Trump’s givin Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz… the equities market is giving Trump 24 hours to taco. Oil was signaling imminent global deflation. So this is an inflationary headfake that guarantees Fed policy error.

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This all comes down to which side can endure the most pain. Iranians have been sanctioned for 46 years, so they can endure extreme economic pain.

Our society of comfort seeking couch potatoes have ZERO tolerance for economic pain. Therefore it is a miscalculation of BIBLICAL magnitude to believe that the U.S. can go toe to toe with Iran on escalation. Imagine what happens when gasoline is $10/gallon. The economy effectively shuts down.

But markets will be a smoking crater long before gas hits that level.

What people seem to forget is that before the war started, oil was diverging massively from the AI commodities: copper, silver, platinum etc.

Oil was signaling imminent global deflation. So this is an inflationary headfake that guarantees Fed policy error.

AI : Apex of Idiocy