Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 US home prices surged to the 17th consecutive all-time high. US home prices in the 20 largest cities rose 0.32% MoM in October (the latest data from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller), considerably hotter than the 0.22% rise expected. However, despite the MoM beat, the pace of annual acceleration has declined to its slowest since Sept …
Job cuts remain elevated to end the year at 71,894 – up year/year and highlighting firms desire to continue shedding jobs into 2025. Expect job cuts to surge in January as firms rightsize & continue outsourcing – especially in white collar areas. Final # avail 1/5.… pic.twitter.com/skKNRNj0gX — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) December 30, 2024 Las Vegas’ …
62 000 people are now involved in criminal gangs in Sweden. We have almost 60 no-go zones. There was 149 bombings last year. We have one of the highest rates of r*pes in the world. Socialist policies destroyed my Sweden 🇸🇪 — PeterSweden (@PeterSweden7) December 28, 2024
10 year bond yield surges up to 4.611% 💀 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 24, 2024 ⚠️US LEVERAGE LOAN DEFAULTS ARE SKYROCKETING⚠️ US firms are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest pace since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes as firms took MASSIVELY on debt during the low rates environment in 2020 and now are …
This chart is eye-opening: The S&P 500 has seen modest growth in corporate earnings compared to its notable price appreciation since 2023, the year where, among other things, ChatGPT was released. pic.twitter.com/N03i8gn7Bs — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) December 23, 2024 BREAKING: The US consumer confidence index fell to 104.7 points in December, marking one of …
The December Philly Fed Manufacturing survey was another disaster, collapsing from -5.5 to -16.4, versus an expected rise to +2.8. This is the weakest level of the year. More problematic, prices paid jumped while prices received fell. All signs point to #stagflation. Sorry, Fed. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 19, 2024 The markets still don't …
by confoundedinterest17 The Biden/Harris economy is a disaster. After last month’s catastrophic JOLTS report, which was a disaster across the board, and which was meant to give the Fed a green light to cut rates more after Biden won the election (which he didn’t, but the Fed still had to cut even if Trump is …
Left-leaning apps, news websites and social networks are experiencing a spike in engagement following President-elect Trump’s election win, further dividing the internet along political lines. Why it matters: It’s not unusual for resistance media to rise in response to contentious elections. But the internet itself is becoming more politically divided than ever, driving Americans further into echo chambers. Driving the …
Nvidia $NVDA only expects revenue of $37.5 billion next quarter. The growth is slowing. (*Reminder, all of these companies are using Non-GAAP instead of GAAP because it allows them to do round-trip financing 🤫) https://t.co/RTniBc6M8j pic.twitter.com/7cNDvdbNIx — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 20, 2024 Doesn't matter, as soon as growth evaporates the stock crashes because it's massively …
Bond yields surge despite Fed cuts, exposing weakening control over markets. The 10 year note yield is just causally up another +13 basis points today. That's +85 basis points since the Fed started CUTTING interest rates. And, no one seems to care. Why has this become normal? pic.twitter.com/zoV9TshYmG — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 12, …
BREAKING NEWS from the Canadian border: pic.twitter.com/AIybBoJheN — Stat Woman (@Stat_Woman) November 11, 2024 Kamala Harris supporters film themselves moving to Canada, following President Trump’s Election Win. pic.twitter.com/qymfT225Ac — Ian Jaeger (@IanJaeger29) November 10, 2024
10y inflation swaps jumped with the market Make inflation great and middle class poorer again pic.twitter.com/skURIoF9md — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) November 7, 2024 ALERT: Inflation-adjusted S&P 500 is very over-extended This also happened in: – 1913– 1929– 1965– 1999 Some of them were strong melt-ups But the market eventually fell With at least a 60% drop …
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy is trying to reassure investors who may be worried about the future payoff of the company’s massive investments in generative artificial intelligence. On a conference call with analysts following the company’s third-quarter earnings report on Thursday, Jassy pointed to the success of Amazon’s cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, which has become a crucial …
Job cuts accelerate in October with strikes, mass furloughs, layoffs, & small business closures at elevated levels. Over 109,000 cuts per our preliminary figure. Final figure available on Sunday, as always. #MacroEdge #DrivenbyData pic.twitter.com/9cPnR1qDr9 — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2024 *US BLS: OCT. TRANSPORT EQUIP. JOBS FALL 44K, REFLECTING STRIKE *US BLS:HURRICANES LIKELY AFFECTED OCT. …
Autism diagnoses in the U.S. are skyrocketing, particularly among young adults aged 26 to 34, with a striking 450% increase recorded between 2011 and 2022. Published in JAMA Network Open, the study reveals a broader trend in autism awareness and diagnoses, attributed to heightened advocacy, shifts in screening practices, and evolving definitions of the disorder. …
