Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Two Pakistani men were arrested for terrorism and weapons of mass destruction charges after allegedly lighting a bomb under a Fox 13 vehicle in Salt Lake City on Friday as the station was covering the assassination of conservative icon Charlie Kirk. It is unclear at this point where the van was located when the bomb …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did something unusual last week: he told the truth about the Federal Reserve. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Bessent accused the Fed of conducting what he called a “gain-of-function” experiment in monetary policy. The analogy is deliberate and damning. Just as lab-made viruses can escape their confines and wreak havoc,… …
Truflation has been arguing that inflation is a non-problem and calling for the Fed to cut rates (below). But their latest readings are flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation. August 4th is labeled. It was 1.65%. Today it is 2.31%, a considerable increase of 0.66% in less than a month. And, as the …
Trump firing Fed’s Cook pic.twitter.com/BBEgdKZJJL — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) August 26, 2025 Well Trump fires Cook. Now he can replace her with another dovish cuck and he will have enough votes to get as many rate cuts as he wants. This is terrifying shit. https://t.co/rkBClz3rde — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 26, 2025 We’re running an almost …
by confoundedinterest17 The Trump economy continues to boom. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model shows real GDP growing at 2.5%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report …
The U.S. manufacturing recession is getting worse. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0 in July, its lowest since November 2024, marking the fifth month in a row of shrinking activity. “The manufacturing sector continues to struggle with declining demand,” the ISM report said. https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/july/ New orders have contracted for six months straight. The employment …
JP MORGAN PAID $290M TO EPSTEIN VICTIMS – FOR NOTHING? The bank settled a class-action suit accusing it of facilitating Epstein’s sex trafficking operation. Big number for a hoax, right? And if there were victims… there were abusers. You don’t settle for $290 million unless there’s something to settle. Victims were real. So were the …
The S&P 500 relative to the U.S. money supply looks incredibly similar to the 1999 blow-off top. pic.twitter.com/CpsVvr2TKa — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) June 30, 2025 Also notable: 4 week bill tanking, now almost 20 bps under RRP pic.twitter.com/qrZdz82dZU — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) June 30, 2025 The Fed is now providing Wall Street with liquidity through …
Stan Druckenmiller blasted Janet Yellen “I literally think if you go back to Alexander Hamilton, it was the biggest blunder in the history of the Treasury. I have no idea why she has not been called out on this. She has no right to still be in that job”pic.twitter.com/1yPivRbGjJ — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) June …
The National Weather Service (NWS) is on high-alert and both federal as well as state law enforcement agencies are investigating recent threats made against weather radar facilities operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The threats are said to have been made by a group calling themselves Veterans on Patrol, described as an …
🚨 JUST IN: Karoline Leavitt just announced the Trump administration will begin PROSECUTING state officials who violate federal law and allow men in women’s sports YES! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/sMNGm2AJx4 — Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) April 28, 2025
FED'S KASHKARI: I'M WORRIED THAT AMID UNCERTAINTIES BUSINESSES WILL DO LAYOFFS || SAYS NOT SEEING UPTICK IN LAYOFFS YET || SAYS SOME BUSINESSES SAY THEY ARE SCENARIO PLANNING FOR POTENTIAL LAYOFFS IF UNCERTAINTY LASTS — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April 24, 2025 FED'S KASHKARI: ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) April …
“DIDDY’S “FREAK OFF” TAPES MIGHT BE SHOWN IN COURT—YEP, IT’S THAT SERIOUS Diddy’s legal team is scrambling. They sent out a 70-question quiz to potential jurors asking stuff like: “Would you be okay watching explicit videos?” and “Do you judge people with multiple partners?” (Not awkward at all.) The prosecutors? They’re like, “This quiz is …
WOW! Alina Habba — US Attorney for the District of New Jersey — is opening an investigation into Governor Murphy & Attorney General Platkin for protecting violent illegal alien criminals & obstructing federal law. This is a big deal. 👏 pic.twitter.com/8zccUKEqgf — ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) April 11, 2025
