Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Wall Street is gearing up for a massive surge in Treasury bill issuance in the third quarter, that is more than half a trillion dollars. That means the government is borrowing heavily to cover spending, which puts pressure on interest rates and could crowd out private investment. “Net issuance of Treasury bills in the third …
It’s getting really out of control. A new form of techno-spirituality is spreading like wildfire across the internet. Thousands of people are claiming that ChatGPT is sentient and that the AI is a type of all knowing God, or that it has been sent from the future or an alien civilization to save us. Is …
Kansas City is staring down a failed experiment. Nearly a decade ago, the city spent $17 million to buy and renovate the Linwood Shopping Center on Prospect Avenue. The anchor tenant, Sun Fresh Market, opened in 2018 with fresh produce, seafood, and a full-service deli. It was supposed to end the food desert. It’s now …
Retail trading volume explodes to $6.6T shattering previous highs. Retail is going all-in on this market: Individual investors bought $155.3 BILLION of single stocks and ETFs in the first half of 2025, the largest semi-annual net inflows on record, according to Vanda Research. This exceeds the previous high of $152.8 billion hit in the first… …
The dollar just found its floor and the setup heading into late July is cleaner than it has been all year. Let’s get into why this moment matters. Start with tariffs. April 7 marked the peak of U.S. trade pressure. That shockwave hit every dollar pair hard, and by mid-April, the market had fully absorbed …
Centene just pulled its 2025 earnings forecast. The numbers didn’t slip, they cratered. The company warned of a $2.75 per share hit, wiping out $1.8 billion in adjusted earnings. That’s not a guidance tweak. That’s a full retreat. The trigger came from updated morbidity data across 22 states, covering 72% of Centene’s ACA marketplace footprint. …
I hate to pop your narrative bubble…not really…but, interest rates are not the cause or fix of inflation. See below. The US had 7-years of a 0% federal funds rate. No inflation. Then, we had 2-years of 0% and got inflation. It’s not rates, it the M2 money supply. pic.twitter.com/0gzeMoHEdR — Brian Wesbury (@wesbury) June …
Boomers make up 20% of the US Population They own 40% of all the houses They are dying at the fastest pace on record — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 24, 2025 check this pic.twitter.com/ubWtmGj5Y9 — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 24, 2025 Boomers be like, here's this $500,000 house for the low price of $1.4m pic.twitter.com/B9FrAnEDjV …
Gold’s price is climbing, but not because of Iran, oil, or headlines. This run is about fundamentals, not fear. Meanwhile, silver’s move to $36 is just the beginning. Could $100 be the new floor? Here’s what the data – and history – say about today’s prices… By Peter Reagan Your News to Know rounds up …
Told ya they are freaking out… “Simply connecting all the dots now, everything points toward UBS as potentially the cause of the recent sharp increase in silver prices. This pressure on the bank joins the one the lender inherited from the reckless merger with Credit Suisse the… https://t.co/ZXbJddMmzN pic.twitter.com/jtc6SDuGQ4 — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) June 19, …
Picture 2008 again. The fear on screens. The system breaking. Now pause. The difference today is quieter and darker. The collapse arrives in data points, not alarms. Start with labor. The working‑age population between 25 and 54 is now shrinking in absolute terms. That means fewer workers, fewer new households, fewer buyers. Without a growing …
People are staying unemployed longer and businesses are pulling back. Fed complacency with this? It’s recklessly ignoring a labor market that’s quietly unraveling. First, how can the unemployed population (i.e. continuing claims) rise without a corresponding rise in initial jobless claims? This is a symptom of a cooling labor market, where people struggle to secure …
During the GFC, we saw a noticeable crossover when part-time work increased and full-time work declined. Over the past year, we’re seeing a similar crossover slowly form. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/uez8lZaGWP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 10, 2025 Full-time workers -623KPart-time workers +33K — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 6, 2025 2/ The leading economic indicators (LEI) index …
The gold-to-silver ratio is now breaking down as silver accelerates and begins to catch up with gold. Just a month ago, investors were telling me this time was different — that the ratio wouldn’t revert and we were witnessing a structural shift. But notice the trend.… pic.twitter.com/r4JE7gAoPt — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 9, 2025
