Been saying this for several months now. The Fed didn't finish the job. They got spooked in late October (along with Treasury) about the rise in yields and term premiums and thus orchestrated a significant loosening of financial conditions to help the US govt finance its… t.co/5lMScZGtDD
— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) March 13, 2024
The Federal Reserve’s mishandling of monetary policy has been evident for months. Their failure to follow through with necessary actions has left the job incomplete. Instead of staying the course, they succumbed to panic in late October, along with Treasury, over rising yields and term premiums. This led to a reckless loosening of financial conditions, aimed at aiding the government’s unsustainable deficit spending. However, this move only exacerbated the problem by failing to sufficiently slow down the economy and rein in inflation, which now seems out of reach.
Now, the Fed finds itself trapped in a dilemma. Despite the ongoing slowdown in the labor market, it’s not happening fast enough to curb wage growth and core services inflation. The prospect of rate cuts only adds to concerns, with Fed’s Bostic noting the persistence of “pent-up exuberance,” particularly evident in the overheated housing market.
While the Fed claims a desire to ease policy, the solution lies in restoring uncertainty to the rates market. This volatility would tighten financial conditions, elevate term premiums, and inevitably impact asset markets, consequently tempering inflation expectations. However, their insistence on rate cuts amidst a stagflationary environment raises eyebrows. It suggests ulterior motives, possibly to artificially lower government borrowing costs, a deviation from their mandated objectives.
The latest indicators, such as the Atlanta Fed’s measure of sticky inflation, paint a grim picture. With inflation ticking upwards to around 5% on a 3-month annualized basis, it’s clear the Fed is steering in the wrong direction. Yet, remarkably, market expectations still anticipate significant rate cuts by January 2025, indicating a troubling disconnection between reality and perception.
The Welfare-Warfare State is Bankrupting the Nation!
Both parties are not willing to address the drowning debt. It is unsustainable!
Where are the real leaders? Where is the massive government spending reduction advocates?
Where are the TRUE conservatives?? pic.twitter.com/fC6Z1lUb7V
— Peter Spina ⚒ GoldSeek | SilverSeek (@goldseek) March 14, 2024