I work for an oil and fuel distributor and things have been slowing down rapidly with all industries we serve — Oliver Cromwell (@__Wait_for_it_) October 30, 2024 BREAKING: US layoffs jumped by 160,000 in September, to 1.83 million, the second-highest in 4 years. pic.twitter.com/V0BrIOnFzo — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 30, 2024 Sources U.S. Bureau …
Kamala Harris fans walked out of her star-studded rally early on Thursday night with just 11 days until the election and polls showing the tide turning to Donald Trump. The rivals in the presidential race campaigned in battleground states to make their final pleas to undecided voters in what is shaping up to be one …
Silver Prices Surge: Banks Face Billion-Dollar Losses TLDR: Silver prices surged over 6%, surpassing $33.6 per ounce. Five major U.S. banks face billions in potential losses from heavy short positions. Open interest in silver futures reached 141,580 contracts, nearly one year’s production. Short positions now estimated underwater by $1.3 billion. Critics argue short selling distorts …
Silver prices have skyrocketed by 41% this year, outperforming gold and signaling potential economic instability. With silver breaking $34 for the first time in over a decade, and gold nearing historic highs, what does this surge mean for the future? Is it a sign of deeper trouble on the horizon? In this video, we explore …
On October 21, 2024, multiple coastal cities across China, including Tangshan in Hebei, Panjin in Liaoning, and Xiamen in Fujian, experienced severe seawater surges caused by an astronomical tide. The rapid rise in sea levels resulted in extensive flooding, property damage, and forced emergency responses from local authorities. The channel lists such natural disasters as: …
Several Florida cities and counties are preparing to lockdown or establish curfews amid predictions Hurricane Milton’s impact could be worse than the devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina, with Milton hurtling through the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida’s west coast. Many appear to have already gotten out of town or holed up indoors, with video showing …
BREAKING: The storm surge for Hurricane Milton is expected to be 15 feet. To give you an idea of how deadly this is, here's what 9 feet looks like:pic.twitter.com/0SxfrA9XK3 https://t.co/56ZLtpOIbi — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 8, 2024 There are areas of traffic jams but overall it doesn't look too bad. Hopefully there's enough time for this …
Hurricane Milton poses a serious threat to Florida’s Gulf Coast, including Tampa. Forecasts suggest rapid intensification, potentially reaching Category 3 strength. This would bring life-threatening storm surges, extreme winds, and severe impacts to property and life. Residents should be prepared for evacuations and take necessary precautions. #Tampa listen up. If the forecast holds, #Milton would …
by confoundedinterest17 It turns out that Powell’s “emergency” 50bps rate cut was – drumroll – another major policy mistake by the Fed. Or it is Presidential election interference by The Biden/Harris Administration giving Cacklin’ Kamala as talking point? Moments ago, the BLS reported that at a time when prevailing consensus was for jobs to continue their recent downward slide …
“Is the market volatility set to surge in the coming months? Over the last 30 years, US yield curves have been a leading indicator for the volatility index, $VIX, with roughly a 36-month lag. The periods of flattening and inverted yield curves have been associated with suppressed volatility. On the other hand, once yield curves …
“The group with the fastest spike in unemployment appears to be 25 to 34-year-olds with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Their unemployment rate has nearly doubled in the last 4 months, from 2.1% to 4.0%. This is the biggest non-Covid surge since tabulations began in 2000.” The group with the fastest spike in unemployment appears …
California’s film and TV industry is facing a major crisis in 2024, with production levels plummeting. Series production dropped by 30% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2022, and on-location filming for reality TV in Los Angeles fell by nearly 57% in the second quarter. The industry, already hit hard by the pandemic …
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER Rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches, with localized amounts over 12 inches, are expected. UPDATE: Hurricane Helene to roar ashore in Florida as Cat 3… Developing… People in the Florida Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for …
Something remarkable happened to the price of gold back in early 2022 around the time of the Ukraine war: having previously tracked gold ETF inflows to the tick, the price of gold suddenly disconnected and exploded higher even as “paper gold” as some call it, slumped. We showed this for the first time back in April with …
Voter registration is breaking records as Election Day approaches, particularly among young people, many of whom are first-time voters. On Tuesday’s National Voter Registration Day more than 150,000 people registered through Vote.org, the most the organization has ever seen on that day. The organization registered 279,400 voters in all of last year. Last week, 337,826 …