📈 Gold’s 2025 Surge: Defying the Commodity Downturn byu/EconomySoltani inInfographics Divergence Began in November 2023 By May 2025, gold prices had surged 25.0% year-to-date, in sharp contrast to the broader commodity market slump. The overall commodity index fell 9.0%, with energy prices down 12.9% and food prices down 5.9%. Gold’s value stood 153% above its …
Been saying silver and silver miners looked bullish.And now, SILVER & SILVER MINERS ARE MOVING. Posted on four days ago (on the 2nd) that silver looked ready to break to upside above gray price range.And, it did just that just hours later. Then posted in linked post below… https://t.co/OKZcu2rEMq pic.twitter.com/pDP857z0Yw — Graddhy – Commodities TA+Cycles …
In the quiet hum of everyday life, a storm brews unnoticed. The United States stands at the precipice of a financial upheaval, with trillions in corporate and consumer loans maturing by 2026. These debts, once manageable under low-interest rates, now face refinancing at significantly higher costs. We are less than 6 months away from the …
🚨🇨🇦 This is crazy – Canada took in 817,000 people into the Country in just 4 months. Canadas total population is 40M. Now Canadians can’t get jobs, buy or rent property & access to services is in rapid decline. This is the queue for one of their job centres. Politicians have… pic.twitter.com/bg6ckQsSNS — Concerned Citizen …
What The Headline GDP Number Doesn’t Show byu/stockpreacher instockpreacher BREAKING: US goods imports fall -19.8% in April as President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" effectively halted trade with many countries. This marks the largest drop in history for US goods imports. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, 2025 “There was always concern that it would be …
With the equity market surge yesterday, market based pricing of growth expectations has nearly fully recovered the drop this year, and is just a couple point off highs. pic.twitter.com/UeaOxWYTDC — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, 2025 Long dated real yields are at their highs of the post-covid cycle. pic.twitter.com/4D4xVU4WhS — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 28, …
A new COVID strain from China, NB.1.8.1, is spreading in the U.S., including NYC, per the CDC. First detected in late March among international travelers, the variant has already caused surging hospitalizations across Asia. China saw ER visits for COVID double in a month, with… pic.twitter.com/QgrMeHuThU — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) May 27, 2025 🇨🇳🇺🇸NEW …
CHINA EASES RARE EARTH EXPORT CURBS — Per Digitimes, Beijing has quietly loosened restrictions on key rare earths like neodymium and terbium, helping drone makers resume shipments. — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) May 26, 2025 Xi’s government is weighing a new version of “Made in China 2025” focused on boosting tech manufacturing like chip equipment. …
🚨BREAKING: 🇨🇦 Big Six banks are hoarding loan-loss reserves and watching lending grind to a halt under the chokehold of Trump’s trade war. pic.twitter.com/bD2RsiVgeA — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) May 21, 2025 Canada’s Big Six banks are tightening their grip on loan-loss reserves, bracing for economic uncertainty as Trump’s trade policies send shockwaves through financial markets. The …
“This will add $20,000,000,000,000 to the debt over the next 10 years.” – Republican Thomas Massie Massie is the only one being honest. And Rand Paul. pic.twitter.com/MFcgC6F5nc — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 21, 2025 The House is set to vote tonight on a sweeping tax bill that could reshape the financial landscape for millions of …
The latest housing market data reveals a troubling trend. Foreclosures are rising again, marking a shift from the unusually low levels seen during the pandemic years. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Household Debt and Credit Report confirms that distress is creeping back into the market, with 61,660 foreclosures recorded in the first quarter …
via notayesmanseconomics: This morning the economic news has been made in the east in Nihon. Japan’s economy shrank for the first time in four quarters in the January-to-March period. Private consumption was virtually unchanged for the first three months of the year. The Cabinet Office released preliminary gross domestic product figures for the first three …
🚨USA Cancer Treatment Expenditures Adjusted for Med Svc Inflation/Pricing (Constant $) Up 22.5% over old trend$41.4 billion in new cancer treatment costs per year Inflection date = June 2022Old Trend = 0.22% CAGR (real growth)Novel Trend = 2.6% CAGR (real growth) pic.twitter.com/xWzBW8uZ1n — Ethical Skeptic ☀ (@EthicalSkeptic) May 15, 2025 By age group (Panels 1 …
