Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael Nobody was ready for a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for an indefinite period of time. The Iranians think that they will eventually get what they want by holding commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hostage and causing as much pain for the global economy as possible. The …
Everyone is still talking about oil pricesThat’s already outdated–This is no longer a price shock–It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock — Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) April 13, 2026 ~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.That flow is now constrained — by Iran AND USAnd it’s not just oil—it’s …
via notayesmanseconomics The war in the Middle East has been one which has brought benefits to some sectors of the US economy. The military industrial complex is one as they await orders to replace the munitions that have been used. Another in the news has been the energy sector. US crude exports are projected to …
by Michael Iran is still holding traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hostage, and the entire world is going to suffer. Before the war, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz flowed freely, and the global economy functioned normally. But even though there is a temporary ceasefire, Iran continues to maintain a stranglehold on the …
Australia's welfare bill could exceed the size of New Zealand's entire economy in just a few years https://t.co/bn8RUpbmhv — Daily Mail (@DailyMail) April 9, 2026 Australia is heading toward a welfare blowout so large that Commonwealth social spending could soon rival, or even surpass, the entire economy of New Zealand. Government figures show welfare spending …
by juvan If there are some world events where you really want to have a better guarantee of knowing where things are at you may consider looking at the various pay per collect services where regular people sign up and get paid $3-100 for each task which even operate in unstable regions of the world, …
JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may unfold over the world. The red lines are oil from the Persian Gulf. Asia: April 1. Europe: April 10. North America: April 15. Australia: April 20. This is a game to see who blinks first. JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may …
U.S. gasoline hits $4 per gallon, highest since 2022, as Iran war drives up fuel prices U.S. gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the oil supply shock triggered by the Middle East war rapidly drives up costs for families. Prices at the pump …
Analysis: A new oil shock is building. The next few weeks of war will be decisive for the economy. The clock is ticking on the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. The emerging view from oil industry executives and analysts is that the economic and market fallout from the war could escalate sharply if the Strait of …
MACRO DATA JUST DROPPED • Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs. Est. 51.3 • Services PMI 51.1 vs. Est. 51.5 • Composite PMI: 51.4 This should ease the recession fears that started creeping into the market last week and suggests the bear case may have gotten ahead of itself. S&P PMI: "The PMI data are indicative of …
New data reveals 40% of Americans cannot afford to pay their credit card balances each month. Americans now owe more credit card debt than at any point in history. pic.twitter.com/H51zAZd99f — FactPost (@factpostnews) March 18, 2026 A growing share of Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments, with new data showing nearly 40% …
Map of once functional Nuclear Power Stations across Germany 🇩🇪 pic.twitter.com/trkhGSQF0A — NS Stat-Mapper (@ns_statmapper) March 18, 2026
Over half of Americans say health care, a weeklong vacation and a new car are unaffordable, per ABC — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 17, 2026 JUST IN: US 30-Year Mortgage Rate jumps to 6.86%, the highest level since November byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Another out of context quote. Full quote shows Hassett saying this is “going ahead of …
Let me be very clear! An oil spike in a weakening economy is not inflationary – it is contractionary! The FED is extremely misguided if they are going to treat a Supply-Driven Oil-spike as an inflationary trigger. FED needs to LOWER rates to counter the effects of higher Oil… — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) March 17, …
Something strange is happening across the American economy right now. Not one single dramatic collapse. Not one headline catastrophe. Instead, pressure is building in several completely different corners of the system at the exact same time. Transportation. Consumer debt. Labor shortages. Monetary policy. Individually these developments might look manageable. But when you line them up …
by Martin Armstrong The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter. This sudden deceleration …
By Peter Reagan One of the biggest mistakes people make when trying to understand the economy is focusing only on the surface. Headlines tell us what happened today. But they rarely explain why. And often the deeper forces shaping the economy aren’t obvious at first glance. Sometimes you have to step back and look at several …
New economic data released today delivered a troubling combination for the Federal Reserve and the broader U.S. economy. The second estimate of Q4 GDP came in at just 0.7 percent, far below the 1.4 percent economists expected and marking the second weakest growth reading in the past 3.5 years. At the same time, inflation pressures …
by Michael Global financial markets are starting to shake, and it is because of what is happening in the Middle East. At this stage, every day is a rollercoaster ride for investors, and that is not likely to change any time soon. The Iranians have paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and trying to …
US and Iran have signaled no quick end to their war, with Trump saying it was necessary to finish the job and Iran warning that the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel after striking tankers in Iraqi waters and near the vital Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/npBrNdfWJw — Lucas Webber (@LucasADWebber) March …
This morning’s developments are worse than most people realize. Iran is not just sitting back after initial strikes. Its military has openly declared that any ship tied to the United States, Israel or their allies passing through the Strait of Hormuz could be targeted, a move that effectively turns what used to be the world’s …
Four headlines appeared today that, when placed together, raise a question that economists and politicians rarely want to confront. More Americans are having their electricity shut off as unpaid bills pile up. Analysts are asking what the S&P 500 may be hiding about the real condition of the economy. Some economists are openly wondering whether …
Even government reports can no longer help but show the economy was SNUFFED out over the course of 2025; yet, the overt lies from the White House continue to claim we are doing fantastic! by David Haggith Of course, the economy from hell is hot! It is burning up in a conflagration of inflation and now being …
“Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Kaabi explained. “If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.” …
🇰🇷 Korea: -7.24% — circuit breaker triggered 🇯🇵 Japan: -6% — worst panic in months 🇪🇬 Egypt: -5.44% — freefall 🇹🇷 Turkey: -5%+ — banks down -7.4% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: -4%+ — oil money can’t save them 🇩🇪 Germany: -4% — Europe cracking 🇮🇳 India: -3.37% — 2,743 points gone in hours 🇬🇧 UK: -2.6% …
Crypto Rover @cryptorover 🚨 BIG WARNING: US ECONOMY IS HEADING TOWARDS STAGFLATION Just now, US PPI and Core PPI data was released. US PPI came in at 2.9% vs. 2.6% expected. US Core PPI came in at 3.6%, its highest level in 11 months. This is a clear sign that US inflation is heating up …
🚨 BREAKING: These restaurant workers just INFURIATED the Left by saying how much President Trump's economy is working for them "I just filed my taxes, the money I got back went to my school tuition!" "The $25K tax credit has been a GAME CHANGER, most of our income is tips!"… pic.twitter.com/Z8DA22O6PQ — Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) …
The AI boom is fueling the South Korean economy: South Korea exports surged +47% YoY in the first 20 days of February, the strongest reading in at least 2 years byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
Now it’s Jamie Dimon’s turn, JP Morgan’s highly visible CEO is the latest to make the 2008 comparison. Following up last year’s cockroach quip this time saying a lot of people in the financial industry have done dumb things. But here’s the thing, markets all over the world are starting to price it. The worry …
