Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The Jerome Powell era is ending with a whisper, not a bang. Today is almost certainly his final rate-setting meeting before Kevin Warsh takes the keys on May 15. The Fed is expected to hold steady at 3.50% because $111 oil and the “Middle East Pincushion” have made rate cuts impossible. The “Warsh Era” is …
BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind this reading doesn’t even include the Iran war yet… Moody’s built an AI model trained …
What is often overlooked is that the Fed primarily controls demand-side inflation, not supply-side inflation. In other words, it can influence how much people borrow and spend, but it cannot directly increase supply, like producing more oil. This means that in the case of a supply-shock, as we are seeing now with energy prices, the …
Americans in their late 30s and early 40s can now enlist in the U.S. Army after the service raised its maximum enlistment age to 42, according to updated Army regulations published this month. The change was formalized in a document released on March 20, which governs enlistment eligibility for the Regular Army, Army Reserve and …
US asset demand shows no sign of abating. Demand for bonds rises and bond yields decline.https://t.co/MKLFCKQfrf pic.twitter.com/Y7YdQtGapA — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) February 14, 2026 NY Fed's Q4 GDP forecast now at 2.71% – getting closer to ATL Fed's 3.68% pic.twitter.com/zUGsltCT9n — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) February 14, 2026 Average American's weekly paycheck buys ~2% more …
The Trump administration will draw down 700 law enforcement officers from Minnesota on Wednesday, border czar Tom Homan said. After that approximately 25% withdrawal, around 2,000 federal agents will remain in the state, he said. Homan announced the pullback after touting “unprecedented cooperation” between the federal government and state and local entities. The Trump administration …
Federal investigators are zeroing in on California after a staggering $70 billion goes missing, triggering panic inside Governor Gavin Newsom’s administration as serious fraud questions mount.
The economy for the bottom 80% has been in recession for 18 years. pic.twitter.com/vuclc5haGe — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) January 13, 2026 57% of Americans believe the economy to be undergoing a recession, per Gallup. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) January 14, 2026 Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin highlights AI-driven business investment and wealthy consumer spending as the …
by confoundedinterest17 A good Federal Reserve don’t. Print money, that is. The Federal Reserve prints a lot of money (M2). Unfortunately, it largely benefits elites (the top 1%). The bottom 50% get some benefits, but the gains in net worth largely benefits the elite class. This sounds like a legal Somali daycare scheme. Perhaps The Fed …
The Tim Walz comment about “war against the federal government” is beyond reckless. The Democrat Party must address its systemic hate of America & growing use of violence. https://t.co/DaJOI6kUTf — Matt Shaheen (@MattShaheen) January 8, 2026 BREAKING: Minnesota Governor, Tim Walz, authorizes state's National Guard to support local law enforcement in what he describes as …
How do fake stores pull six times the SNAP volume of a real supermarket without alarms? HOLY CRAP. Federal prosecutors just blew the lid off a $7 MILLION SNAP fraud scheme in Boston. Two Haitian nationals have been charged for running so-called “ghost stores” — tiny shops with barely any inventory that were somehow cashing …
The Trump administration will start garnishing the wages of student loan borrowers in default in early January, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Education confirmed to CNBC on Tuesday. It will be the first time a portion of borrowers’ paychecks has been at risk since the beginning of the Covid pandemic, when collection activity …
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she saw no need to change U.S. interest rates for months ahead after the central bank cut borrowing costs at its last three meetings, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is more worried about elevated inflation than the …
After 17 years of money printing, the Fed is boxed in. Cut rates and inflation returns. Hold tight and risk deflation. With debt soaring and spending still hot, Brandon Smith of alt-market.com describes the next phase of this crisis… By Brandon Smith In a system dominated by Keynesian economics, the word “deflation” is considered taboo …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1998841788585365948 Fed Chair Powell: Total PCE rises rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8%. These readings are higher than earlier in the year, as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects… pic.twitter.com/q8MPm5lCA6 — FactPost (@factpostnews) December 10, 2025 …
by Michael For decades, an insidious Big Brother control grid has been growing and evolving all around us, and now artificial intelligence is allowing authorities to do things that they have never been able to do before. Shockingly, that includes monitoring where we drive so that those with “suspicious” travel patterns can be detained. There …
