Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11% this quarter and another 26% next year. We better hope there’s no recession, because if there is, a sharp downgrade in earnings estimates could be a real drag on the market, in my view. pic.twitter.com/gDXHwh4KDC — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 28, 2025 Goldman Sachs is now projecting …
This is one of the most important charts I’ve seen in a long time. AI alone could drive electricity demand equivalent to adding another US economy in the next 5 years. Another point that’s probably flying under the radar: look at the gap between the US and China. If onshoring… pic.twitter.com/c83AhCBcW5 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa …
By Charles Kennedy Spot power prices crashed below zero in several Northern European countries this weekend. Negative power prices, while beneficial for some consumers in some countries, generally discourage investments in new capacity. Solar output in Europe is soaring and is set to boom this summer. A sunny weekend in northwest Europe plunged power prices …
LIBERALS SURGE AHEAD IN CANADA’S NEXT ELECTION Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading 42.2% to 38.5% over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, enough to lock in a projected 190 seats and a full majority. The Conservatives trail with 125 seats, while the Bloc, NDP, and Greens are barely hanging on — and the People’s Party gets nothing. Liberal …
M2 money supply is a key indicator of liquidity It represents the total amount of money in circulation Expanding M2 money supply = Increasing liquidity Contracting M2 money supply = Tightening liquidity — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 25, 2025 The NASDAQ Composite is up more than 1% for 4 straight days. In the past 30 …
S&P 500 could plunge 33% to 3,700 warns Wolfe Research 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/zBbOK715rN — Barchart (@Barchart) April 25, 2025 The S&P 500 could tumble as low as 3700 in a mild recession, according to Wolfe Research: “If uncertainty caused by tariff policy were to push the U.S. economy into recession in 2025, we’d expect $SPX EPS …
The pressure is not just building. It is bursting through the seams. More than 5,300,000 student borrowers are now in default. Another 4,000,000 are about to be hunted down when federal collections resume on May 5. These are not small figures. They represent lives unraveling under debt that was never meant to be repaid in …
RFK JR. DROPS AUTISM TRUTHBOMB – MEDIA MELTS DOWN HHS Secretary RFK Jr. said the quiet part out loud: autism rates are rising, and families of severely affected kids deserve answers – and compensation. He pointed to the 25% with severe, nonverbal autism who may never live independently, date, or write a poem – and …
This is spot on. They NEVER truly reached restrictive levels and hot money has been allowed to slosh endlessly around the system particularly since COVID. Now Powell will be summarily dismissed in order to install an even greater Dovish lackey. — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) April 21, 2025 Central banks are buying.China is buying.Insiders …
The next crisis won’t look anything like 2008. That’s what makes it so dangerous. Back in 2008, the signs were clear. There was an obvious housing crisis and a collapse in banking. This time, it’s much more insidious, creeping into different sectors in ways most people don’t notice. Right now, 4.3 million Americans have been …
Gold is barreling past $3,200 with forecasts of $4,500 on the horizon. But is it really tariffs driving the surge? Or something much bigger? From Basel III to global bullion shortages, we break down what’s really behind gold’s unstoppable climb… By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious …
🇨🇳🇺🇸 CHINA’S MIDNIGHT MOVE: DUMPING U.S. DEBT WHILE WALL STREET SLEEPS? While Americans were dreaming of rate cuts, China may have been busy sending U.S. bond yields through the roof. Treasury spikes overnight—while Beijing’s open and Wall Street’s out cold—hint that China’s… https://t.co/AsfxvRMGwD pic.twitter.com/WOSSRYrPwY — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 15, 2025
Gold just had a historic breakout The 50 year chart – adjusted for inflation – is in uncharted territory past the 1980 peak pic.twitter.com/nWSFhhPY5J — Katusa Research (@KatusaResearch) April 12, 2025 Gold have much more upside than most anticipate. From 2001 to 2011 within 10-year period gold price increased 8 fold from $235 to $1,915. …
Bulls keep agreeing that everyone is bearish so it's contrarian to be bullish. In what can only be described as the biggest circle jerk in market history. Here is the put/call ratio since the Liberation Day shock which occurred on April 2nd. Which was followed by the China shock… pic.twitter.com/ZsFJjjEf4a — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 13, …
The European Union (EU) and China are currently in discussions to address tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs). The talks aim to replace the EU’s existing tariffs, which can reach up to 45.3%, with a system of minimum price commitments for imported EVs BREAKING: 1) China and the European Union have begun negotiations to eliminate …
