1/ Mortgage Meltdown Incoming?
The share of 🇨🇦 mortgages in arrears (90+ days overdue) has jumped 50% since hitting historic lows.
The latest rate of 0.21% might seem small, but here’s why it’s a ticking time bomb for the housing market. pic.twitter.com/ZPhxPWHTQF
— Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) January 4, 2025
3/ For context, the number of mortgages that are 90+ days delinquent (10,826) is about 1/4 of the homes sold in October (44,000).
Banks may downplay it, but for 🇨🇦 fragile housing market, this is a warning sign that can’t be ignored.
— Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) January 4, 2025
5/ State Intervention Isn’t Enough
Even with unprecedented government relief measures, arrears are climbing.
Billions in taxpayer dollars have been pumped into the system to prevent this very outcome—and yet here we are.
— Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) January 4, 2025
7/ Private Lenders, the Hidden Risk
The data excludes private lenders, who dominate investor-heavy markets.
These unreported mortgages likely hide even worse delinquency rates.
What happens when that house of cards falls?
— Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) January 4, 2025
Rents now falling for 2 months in a row in Canada: pic.twitter.com/IF21VZHYqq
— Daniel Foch (@danielfoch) January 4, 2025
one note: Property-days-on-market used by Housesigma is higher than what realtors quote because their algorithm
weeds out the realtor scams of delisting and reslisting to 'reset' the number.
— Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) January 4, 2025
The Bank of Canada right now… pic.twitter.com/XDsC3TlWG0
— Mortimer (@mortimer_1) January 4, 2025
Canadian Mortgage Arrears are up 23.5% YoY from Oct. 2023 to Oct. 2024 (the most recent month reported).
Expect these to continue to increase throughout 2025. pic.twitter.com/GnW8LEYDkm— Jon Flynn (@JonFlynnREstats) January 4, 2025
Housing collapse in Canada is the only way to break the cycle and rebuild