“Here’s what’s going on with the Fed and Wall Street right now and it’s kinda wild when you understand the full picture (save this). The Fed created something called the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) back in 2021 as basically an emergency lending window for banks and dealers. Think of it like this, banks need cash …
by confoundedinterest17 Like tuna surprise (bleech!!), Fed Chair Powell announced a move towards reinvesting maturing MBS into ST Treasury bill decreasing the duration of The Fed’s balance sheet. Fed’s QT Surprise: Powell announced that maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) will be reinvested into short-term Treasury bills instead of longer-duration Treasuries, signaling a shift toward a shorter-duration balance sheet. 🧭 …
While everyone clocked out for Friday, On October 31st, another subprime lender, Bayside Credit is no longer originating loans. We updated our clients on the impacts today. Another “isolated” event, for sure. — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) November 2, 2025 In October 2025, the financial world was rocked as PrimaLend Capital Partners, a leading subprime auto lender, …
WARNING 🚨 BANKS BORROW $50 BILLION IN EMERGENCY LIQUIDITY FROM FED REPO WINDOW TODAY ‼️ 🚩 $20 BILLION THIS MORNING AND $30 BILLION MORE IN THE AFTERNOON ⚠️ CRISIS INCOMING 🚩 https://t.co/lLWvoC191y pic.twitter.com/ekoTvK6ewz — The Butcher of Wall Street Marcel Kalinovic (@BossBlunts1) October 31, 2025 🚨BREAKING: FED PUMPS $29.4 BILLION INTO MARKETS OVERNIGHT! The Fed …
December rate cut odds are ticking lower after Fed member warns of stagflation #MacroEdge pic.twitter.com/QHlkPIADLo — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2025 Fed’s Logan: WE FIND IT DIFFICULT TO CUT RATES AGAIN IN DECEMBER INFLATION IS TOO HIGH INFLATION TAKING TOO LONG TO RETURN TO THE 2% TARGET We are being primed for no rate cut …
Authored by Lau Vegys via InternationalMan.com, Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, recently gave the clearest signal yet that the Federal Reserve’s so-called “quantitative tightening” is about to end. Speaking at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia recently, Powell said: “Our long-stated plan is to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat …
The National Guard is building a “quick reaction force” (QRF) of some 23,500 troops trained in crowd control and civil disturbance that can be ready to deploy to U.S. cities by early next year, according to a leaked memo reported by multiple outlets Wednesday. The Oct. 8 memo, signed by National Guard Bureau Director of …
The Fed’s expansion of the money supply inflates asset prices and stock portfolios, while eroding the purchasing power and standard of living of the bottom 90%. The top 10% of wealthy Americans now control 60% of the nation’s wealth America’s looming hunger crisis divides nation: 40 million to lose SNAP food aid amid government shutdown …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, Only the wealthy will benefit from ZIRP, and the benefits of “the wealth effect” and “trickle down” have not just diminished–they’re now negative. Welcome to the era of ZAP. Correspondent Scott suggested I consider the possibility that the powers that be will respond to a weakening of the economy by pushing …
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings, but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are heading. Though balance sheet questions are in the weeds for monetary policy, they matter to financial markets. Powell generally stuck to …
🚨BREAKING — Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson issues an executive order prohibiting ICE from using any city-owned property. pic.twitter.com/6bqaIWGZns — Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) October 6, 2025 Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an executive order Monday blocking federal immigration agents from using city-owned property for immigration enforcement operations – just one day after we learned that the …
We’re f**ked. 👀👀 https://t.co/ISfWNlDKun — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) October 3, 2025 AI bubble now 17 times bigger than dot-com boom and four times larger than subprime crisis, analyst warns — MarketWatch — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) October 3, 2025 Nice bubble you've got there, Jerome Powell – would be a shame if anything were to happen it …
Something is breaking in Washington. James Comey could be facing an indictment any day, accused of lying to Congress about leaks from 2020. John Bolton had agents storm his office and take stacks of secret documents, some marked classified. These are not distant headlines. These are the men who ran the country’s intelligence being pulled …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The battle is over inflation vs jobs, two vastly different opinions. Fed governor Stephen Miran was a senior White House adviser until his confirmation to the central bank board on September 15. Miran replaced Adriana Kugler as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors when she unexpectedly …