Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc I wish to politely disagree with this assertion. Yes, QT was happening, shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, and yes, the stock market advanced. But the Fed was engaged in QE all the while, just under a different format. While QE4 was still underway, the Fed began compiling over $1.5 trillion of Reverse …
It won’t come as any surprise to learn that millions of Americans are trying to put money away for retirement, with varying degrees of success. Unfortunately, the number of people behind is shockingly high, putting millions at risk of not enjoying their retirement years. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, more than 50% of Americans have …
by confoundedinterest17 Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. It is the House of the Dying Dollar. Under The Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the US Dollar has declined -97% since the establishment of The Federal Reserve in 1913. …
by confoundedinterest17 The Trump economy continues to boom. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast model shows real GDP growing at 2.5%. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 2.5 percent on August 7, unchanged from August 5 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report …
$2.5 trillion in silent dollar holdings could be dumped—and no one’s paying attention. Everyone’s watching central banks, but the real danger to the dollar lies elsewhere. A quiet sell-off from Asia could spark a rapid collapse in confidence, inflation, and your standard of living. This video breaks down how close we are to the edge—and …
President Donald Trump said Monday he “just called” Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to inform them about the cost savings they could recoup for their party-line megabill — thanks to the president’s sprawling tariff regime and his “most favored nation” drug pricing executive order. “You’re gonna have to, No. 1, score …
On April 24, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.5%. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/EHDZPwdxiP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 24, 2025 Feels like 2008 all over again, according to this price analogy. pic.twitter.com/28V5dOW5hL — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 24, 2025 2/ US government bonds have broken below a 40-year uptrend …
BREAKING: The Nasdaq officially turns negative, erasing a +2.5% gain 3 hours after the open. pic.twitter.com/uMSdXlKo5M — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Every rally is sold into. Investors have no confidence in anything right now so they use market strength to exit positions. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 14, 2025
“KIDS WISH NETWORK RAISED $127 MILLION, YET ONLY 2.5% HELPED ACTUAL KIDS Behind the feel-good branding, Kids Wish Network pulled in $127 million — and spent just 2.5% on actual children. One year alone: $18 million raised, only $240,000 reached kids. The rest? Gone to telemarketers, insiders, and overhead. The charity was blasted by watchdogs, …
The European Union has just made a major move in trade policy that could reshape the auto industry in the U.S. They’ve slashed the tax on American-made cars from 12.5% to a mere 2.5%, effectively matching the U.S. tariff on European-made vehicles. This is a game changer, especially for automakers like Honda, who will now …
With a debt-to-GDP ratio over 200%, rolling over that debt at higher rates is a financial death sentence. Worse, the Bank of Japan holds 70% of their bonds — meaning if the market crumbles, the central bank collapses too. Japan’s experiment of perpetual debt-funded growth is unraveling fast. Once confidence breaks, their economy could implode …
by External-Noise-4832 Reuters – The United States on Monday announced nearly $6 billion in additional military and budget assistance for Ukraine as President Joe Biden uses his final weeks in office to surge aid to Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes power. Biden announced $2.5 billion in additional security assistance for Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the …
According to a study published by AccountTECH, real estate brokerages face profitability challenges if agent commissions decrease. Here are the key findings: Commission Rates and Profitability: If the terms of the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) nationwide commission lawsuit settlement lead to typical agent commissions dropping to 2%, approximately 79% of brokerages would be unprofitable. Even a minor decrease in commission …
by confoundedinterest17 Paul Krugman and others are cheering the defeat of inflation (odd since it is on the rise again). But how does our Federal government “grow” the economy and inflation? Borrow and spend, baby! The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released Q4’s GDP update. The good news? US GDP grew by $334 billion. The …