The pressure is not just building. It is bursting through the seams.
More than 5,300,000 student borrowers are now in default. Another 4,000,000 are about to be hunted down when federal collections resume on May 5. These are not small figures. They represent lives unraveling under debt that was never meant to be repaid in a broken job market. This is not financial aid. It is financial imprisonment.
Credit scores across the nation have begun to slip. It’s the first decline since 2020, triggered by student loans reappearing on credit reports. Millions who were shielded for years are now exposed. FICO scores dropping signals that lenders are losing faith in borrowers. When credit tightens, collapse follows.
The auto loan world is flashing bright red. Exactly 6.56 percent of subprime borrowers are over 60 days late on payments. That is the worst level in 30 years. These are not just missed car notes. This is a sign that essentials are slipping out of reach for working Americans.
Credit card balances are rotting from the inside. 11.35 percent are now 90 days past due. That is the highest level since the end of 2011. The modern consumer economy runs on plastic. When the plastic starts to melt, it tells you something much bigger is burning.
In March alone, 275,240 jobs were eliminated. That is a 60 percent jump compared to February. It is also a 205 percent increase from March 2024. These are not layoffs. They are purges.
Housing is shifting fast. Inventory is rising sharply across the Sunbelt, a region that once promised wealth and warmth. Buyers are ghosting, and prices are softening. The countdown to October has already started. That is when pandemic mortgage aid vanishes. FHA delinquency rates are now hovering close to 15 percent. Homeowners are hanging on by a thread.
Commercial real estate is teetering. Nearly 900,000,000,000 dollars of debt is due for refinancing this year. With empty offices, evaporating leases, and skittish investors, few are lining up to rescue it. The towers are tall, but the confidence behind them is shrinking.
Then comes the sovereign beast. Between now and December 2026, nearly 60 percent of United States government debt must be reissued. That is more than 20,000,000,000,000 dollars. Markets are volatile. Investors are nervous. Interest rates are climbing. This is not refinancing. It is a financial hostage situation.
So what’s the solution being offered? Tariff relief. As if shaving a few points off imported goods will patch a sinking ship taking on water from ten different holes.
We just hit the trifecta: collapsing credit, soaring debt, and mass layoffs.
•5.3 M student borrowers in default + 4 M more delinquent when DOE resumes collections May 5th
FICO scores saw their first drop since 2020, driven by student loans re-entering credit reports.
6.56%…
— Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) April 23, 2025
Approximately 42.7 million people in the United States have federal student loan debt, which represents about 16% of U.S. adults. This debt collectively amounts to over $1.6 trillion.
This mean 27.47 million borrowers are behind on their payments LOL https://t.co/YCQ2mdlLqz
— Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 22, 2025
Everything we are seeing right now feeds the March-2020 reset analogy
A very sharp but swift downturn due to liberation day, a potential removal of many of these tariffs with "HUGE deals" incoming, which will lack substance but will bring back order to some extent
And the road…
— Andreas Steno Larsen (@AndreasSteno) April 23, 2025
Trucking volumes have collapsed to near pre-COVID levels.
Unfortunately, for truckers, the worst is yet to come. With imports deteriorating, volumes are expected to fall by another 3-4% over the next month. pic.twitter.com/TLJhxJTIok
— Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) April 22, 2025
Bear market confirmed pic.twitter.com/3rBRfZFJTg
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) April 22, 2025