fed has put a spell on the economy. Where do we sit today? Bank credit growth has been negative for the last 26 weeks. As M2 Money growth has stalled. What will The Fed do? While the FOMC may start the discussions around tapering QT …
Luckily, oil prices have fallen significantly from their highs. It's interesting that oil markets are not concerned about geopolitical tensions. This is offsetting some of the impact of higher shipping costs. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 16, 2024 https://twitter.com/spaghettimballs/status/1747306662032220188
Is this like saying a a 'stopped clock' is accurate twice a day? So halting QT will fulfil their 'normalisation' narrative @RobinWigg #Fed has painted itself into a corner and will need to do something when RRP finally empties. pic.twitter.com/ZpwtUYVjgY — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) January 9, 2024
Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer of Universa Investments, issues a stark warning about the Federal Reserve’s actions, claiming they’ve inflated the “greatest credit bubble in human history.” In a recent interview, Spitznagel painted a grim picture of the U.S. economy, predicting a mega inferno in the form of a major market crash within the next …
Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility. https://t.co/0Yt4STWbb9 pic.twitter.com/UYElYhjQxa — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 22, 2023 via Bloomberg: Banks borrowed …
via DAVID JENSEN: On December 13, 2023 the Fed U-turned from a staunch inflation fighting policy stance two weeks prior to signaling that it was preparing for rate cuts. This raised the question of what could have changed in two weeks to cause such a reversal. If we look at key metrics such as M2 …
🚨 Breaking: Federal 🖨️💵 💵 The Fed is injecting liquidity into the market through various facilities , raising concerns 📈 BTFP reaches a new record high, signaling heightened worries for banks 🔄 Repo 🖨️💵 on the rise, indicating stress in the financial plumbing. pic.twitter.com/ilmuMZSOpx — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) December 15, 2023
In a distressing revelation, the Federal Reserve anticipates three rate cuts next year, acknowledging the challenge posed by persistent inflation. The economic engine falters as demand plummets for homes, vehicles, and goods, painting a grim picture of financial distress among Americans. Once deemed a lifeline, credit cards are now avoided, sinking below pre-pandemic levels. Soaring …
The prospect of the Fed concluding its tightening raises questions about an imminent stock market boom, yet historical trends offer no definitive answers. Analyzing the S&P 500’s performance after past Fed peaks reveals a mixed picture, with the market experiencing both falls and rallies. The outcome hinges on the potential occurrence of a recession and …
In the last 120 years, when a country’s debt got really high, 98% of them ended up not being able to pay it back. Ken Griffin says the government can avoid this by printing more money, but it would mess up the economy really bad. A simple solution could be for Congress to spend less, …
via politico: NEW YORK — New York City Mayor Eric Adams is juggling a new crisis — in addition to the old ones. The expanding federal corruption investigation threatens to overshadow the challenge he spent much of the year confronting: a surge of more than 120,000 migrants that has overwhelmed city resources. The new campaign …
The Federal Reserve’s efforts to weaken the labor market could have serious implications for the housing sector, as dwindling savings and potential job losses create a looming threat of rising foreclosures, amplifying the fragility of the housing market. If the Fed "succeeds" in weakening the labor market, it will impact housing. With excess savings depleted, …