Yeah, this is definitely not over Yen and Franc absolutely *ripping* higher, along with gold CPI came in cool, and the curve is steepening notably Dollar down big time as ES/NQ and long end continues to sell off https://t.co/H6j1P6F07K pic.twitter.com/CrFR6276Tv — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) April 10, 2025 You've been warned [2] pic.twitter.com/JAFkZGIrRQ — Guilherme …
“A troubling mystery surrounds the Caribbean island of Antigua, where an unusual number of people have vanished without a trace, including nine in the past two years alone. Among them was 74-year-old Hyacinth Gage, who disappeared on her way to a hospital appointment six years ago, sparking an intensive yet fruitless island-wide search. The disappearances, …
The Border Crisis Is Over. “Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den!” “They should let us pass. We are calling out to Mexico and the U.S. and to Biden, the new U.S. president, to remind him of the presidential campaign promises he made, to make him aware we are here,” said one of them, Raul Pino Gonzalez …
The French political class just lit a fire it may not be able to contain. Marine Le Pen, leader of the populist National Rally, was convicted for misusing EU funds and handed a four-year prison sentence. Two years are suspended. On top of that, she’s barred from holding public office for five years. The court …
Market overvalued ✅Market overbought ✅Bearish price action confirmation ✅ pic.twitter.com/G9f275GkAt — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 1, 2025 Linkhttps://t.co/uFMsfLLbSj pic.twitter.com/0CnpwQeJ5J — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 1, 2025 ISM Prices Paid pic.twitter.com/q2t24pHB4d — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) April 1, 2025 Bond investors are worried: The 2-year breakeven inflation rate has jumped to 3.27%, the highest since the March …
And his position is so big, there’s not a chance he could exit it without ending up substantially down overall. Unlike these other highly liquid assets that have outperformed him by a wide margin. — Beanie (@beaniemaxi) March 31, 2025 Bitcoin Getting close to a major sell off. Little ore churn before it lets go. …
The United States is running on borrowed time—literally. The national debt now sits at a staggering $36.7 trillion, and every single day, another $8 billion is piled on. That’s not a typo. Eight billion dollars a day. This isn’t just bad bookkeeping; it’s a slow-motion catastrophe. Right now, the country is paying $2.4 trillion in …
Markets are hanging by a thread, and most don’t see it coming. High-yield corporate bond spreads just spiked 60 basis points in a month—hitting a six-month high. Investment-grade spreads aren’t far behind, climbing to their highest level since September. These are stress fractures in the system, warning signs that something is breaking. 🚨WARNING🚨 S&P500 2008 …
In Canada, bankruptcies, consumer proposals, and insolvencies are at a 5-year high. 📢 🇨🇦 Consumer Insolvencies Just Hit A 2009-Level Surge If this is a "strong" economy, what happens in a downturn? Why is this a massive warning sign for 🇨🇦 consumers & real estate. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/9T64MjMXLj — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) February 17, 2025 https://twitter.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1891536438933561782
The rally in $GOLD is unstoppable and has initiated the next surge, which may drive prices toward the $3,000 zone. The double bottom formation indicates positive momentum, which is likely to push prices higher. pic.twitter.com/2h3SWRHfYA — Gold Predictors (@GoldPredictors) January 22, 2025 With the new China banks’ #Gold accumulate product (Gold accounts at Chinese banks …
LA Rental Hits $40,000 a Month as Fires Roil Housing Market Tenants vulnerable to gouging as disaster hits tight market Vacancies were 5% before blazes burned 12,000 structures
China 30 year continues to drift lower, yield 1.854%. Deflation and the lost decade are real possibilities. With over capacity in manufacturing it’s only a matter of time before deflation reached the west. pic.twitter.com/GUzESzA0QB — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 8, 2025 🚨DEFLATIONARY IS COMING TO CHINA🚨 China's economy has seen deflation for 6 STRAIGHT …
This is the surge in Job openings people are talking about. pic.twitter.com/sqtaSDE666 — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) January 7, 2025 If we seasonally adjust the job openings, the applicants won't notice how bad it is. Or how many of them have been the same job position "open" for 5 years. pic.twitter.com/xFAFSl0RAx — Mr.Awsumb (@MrAwsumb) January 7, 2025 …
1/ Mortgage Meltdown Incoming? The share of 🇨🇦 mortgages in arrears (90+ days overdue) has jumped 50% since hitting historic lows. The latest rate of 0.21% might seem small, but here’s why it’s a ticking time bomb for the housing market. pic.twitter.com/ZPhxPWHTQF — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) January 4, 2025 3/ For context, the number of mortgages …
pic.twitter.com/BmgN8RzSM3 — Jack Krzewinski (@JackKrzewinski) January 2, 2025 "The relentless surge of the U.S. dollar is primed to cut a swath of carnage through Asia’s asset markets, leaving economic strain in its wake. The dollar wrecking ball similar wreaked havoc with Latam currencies in the 1980s… Historically, when the dollar flexes its muscle,… pic.twitter.com/y9Sc5afXM0 — …