Swaps — a historic move, Lehmanesque. The beast inside the market is about to break the Fed. A colossal policy reversal is coming. https://t.co/ewp0mUHB2k pic.twitter.com/r8psEJW3fL — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) April 9, 2025 Literally off the charts, no further comments necessary pic.twitter.com/As70Iob5rv — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) April 10, 2025 If the Yen breaks, liquidity breaks… …
The unclassified report from US spy agencies is only seven pages long. But it surely struck fear into the hearts of China’s Communist overlords when Tulsi Gabbard released it last month. It was supposed to. The report from Gabbard’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence is entitled “Wealth and Corrupt Activities of the Leadership …
The market no longer believes the Fed: Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED. In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023. Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/cNVD32IqbR pic.twitter.com/KWjK2LekQM — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 29, 2025
Why do Boomers own everything? By their 30’s Boomers owned 20% of national wealth. For Gen X it was 8.5%. For Millennials it’s not even 3%. The Federal government — and the Federal Reserve — broke the young. pic.twitter.com/hQuhhQyVy8 — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) March 28, 2025 The Federal Reserve still holds 2.2 TRILLION …
By Graham Summers, MBA | Chief Market Strategist The Fed SHOULD have cut rates last week. That is a fact. Instead, the Fed stated it is on “hold” for rate cuts because the potential tariffs the Trump administration introduces might trigger inflation. This is 100% nonsense. Europe, Japan, China, and countless other nations have introduced tariffs, duties and other …
BOSTIC: FAMILIES AND FIRMS ARE TELLING THE FED THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW WHERE THE ECONOMY IS HEADING PROJECTION OF INFLATION FOR THIS YEAR IS NOW PRETTY MUCH SIDEWAYS; NO RETURN TO TARGET UNTIL 2027 NO JUST SEE ONE CUT THIS YEAR, EXPECTING INFLATION TO BE VERY BUMPY — PiQ (@PiQSuite) March 24, 2025 BOSTIC: BUSINESSES …
The Atlanta Fed's 🇺🇸 Q1 GDPNow forecast just dropped to -2.8% down from -1.5% pic.twitter.com/aA87kp6f5w — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 3, 2025 The Atlanta Fed’s latest revision of the Q1 GDPNow forecast—dropping from -1.5% to -2.8%—is a serious red flag. It paints a picture of an economy struggling to keep its footing. The fact that the …
DOGE takes aim at the Mother of Slush Funds: The Federal Reserve. With Ron Paul to head the team. Americans would probably love to know who got the Fed's $7 trillion. pic.twitter.com/GI7TGl68nM — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) February 21, 2025 FBI DIRECTOR KASH PATEL: “The Federal Reserve is not a public government entity, it’s …
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further. “I would like to gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the …
The Fed’s sustained purchase of mortgage-backed securities post-crisis isn’t just an oversight; it’s a massive market distortion. For years, they created artificial demand that kept mortgage rates unnaturally low, making homeownership seem more accessible while inflating home prices. The truth is, we’ve been living in a housing bubble held together by Fed policy. The ramifications …
by Martin Armstrong Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Donald Trump face off once again. The two have notoriously butted heads over interest rates, as Trump has accused the Fed of stifling economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing. Speaking at Davos, the president said he would “demand that interest rates drop immediately.” We …
The Fed's balance sheet is now down 23.8% since its peak. pic.twitter.com/r8nxZ4AJHu — Augur Infinity (@AugurInfinity) January 17, 2025 $TLT call options volume was the 2nd highest in history on Wednesday 🚨 pic.twitter.com/2DcZ7eMUGf — Barchart (@Barchart) January 17, 2025 I highly recommend you watch @TruthGundlach full 1hr video from today. I've clipped it down to …
🔴 FED'S BOWMAN: INFLATION ELEVATED, AND I SEE UPSIDE RISKS, PROGRESS HAS STALLED. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 9, 2025 30-yr is 5% pic.twitter.com/wzz39uRgFR — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) January 10, 2025 Equities are going to need to learn to live with higher rates. They are here to stay. I really did enjoy all the posts …
Recession dont exist in a AI market, its a thing of the past. Economic textbooks are being rewritten. White-Collar Recession: A Warning Sign A white-collar recession often serves as a precursor to a broader market downturn. Similar trends were observed in 2000 and 2008, both of which were followed by recessions in 2001–2002 and 2009, …
