Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
“Credit card debt is exploding way beyond 2008 and 2020 levels. If history’s taught us anything, it’s that this kind of spike usually screams incoming economic crash. Time will tell.” Credit card debt is exploding way beyond 2008 and 2020 levels. If history’s taught us anything, it’s that this kind of spike usually screams incoming …
Tennessee has recently experienced its largest drop in hotel tax revenue since the COVID-19 pandemic. This decline raises concerns for Airbnb and the short-term rental market, potentially signaling decreased demand. Economic factors, shifting travel trends, and competition from traditional hotels may be contributing to the reduced revenue, hinting at challenges for the state’s tourism and …
“Is the market volatility set to surge in the coming months? Over the last 30 years, US yield curves have been a leading indicator for the volatility index, $VIX, with roughly a 36-month lag. The periods of flattening and inverted yield curves have been associated with suppressed volatility. On the other hand, once yield curves …
“Silver is making another strong move, decisively breaking out of a 13-year resistance level. A compelling approach to identifying the beginning of a new secular trend in commodities is to examine the rotational dynamics of price behavior among various resources. Instead of witnessing uniformly depressed prices across the board, we often observe significant surges in …
The obesity rate in the United States was indeed higher in 2022 compared to 2023. In 2022, 22 states had an adult obesity prevalence at or above 35%, whereas in 2023, this number decreased to 23 states. This slight reduction suggests some progress, but the overall obesity rate remains high. NEW: we may have passed …
🚨OIL PRICES CONTINUE TRENDING LOWER AS DEMAND WEAKENS🚨 WTI crude oil is trading below $70 a barrel and is down 7% this month. Since the April peak oil has fallen 28% despite the Middle East tensions. Global supply remains ample while demand drops rapidly weighing on prices. pic.twitter.com/jqRGnligCA — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September 30, …
Every 4 years, the VIX spikes about 2-3 weeks before the election! It has never failed in the last 3 elections!I buy a volatility Proshares Etf usually within that range, and sell it either on the Friday before or next Monday! Beware of a false start now… — Bridge Founders (@PBridgeFounders) September 26, 2024 Pice …
This is absolutely mind-boggling! The U.S. government has normalized running a $2 trillion deficit. They better hope there's never an economic downturn, or things could get catastrophic… Oh wait… pic.twitter.com/xZjW4JZkKm — The Cytadel (@thecytadel) September 12, 2024 Gold rising with rising US real rates conveys a simple message that has surprised many US investors but …
2/ Oct 2007: Gold made a new ATH aftr 1.5 years Soon after, the unemployment rate began rising rapidly And economic growth slowed down This ended in the 2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/Wybfid9wfx — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2024 4/ Today, Gold has once again made a new ATH And Silver has also been moving …
U.S. Construction Spending MOM SAAR pic.twitter.com/4yP9esLhtu — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 4, 2024 Construction spending decreasing does NOT bode well for jobs in that sector. Construction is not a small piece of the economy either, and spending in other sectors will be negatively affected by increased unemployment in this sector. Remember, the unemployed don’t …
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Warren Buffett sold another $981 MILLION shares of Bank of America. ‼️Buffett now holds $278 Billion in CASH and selling stocks like never before, including Apple. He's getting ready for a crash… pic.twitter.com/XUkxj3whAd — Radar 𝘸 Archie🚨 (@RadarHits) August 28, 2024 The Buffett Indicator (Total US Market Value/GDP) is a ballpark measure …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) – The “low-hiring, low-firing” approach that U.S. businesses currently take to their employment decisions …
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1826800230911934687 pic.twitter.com/kjGOfTh9Fe — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 23, 2024 "Housing supply is surging as a record number of buyers get cold feet amid sky-high prices" uhhhhh oh pic.twitter.com/nYAOp902BC — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 22, 2024
BREAKING: Lumber prices have declined to their lowest level since the 2020 pandemic, down 80% in 2 years. Lumber is a leading indicator for the US housing market, global economic conditions, and inflation. The rapid drop in lumber prices suggests that the US residential… pic.twitter.com/Ksc6aqczI0 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 15, 2024 Housing Permits …
Gold prices closed at record levels today, but what’s even more significant: The gold-to-Nasdaq ratio is currently on the brink of breaking out from a historical resistance. Here is a reminder that this ratio surged 13x from the peak of the tech bubble in 2000 to 2011.… pic.twitter.com/UUVG14HImK — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 12, …
As the White House faces uncertainty, JPMorgan and Citi warn of impending economic disaster. Over $500 Billion in Unrealized Losses | U.S. Banks In recent years, the U.S. banking sector has experienced significant shifts due to rising interest rates and the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. One critical area of concern is the surge in …
