Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via naturalnews: For Wolf Richter, publisher of finance and econ site Wolf Street, the long-term treasury market is finally waking up from its delusion that the Fed is going to gradually cool inflation to its target of two percent. It is also finally admitting it cannot normalize interest rates after having spent 18 months believing in the …
by j_stars Acceleration in junk yields points materially higher. Yields spiking higher across the board are going to cause hedge funds and more regional banks to blow up. Not a recipe for general equities.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1708913178703229144 h/t Simian_Stacker
A total bloodbath in Treasury notes, bonds, and mortgage-back securities again: Here is a reminder that these instruments account for over 80% of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. If they were to be reevaluated using a mark-to-market methodology, the Fed's assets could be… pic.twitter.com/x0YNQez2iJ — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 25, 2023 That doesn’t change …
h/t InternationalTop2405
by InternationalTop2405 The more the denarius was diluted, the more coins were in circulation. The more the dollar is diluted, the more currency units are in circulation.
Investor housing purchases in Phoenix are falling FASTER than during the GFC pic.twitter.com/gNzd5VFrFQ — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) September 14, 2023 Down from $2 million to only $1 million, in a few months, here in Tampa lol pic.twitter.com/AJGhyzokom — Andrew Lokenauth | TheFinanceNewsletter.com (@FluentInFinance) September 14, 2023 California existing home sales have declined 47% from the …
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is embracing AI technologies to enhance “market surveillance” and assist in enforcement investigations. The Wall Street Journal reports that in a recent Senate hearing, SEC Chair Gary Gensler revealed that the agency is actively using AI to monitor financial markets and aid in various enforcement investigations. This marks a …
2/8 The amount of income you need to qualify for a mortgage has more than doubled. Logically, most of these people are left with one choice: stay in their current apartment or house, whether they like it or not. pic.twitter.com/UWrz0IxvWJ — Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) September 12, 2023 4/8 When people purchase these existing homes, maybe …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20230906.pdf This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before August 28, 2023. Highlights: “Some Districts highlighted reports suggesting consumers may have exhausted their savings and are relying more on borrowing to support spending.” “Bankers from different Districts had mixed experiences with growth …
Since the Fed's peak (so far) holdings of MBS hit $2.74T in April 2022, they've "run off" $242B, about 8%, over 16 months. In just TWO months in 2020 they monetized $500B. At that time, Case-Shiller home prices were up near 5% YOY, on their way to 22%. They owned $0 MBS in 2008 pic.twitter.com/vm3uyuDcq3 …
1970s inflation vs 2020s inflation: When you compare the inflation rates from 1972-1976, it’s almost identical to today. However, 2 years later we saw inflation spike to 11%. The peak inflation rate in the 1970s aligns perfectly with the 2022 peak. Are we about to see another… pic.twitter.com/SXwTUEdhh2 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 24, …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, The Fed has a line on you! And will likely keep raising rates as inflation stays elevated. This means higher mortgage rates unless China slips into a deflation doom loop. Thanks in part to The Fed, housing affordability is at the lowest level since the 1980s. And we are seeing tail volatility in the …
FED'S KASHKARI: WE NEED TO AVOID A 1970S-TYPE SCENARIO WHERE THE FED STOPPED RAISING RATES TOO SOON. Correct even if that means burning down the ponzi scheme — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 15, 2023 Jerome Powell trying to save the economy pic.twitter.com/EEWVkD2MqJ — Not Jerome Powell (@alifarhat79) August 15, 2023 BREAKING: Canada's inflation jumps to …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1691133559824699395 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1691142197314207744 Most recently, the Fed said they no longer expect a recession. JP Morgan agreed with them. Can the Fed really achieve a soft landing with 7%+ mortgages, $1 trillion in credit card debt and soaring bankruptcies? Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 15, …
These massive intra-day reversals we've been seeing lately are a result of institutions dumping Tech stocks en masse. A process known as "distribution" i.e. selling to retail late money. Here we see (Chaikin) money flow has collapsed. Note the difference from the last top: pic.twitter.com/IrPaM0TglA — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 This chart sums it …
The Fed's own forecast now says it's re-accelerating. It never came down except in energy, the other 2 categories food and core were up 5.7%. and 4.8%. Now that energy is rising again, the illusion of 3% inflation will disappear. pic.twitter.com/5zCSHlPSFX — Dan Davis (@DanDavi47038421) August 7, 2023
Perfect for who? Oh wait I know 👇 pic.twitter.com/pwSqCLIvL5 — Mr. D (@Dalernaz) August 1, 2023 Good Morning Everyone! Fitch just gave the U.S. a credit rating haircut – from AAA to AA+! They point to “expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years”. They also highlight the rising government deficit, which it anticipates “will …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2023 Wut mean?: In June, people earned $69.5 billion more, which is a 0.3% monthly rise–more money earned more money to spend, adding to inflation… Prices of things people bought (PCE price index) went up slightly by 0.2%. Even if we leave out the usually volatile food and energy prices (like the Fed does …
To implement a CBDC the Treasury & Fed must consolidate 4000 institutions into JPMorgan & big 5. The public will never support this without a crisis The Fed's BTFP + OCE interventions are the only thing preventing a regional banking crisis. They'll pull the rug & play the savior https://t.co/2RhyVZh9fE — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 27, …
For those who say "everything is fine," we saw the same spike in regional banks right before the 2008 crisis 🤫 BlackRock is setting up the rug pull when the Fed takes away emergency BTFP & OCE. https://t.co/YnlzAWEzfU pic.twitter.com/GSVJ4Y3QIE — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 26, 2023 Fed hiked .25% as expected. They left all options on …
It’s here. We either fight it or just give up all our freedoms. Step 2 is getting the digital readers for palm and face in place across the US and the World. Step 3 is to create and issue a digital ID via the banking system. Step 4 is to implement CBDC digital currency. Step …
CRE Dominos Fall: Starwood Defaults On $212.4 Million Atlanta Office Tower https://t.co/UsEj7FkpyP — zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 19, 2023 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1681383187375693824
by Simian_Stacker This time around the Fed has already blown its wad with 15 years of QE. The builders are starting to feel it. US: Housing Starts fall 8% in June, Building Permits fall 3.7% Housing Starts and Building Permits declined sharply in June. US Dollar Index stays in positive territory above 100.00. The monthly …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve, an organization that even George Orwell would find outrageous, is a Minsky Moment Machine! A Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky Moment crises generally occur because investors, engaging in excessively aggressive speculation, take …
USD has just closed its lowest weekly candle since April 2022 With the break of key support and a bearish MACD cross, downward momentum looks dominant pic.twitter.com/Y7OhawkHjX — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 18, 2023 2-year Treasury yield and USD have significantly diverged Signaling that the Fed has mattered less to the Dollar in 2023 pic.twitter.com/CFsDKmAvYv …
Glad to hear that inflation is cooling (now in semi-log!) pic.twitter.com/tweuJFCzop — Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) July 14, 2023
Total BTFP & OCE didn't drop this week. The Fed paused pulling liquidity from the banks Now that we know Bullard is leaving the Fed on Aug 14 that's the likely target week when the Fed plans to start dramatically reducing BTFP & OCE liquidity, causing the banking crisis in Sep🤫 https://t.co/lwuGir9xCj pic.twitter.com/om91NKrS9u — Financelot …
by Chris Black Even as demand for labor continues to increase with economic growth, the supply of labor in the U.S. is stagnate absent ever larger wage increases. The working age population of the U.S. plateaued a few years ago (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTUSM647S), so increases in labor supply have largely come from attracting those outside the work …
