Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The real story here is not “recession fears.” The real story is that institutions, markets, and even consumers are starting to quietly admit something much darker: The modern economy increasingly survives through financial insulation, debt tolerance, asset inflation, and delayed recognition of losses rather than broad based prosperity. That is the connective tissue running through …
Trump's givin Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz… the equities market is giving Trump 24 hours to taco. pic.twitter.com/AUIgO1jn4K — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 23, 2026 Nikkei nearing a big support level as well pic.twitter.com/uP1v95Olqt — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) March 23, 2026 South Korea halts trading for 5 minutes after …
Something unusual is happening in the oil market. Crude prices do not normally move this aggressively unless investors believe a major global disruption is coming. Look at the historical pattern. During the Global Financial Crisis, oil surged from roughly $57 to $140 before the economy collapsed. During the COVID-19 pandemic, crude rebounded from about $1 …
Let me spell this out for everyone: The fact that China wants the world to use the Yuan as the reserve currency, and not the US Dollar, is de facto signaling that it will be backing the Yuan with Physical Gold. China's (and Russia's) position is that the US Dollar is backed… https://t.co/SqvvHfLsyj — Vinny …
Will rising PPI force the Fed into sudden rate hikes? So far, the best-performing assets of the Trump presidency are gold and silver. Do you think that’s a good sign? — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) January 13, 2026 The Nov. PPI, a leading indicator of CPI, rose more than expected. YoY prices jumped by 3%, versus …
They keep telling people everything is fine while quietly shoving emergency cash into the system like it is a house fire at 3 a.m. When banks start dumping mortgage paper just to get overnight money, that is not confidence, that is panic dressed up as plumbing. The scary part is not the headlines you see, …
When JPMorgan starts pumping the market, it often means they’re preparing to unwind positions in key tickers — possibly NVDA, ORCL, and others. The impact usually shows up the following week. https://t.co/hJjkcNTnL0 — optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 26, 2025 Investor fear levels are rising: The cost of a 5-year put option protecting against at least a …
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-banks-tap-fed-repo-facility-overnight-rates-climb-signaling-funding-strain-2025-10-15/ US repo rates hit high of 4.36% on Wednesday Liquidity is declining, should be monitored, analyst says US Treasury settlements are one factor for funding rate rise NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) – U.S. banks borrowed $6.5 billion from the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday, central bank data showed, and repurchase …
by Mike Maharrey After unexpectedly surging in July, consumer debt returned to its previous trend and flatlined again in August, signaling growing financial stress on American households. The growth of revolving debt, primarily reflecting credit card debt, has been slowing all year. It contracted in May and June, after a one-off surge in April, before …
“Achieving these results required additional incentives, resulting in a reduced average sales price of $383,000, and our gross margin drifted down to 17.5%, while our SG&A expenses came in at 8.2%, reflecting the soft market conditions.” Source: https://newsroom.lennar.com/2025-09-18-Lennar-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results “The average sales price for new homes dropped to $389,000, an 8.7% decline year-over-year, and a striking …
Gold needed a timeout and it’s still sulking. With gold at $3500, we warned that gold was stretched from its moving averages and needed to fall and correct. So far it fell $380 and 4 months have passed with no new highs for spot gold. Todays chart still shows weakness and potential to fall further, …
via Mike Maharrey For the second straight month, consumer borrowing was weak, indicating Americans might be close to their credit limits. Over the last several months, credit card spending has dropped, signaling that Americans may be running out of borrowing power. This is bad news for an economy that depends on consumers buying stuff to …
What’s going on here is likely a sign of rising global stress. The sharp drop in the 10 year Treasury yield alongside a spike in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) points to a flight to safety and a scramble for dollar liquidity. Normally, falling yields would weaken the dollar but when both move in opposite …
BREAKING 🚨: Bonds The market value of Treasury Bonds as a % of the market value of Stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the 1960s pic.twitter.com/5MM4RYIo7B — Barchart (@Barchart) June 9, 2025 ⁉️Does central bank liquidity matter for US stocks? Global central banks total assets on their balance sheets have declined over the …
Leading indicators suggest inflation is set to rebound: The index of prices paid by New York manufacturers jumped to 51 points in April, the highest since August 2022. At the same time, the Philadelphia manufacturing prices paid index rose to 51 points, the highest since July 2022. All while the Dallas and Kansas manufacturing prices …
