Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
I always find this chart staggering to look at. We've never seen the Federal Reserve slow the economy this violently before. Rates went from 0% to 5.33% within 18 months. That's unheard of. https://t.co/KoQ4CsPV0H pic.twitter.com/2vldAWuGei — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 23, 2023 Don't believe that data. If inflation is 10% but official numbers say 5%, then …
via RT: Global logistics companies have been hit with rising ocean and air freight prices and stranded cargo as a result of vessels being diverted from the Red Sea amid the risk of attacks from Houthi militants in Yemen. According to a CNBC report this week citing industry experts, the situation threatens global supply chains, …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! New home sales dropped like Biden’s popularity in November, down -12.2% from October. While existing home sales bounced very modestly off record lows in November, it has been the ‘strength’ of new home sales – with buyer heavily subsidized by homebuilders – that has held up the housing market. Of course, investors don’t …
2/4Lower deposit rates may be justified, given low and negative inflation, but their impact on Chinese consumption is complex. On the one hand, they may encourage Chinese households to save less out of current income, although this depends on their saving targets. — Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) December 22, 2023 4/4The best way to redirect demand …
When prices keep rising and people keep struggling with a crap economy and piss poor government policies increasing interest rates won’t help normal people and so you’ll just have more bankruptcy and poor. h/t TonyLiberty
https://twitter.com/TRUMP4USD/status/1735657299811909701 Save this article headline … This is going to be one of those we look back on and laugh at. pic.twitter.com/qJs5C4TwJD — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) December 15, 2023 *WILLIAMS: WE AREN’T REALLY TALKING ABOUT RATE CUTS RIGHT NOW Two days ago: POWELL: RATE CUTS ARE A TOPIC OF DISCUSSION RIGHT NOW — zerohedge …
by confoundedinterest17 Here comes Biden Claus, right down Constitution Avenue, bringing you a Christmas present of … 165% mortgage interest rates!! Mortgage applications increased 7.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 8, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a …
by confoundedinterest17 The song “Running on Empty” by Jackson Browne comes to mind when analyzing the state of American banking, especially regional banks. Yesterday we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge ($290BN in six weeks), and more importantly, regional banks’ usage of The Fed’s BTFP bailout facility surged to a new record high (even …
via JAMES RICKARDS: Are gold prices and interest rates joined at the hip? Based on recent market action, it would appear the answer is: yes. A major rally in gold is now underway. Gold moved from $1,831 per ounce on Oct. 6 to $2,091 per ounce on Dec. 1, a 14.1% rally in just eight …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 The melt up will continue until “something breaks and fed pivots”
A sudden spike in SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) points to a mounting reserve shortage and an overnight repo spike, surprising many as SOFR printed at 5.39% on Friday. This departure from the market’s accustomed pattern, where overnight Repo GC rates spike without a corresponding rise in SOFR, underscores the imperfections of SOFR as a …
by DesmondMilesDan BIS today came out with a new narrative. It’s the EMs that will suffer most from debt rollover. And then Bofa came up with a research piece that shows SPX500 debt maturing in manageable term but no Russell. Meaning if rate cuts do happen russell and EMs will benefit the most atleast in …
by Virtual_Crow The RRP facility is used to take excess liquidity out of the system. Banks have a ton of extra deposits that they would loan out, and if there’s too little demand for loans they’d loan it at less than 5% (for short term loans). The Fed doesn’t want that because loaned deposits multiply …
Why ARE so many young people suffering heart attacks? Rates have DOUBLED in a decade among some under-30s as experts insist soaring obesity rates are to blame via dailymail.co.uk Heart attacks among young people in England are on the rise, MailOnline analysis shows. Cases in some younger age groups have almost doubled over the last …
Bank of Japan’s paper loss on JGB holdings grows to record $71bn Higher rates could erode finances if central bank moves toward easing exit TOKYO — The Bank of Japan’s unrealized losses on its Japanese government bond holdings swelled to 10.5 trillion yen ($71.2 billion) at the end of September, according to financial statements released …
by Chris Black If memory serves, best Korea has the worst birth rate in the world. However, I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say that the birthrate problem is not a result of people not being able to meet each other. This is a hard to pill to swallow, but stick with …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve reminds me of The Stones’ song “Tumbling Dice.” Why? The Fed can’t tell if inflation is cooling or re-accelerating. Hence, they are just rolling dice. Let’s start with mortgage rates, a critical component of the housing and CRE markets. Mortgage rates remain up 163% since 2021, not great for housing affordability. Despite …
Recent data from Redfin reveals a notable shift in the real estate landscape, indicating a decline of over $100 in the median monthly mortgage payment within the last month. This coincides with a drop in mortgage rates from 8% to 7.3%. Despite the potential benefit for homebuyers, Redfin emphasizes that high mortgage rates are contributing …
The car market in a nut-shell: 1) Interest rates at 20-year highs. 2) Consumer savings depleted. 3) Vehicle prices slowly normalizing (with some exceptions). And yet… sales volumes are fine. The real looming issue in the industry right now? Undoubtedly margin compression.… — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) November 21, 2023
Bonds are now more volatile than Gold for the first time in 40+ years. Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/nRqT19FAIR — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 21, 2023 ⚠️ANOTHER ONE FOR THE #DTCC “WEIRDER THINGS” RECORDS ⚠️ According to this note below, the Cusip ID of a UBS bond due to settle tomorrow has been “deleted” 🤨 …
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. h/t ChampionshipUsed9855
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm TLDRS Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking! Credit Card delinquencies up! All consumer loan deliquesces are up! Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks is up! https://dismal-jellyfish.com/banks-alert-delinquency-rates-surge/ h/t Dismal-Jellyfish
Japan faces a significant economic shift as bankers grapple with the challenge of learning to raise rates, prompted by a back-to-back wage bonanza. The move is seen as opening the door for a potential exit from the ultra-loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), with Pimco already positioning by buying yen in preparation …
via Nikkei: BEIJING — China is struggling to reverse its declining births, with some estimates expecting drops of more than 10% this year to below 9 million, as young people remain wary of their economic prospects even after the end of the country’s stringent zero-COVID restrictions. “China’s newborns have declined by 40% over the past …
US Fertility Rates in massive decline. 🔊 …😮 pic.twitter.com/mNAbgUqRkr — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) November 17, 2023
The sustained 18-month decline in the Conference Board Leading Indicator is a worrying trend reminiscent of historical economic crises, particularly in 1973-74 and during the Global Financial Crisis. The current -7.8% decrease aligns with significant economic downturns over the past six decades, indicating a potential hard landing. This, coupled with a high and rising loan …
Auto loan delinquencies among subprime borrowers reached a nearly-30-year high in September of 6.1% – the highest rate since 1994, per the Fed. Read more: https://t.co/MLaHAqNcKg — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 15, 2023 Auto Insurance rates are crazy…40% up in 2 years. More accidents has to be the cause. Plus the cost to repair has skyrocketed …
Great, let the Fed cut rates. It's already doing QE in the form of the BTFP and cranking back up O/N repos. Gold, silver and mining stocks will do a moon-shothttps://t.co/HwFowOoggs https://t.co/DosPFhP7VR — Dave Kranzler (@InvResDynamics) November 15, 2023
The financial landscape is in tumult as repo rates soar, with banks heavily borrowing to address liquidity concerns and a looming specter of potential economic deflation. Adding to the complexity, Chinese banks have entered the scene, issuing an extraordinary volume of short-term debt at penalty rates, coinciding with unusual activities by the Chinese Communist Party …