The Mel Rule, which is based on state-level data, has been triggered, indicating a potential recession. This rule is similar to the Sahm Rule, but it focuses on state-specific unemployment rates. When state-level unemployment rates rise by 0.5 percentage point or more over a three-month period, it signals a likely recession. The idea behind this approach is …
BREAKING 🚨: Japan Japanese Yen is in imminent danger of falling to the 160 level against the U.S. Dollar and is on track for an 8th consecutive daily decline against the USD! Absolute collapse here! pic.twitter.com/V2SE3W52zw — Barchart (@Barchart) June 24, 2024 USD/JPY pic.twitter.com/oL2Qdgsiob — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) June 24, 2024 Japan says it's …
Going into this past week, the highest Nvidia daily call volume was 5 million set in March of this year. This past week, it surpassed that record four times. The highest call volume on record was Friday, almost 10 million. I think we're seeing PEAK AI. pic.twitter.com/Uy36eqjJ5N — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 16, 2024 https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1802658401056367089 Core …
It appears that there is a significant decline in China’s M1 money supply growth rate. According to the data and tweets provided, the M1 money supply in China has been decreasing since June 2023, with the most recent figures showing a 4.2% year-on-year decline in May 2024. This is a notable shift from the previous …
🚨BREAKING: Banking Stress Escalates – FED discount-window loans hit $6.46B for the week ended June 12th, up from $6.19B. – Significant increase signals rising stress in the banking sector. – Experts warn of increased reliance on emergency funding especially in regional banks pic.twitter.com/WmxBngnXM8 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) June 13, 2024 We did 🫣notice the …
Biden signed new guidelines on the conditions for the US use of nuclear weapons. This was announced by Special Assistant to the US President, Senior Director for Arms Control at the National Security Council Pranay Vaddi. "The updated guidance takes into account the realities of… pic.twitter.com/hKDnSRa6Og — Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) June 7, 2024 https://twitter.com/WorldCrisi19621/status/1799137288515117507 US …
US consumer borrowing has ground to a halt. Tapped out? pic.twitter.com/KH335Qw4lD — PPG (@PPGMacro) May 29, 2024 The recent data on U.S. consumer borrowing paints a concerning picture of financial stability. Delinquency rates, which Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank highlighted as a critical indicator, have indeed surged in early 2024. This uptick …
The Japanese 10 year yield hit a 10 year high this week on rate hike bets:https://t.co/TZXAnaEC3e“The 10-year yield has risen gradually on the back of view that the BOJ will lift interest rates sooner and cut bond-purchase amounts at its operations” Meanwhile, the U.S. 10 year… pic.twitter.com/FXS79f69CL — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 24, 2024 2023 was …
Copper prices surge to an unprecedented high of $5.08 per pound, marking a staggering 30% increase year-to-date and fueling concerns of rampant inflation. This new record surpasses the previous peak observed in March 2022, coinciding with the fastest inflation rate in 40 years. Over the past three months alone, copper prices have skyrocketed by 35%, …
As Bitcoin’s price tumbles by over 22% from its peak, marking its descent into a bear market, investors face a stark reality check after a prolonged period of soaring values. With prices dipping below $60,000 for the first time since February and recording the most significant drop since November 2022, anticipation mounts for potential record …
With fund managers reaching their highest bullish sentiment since January 2022 and cash levels dropping close to the contrarian sell signal, coupled with the Financial Stability Board’s advice to hedge funds to increase liquidity for market shocks, there are indications of an impending market reversal. Fund Managers are the most bullish on stocks since January …
The latest data on housing starts reveals a 4.28% year-over-year decline, marking a significant shift in trend and raising questions about the state of the housing market. Housing starts, a key economic indicator, reflect the initiation of construction on new privately owned houses within a given period, offering insights into future real estate supply levels …
The precipitous decline in the value of a prominent Class A office tower, 750 Lexington in NYC, sends shockwaves through the commercial real estate sector, with Morningstar reporting an alarming 83% decrease in valuation since 2015. The transfer of a $130M loan tied to the building into special servicing due to default further exacerbates concerns …
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s report reveals alarming trends, with almost 3.5% of card balances overdue by at least 30 days, the highest on record. This surge in delinquencies, coupled with rising minimum payments and increased credit card balances, underscores the growing financial strain on US households. BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US credit card delinquency rates …