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
Gold just had a historic breakout The 50 year chart – adjusted for inflation – is in uncharted territory past the 1980 peak pic.twitter.com/nWSFhhPY5J — Katusa Research (@KatusaResearch) April 12, 2025 Gold have much more upside than most anticipate. From 2001 to 2011 within 10-year period gold price increased 8 fold from $235 to $1,915. …
A lot of talk about inflation driving gold higher, but the copper / gold ratio which is a proxy for global growth, is signaling deflationary depression. pic.twitter.com/u2hpZvZ1of — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 11, 2025 People still have no idea the decoupling is happening. Ships are no longer sending goods from China to US or US to …
2/ The US stock market is in full panic mode In our last YouTube video, we said there was still plenty of short-term downside risk Which is why we removed most of our exposure to US stocks during the recent bounce pic.twitter.com/xtKKEFKVuU — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 7, 2025 4/ This isn’t doom and gloom, …
Copper is hitting record levels again, just like gold. While some investors argue these metals behave differently, the reality is they are strongly interconnected in the long term. In my view, we are likely in a profoundly constructive macro environment for metals. Silver,… pic.twitter.com/lwD0j1rBFQ — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) March 26, 2025 It is fascinating to me that …
Bond experts sense slowing momentum, and it’s hard to ignore the warning signs. Something’s shifting beneath the surface. Why are yields falling when the Fed is going to pause on Wednesday at FOMC? What’s the bond market seeing that we aren’t? A recession? 💀 https://t.co/UR5ugAL8IA — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 28, 2025 Those are the …
These are the highest I’ve EVER seen them in years… The MMRI is currently at 318.5: https://traderschoice.net/about-traders-choice/ The Modified MMRI is now at 411: https://www.mannarino-market-risk-indicator.com/MMMRI/ These indicators have reliably predicted bank failures over the past few years, so expect more shit to break economically soon followed by another huge inflation increase after the US government …
Remember how I warned you all that after the election, we'd suddenly start getting "surprise" and "unexpected" downward revisions on all of the allegedly glowing economic numbers? 😎 Now watch corporate earnings and forward estimates revise down. — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 30, 2024 PAY ATTENTION. Warning signs are EVERYWHERE. https://t.co/BiwXM5MWdj — Uncle Milty’s …
#GOLD has confirmed a bullish breakout from an inverse head & shoulders pattern, followed by a successful retest of the neckline near $2,550. Current consolidation signals a build of potential energy for the next move. pic.twitter.com/F511TAvvYP — Gold Predictors (@GoldPredictors) December 30, 2024 #Gold monthly chart highlights the significance of 2024 highs at $2,790. The …
Update on T-bills. Last week’s wild auctions repeated this week, only with flipped maturities. Other related data confirm the sharp demand as well as dealer participation in it. We discuss the implications plus dig into the reason why collateral is so important to begin with, and also why we don’t know nearly enough about what’s …
The inverted cup and handle is considered a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis. Here’s an explanation: Structure: The “inverted cup” resembles an upside-down “U” shape, indicating a prior upward trend that has peaked and begun to decline. The “handle” forms as a temporary consolidation or slight upward retracement after the downward movement of the …
Key Points: Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator plunges to -23.3, signaling deepening recession fears in late Q4 2024. Income expectations hit a new low since February 2024, falling 17.2 points to -3.5 due to rising unemployment. Private consumption risks intensify as it accounts for over half of Germany’s GDP, threatening economic growth. https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/german-consumer-confidence-tumbles-recession-fears-mount-eur-usd-dips-1479213
THE EURO SWAP CASH BASIS HAS JUST WENT NEGATIVE FOR THE VERY FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 WHENEVER THIS GOES NEGATIVE IT MEANS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING LIQUIDITY ISSUES, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OVERALL MAJOR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS THIS BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO POP… This is incredible – simultaneously… pic.twitter.com/B3APANZ7fm — fuzzyfacts (@CostcoPM) November 10, 2024 Dow Jones …
Lost in the payroll mess, the ISM (manu) dropped to fifteen-month low not far off it. Worst part of it is how employment has dropped off during the summer, more evidence aligning with payrolls, hiring, layoffs, nominal incomes, etc. Firms have been cutting back production, trimming hours, reducing headcounts, and backlogs are still declining at …
#recession … #Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition https://t.co/33Ts5hbVHb pic.twitter.com/pc9KFHqddF — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 31, 2024 It's end of month and we should be seeing more cash piling up on the sidelines (sometimes referred to as window dressing) but instead RRPs have plunged this week, down $50 billion to just $201 – why is no …