The Trump economy continues to boom. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model shows real GDP growing at 2.5%.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.76 percentage points to 0.82 percentage points.
Federal spending, elevated with the outbreak of Covid in 2020 remains higher than pre-Covid levels as does M2 Money printing.
And if you wonder why inflation is still going on, it is because the Federal government is still spending like crazy.
Another sign of economic health under Trump. The gap between 2-year and 30-year US yields has steepened to the widest in three years.
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