The Jerome Powell era is ending with a whisper, not a bang.
Today is almost certainly his final rate-setting meeting before Kevin Warsh takes the keys on May 15. The Fed is expected to hold steady at 3.50% because $111 oil and the “Middle East Pincushion” have made rate cuts impossible. The “Warsh Era” is already being priced in as a return to hard-money hawkishness.
While the Fed holds, the “AI Civil War” is getting ugly in Oakland.
Elon Musk spent yesterday calling Sam Altman a “charity thief.” Today, Altman takes the stand to hit back. Expect him to produce the 2017 emails showing Musk wanted to own 50% of the company and fold it into Tesla. The tech market is shaking—OpenAI’s missed revenue targets are finally hitting Nvidia and ARM, proving that even the biggest rockets eventually run out of fuel.
But the real “Black Swan” this morning is the legal war on “coded language.”
James Comey was officially indicted in North Carolina just hours ago for a picture of seashells. The government is arguing that “86 47” is a direct call for the assassination of the 47th President. It sounds like a stretch, but in a “Level Red” security environment after Saturday’s attempt, the Feds aren’t taking chances with metaphors.
In NYC, the King is in town.
After a standing ovation in DC for his “checks and balances” speech, King Charles is at Ground Zero this morning. It’s a somber shift from the pomp of the White House State Dinner, but it’s the centerpiece of his “transatlantic endurance” tour. Manhattan is a parking lot as the Royal motorcade hits the 9/11 Memorial.
One Wednesday morning at the Fed’s marble table.. one in an Oakland witness box.. one at the NYC memorial.. one in the Minnesota raid zones.
The old world leaders are exiting, the digital giants are tearing each other apart, and the ground level is being raided by the FBI.
Watch the 2 PM Fed announcement—if Powell’s “exit interview” signals a pivot to Warsh’s hawkishness, the 10-year yield is going to 5%.