Moody’s recession model hits 49%, the last time it sat this high outside of an actual recession was September 2007. The Fed’s worst nightmare is getting worse. System looks stable until it doesn’t, 2008 veteran warns blind spots can hide the next crisis

BREAKING: A recession model that has predicted every single US downturn in 80 years just hit 49%. The threshold is 50%. Every time it has crossed that line, a recession followed within 12 months. No exceptions. And the data behind …

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JP Morgan analysis mapping Hormuz disruption timeline suggests Asia would feel pressure first in early April, followed by Europe, then the US and Australia. People are starting to realize how large of a crisis this oil, fertilizer & helium shock is to the global economy

JP Morgan analysts mapped out how the Hormuz closure may unfold over the world. The red lines are oil from the Persian Gulf. Asia: April 1. Europe: April 10. North America: April 15. Australia: April 20. This is a game …

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Iran tightens control over Strait of Hormuz, ship approvals now reportedly handled by IRGC. Asia’s energy crisis is intensifying. Philippines has 45 days of fuel left.

BREAKING: Iran has “tightened control” over the Strait of Hormuz and is now demanding detailed crew, cargo, and voyage information from ships seeking safe passage. Details include: 1. Approvals for ships seeking to pass through the Strait of Hormuz are …

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Fertilizer shock ripples into food prices, strait crisis starts hitting grocery bills. Your eggs look simple, but the costs behind them just jumped everywhere. Hormuz disruption threatens the income lifeline of over 100 million people.

The egg on your plate this morning was made from corn. Not literally. But the hen that laid it ate roughly two pounds of feed for every dozen eggs she produced. That feed was primarily corn and soybean meal. The …

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Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. Every time oil prices surged 50%+ above trend, a recession followed. Every. Single. Time. Recession talk builds. Fed won’t cut until something breaks.

Markets are reacting to a risk of a global LNG crisis, which is much worse than an oil shock. An oil shock is quickly solved by non-OPEC supply, alternatives, and flexible systems. LNG is only 15% of the total gas …

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2008 warning signs flashing again across markets: credit squeeze, shadow banks, oil shock, rising unemployment. The smell is back. Private equity is already in trouble. The crisis is coming in April.

The 2008 parallels aren’t subtle anymore. Let me lay them out: ✓ Credit bubble reversing ✓ Shadow banks gating investor redemptions ✓ Forced asset sales to raise cash ✓ Collateral getting marked down (JP Morgan just did this) ✓ Oil …

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A banking crisis is brewing…

Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the financial system actually is right now. And it started cracking TODAY. Step 1 → JPMorgan just marked down its private credit loans and RESTRICTED lending to private credit funds. Step 2 → Morgan …

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Price Controls Never Solve a Crisis

by Martin Armstrong Governments never seem to learn from history. Every time energy prices surge, politicians rush to impose price controls as if markets can be commanded to obey political decrees. South Korea has now joined that long list, announcing …

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