Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said he doesn’t think the Federal Reserve should begin lowering interest rates by June and should instead wait for more clarity. “If I were them, I would wait,” Dimon said at the Australian Financial Review business summit via livestream in Sydney. The suggestion from the boss of the nation’s …
Additionally, US consumer SERIOUS (90+ days) delinquency rates in auto loans and credit card debt for the most productive cohort (18-39) have been the highest since the Great Financial Crisis The mighty US consumer is getting through some notable issueshttps://t.co/puJCEOhOzW — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) March 11, 2024
Sharp increase in mortgage borrowers filing for bankruptcy called ‘worrying trend’ More Canadians are beginning to crack under the pressure of increased mortgage payments, new data on consumer credit showed today. Article content Mortgage delinquency rates were up more than 50 per cent at the end of last year from the year before, with two …
by confoundedinterest17 Well, this might keep The Fed talking heads up at night. Over the past year or so, the Fed has been intensely discussing inflation in “core services,” which is where inflation had shifted to in 2022, from goods inflation which had spiked into mid-2022 but then cooled dramatically. So “core services” is where …
TOKYO, Feb 27 (Reuters) – The number of babies born in Japan fell for an eighth straight year to a fresh record low in 2023, preliminary government data showed on Tuesday, underscoring the daunting task the country faces in trying to stem depopulation. The number of births fell 5.1% from a year earlier to 758,631, …
March is bringing more than just the promise of spring; it’s also delivering a dose of economic tension as regional banks find themselves in a pressure cooker. High-interest rates coupled with challenges in the commercial real estate market have set the stage for a financial storm, and the expiration of a short-term federal loan program …
https://twitter.com/GRomePow/status/1760045649704464486/history
by Phoenix Capital Research Inflation is going in the wrong direction again… and that is BAD news for stocks. If you’ll recall, the primary driver of the recent rally in stocks was the Fed suggesting that it would soon begin cutting rates. Indeed, it was a speech by Fed Governor Waller concerning that exact topic …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve (aka, The Keep) is back in the saddle again. The Fed has been unable to control inflation since Federal government spending was so fast and furious after Covid that little thought was given to the long-term ramifications of insane spending. Not to mention The Fed’s overreaction to Covid. Example? Home price growth …
Inflation coming back like it was 2023. Shipping costs are rising fast amid geopolitical tensions pic.twitter.com/RI2bzGFKbo — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) February 17, 2024 h/t Tonight We Ride!
by Michael According to the New York Fed, total household debt in the United States increased by 212 billion dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023. It is now sitting at a grand total of 17.5 trillion dollars. I suppose the good news is that we aren’t 34 trillion dollars in debt like the federal …
As inflation and steep interest rates persist, Americans are accumulating more credit card debt, with the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit expected to reveal a new record exceeding $1.08 trillion. Despite Fed Chair Powell’s assurance that another real estate-led banking crisis akin to 2008 is unlikely, he anticipates …
by confoundedinterest17 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just admitted what the rest of Americans already knew: high prices are here to stay. Example? Food prices (CPI) are up over 20% under Inflation Joe while gasoline prices are up 38% under Clueless Joe. On the housing front, the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is up 33.2% under …
The commercial real estate (CRE) landscape is facing a challenging scenario, with 14% of all CRE loans and a staggering 44% of office building loans slipping into “negative equity.” This indicates that the debt on these properties now surpasses their market value. The current downturn, with office building prices plummeting by 40%, has pushed CRE …
The Yahoo Finance article sheds light on a concerning decline in consumer confidence, especially among American families earning under $100,000. While the inflation rate has ostensibly dropped to 3.4% in December 2023 from a peak of 7.2% in December 2021, the alleviation is not translating into relief for many households. The culprit? Skyrocketing interest rates. …
A sense of foreboding emerges as 91% of fund managers unite in the belief that interest rates are destined to fall. This unnervingly high consensus has historically preceded major market downturns, reminiscent of the Dotcom bear market in 2000-2001, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the Covid panic in 2020. Adding to the apprehension, …
via independent: The EU’s imports of refined oil imports from India grew to record levels in 2023 at the same time as New Delhi’s imports of Russian crude oil more than doubled year on year. It means consumers in Europe likely received unprecedented volumes of petrol, diesel, kerosene and other oil products that originate from …
by confoundedinterest17 We are closing out the first week of the New Year and 30-year conforming mortgage rates are up slighlty. Mortgage rate GROWTH is now at 8% year-over-year (YoY). While M2 Money growth has died and is down -3% YoY. Bank credit growth has been negative since July 2023 and M2 Money growth has …
Add in the buy now pay later loans at checkout, the subprime auto loans, the payday loans. The loan sharks never had it so good. Another new all-time high for consumer credit card interest rates pic.twitter.com/BWeavhTbEO — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 10, 2024 Yeah. Moreover, serious delinquencies have been rapidly rising. In some age …
via Mike Shedlock: Total consumer credit, revolving credit, and credit card interest rates all hit new record highs in November. Consumer credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish Adjusted for inflation, revolving credit is approaching the record high hit during the Great Recession. Revolving Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars Nominal and Real In …
Just when all zombie companies hoped that rates go down in time for them to roll debt pic.twitter.com/EjdXNOAirz — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) January 11, 2024 Breaking: December Inflation Comes in Hot Inflation higher than expected and breaks trend in recent months of reduced inflation. Breaking: US CPI Inflation Situation – Headline CPI comes in …
by mark000 The financial plumbing is getting problematic which will require rate cuts and to end QT. Meanwhile global trade supply issues, OIL, govt deficit, wage growth etc may be calling for rate hikes at the same time. 2024 going to be very interesting This crisis is going to occur during Q1, so within the …
Oh boy. Global freight rate for containers just surged 61% this week. Not the time to celebrate the end of inflation. A second wave is likely underway. H/t @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/X9K2DZJDWR — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 5, 2024 The global freight rate for containers has surged by a staggering 61% this week, casting a shadow …
Starting off 2024 with: – Record U.S. debt – Record U.S. debt interest payments – Expected record U.S. Treasury issuances in 2024 – Record speculative-grade debt maturing over the next 5 years – Moody’s downgrades U.S. to "negative" from "stable" – Interest rates near… pic.twitter.com/idv0E9kdgW — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) January 2, 2024 And if …
The specter of the 2008 housing crisis is haunting 2024, echoing familiar themes of manipulated interest rates and speculative asset mania. The belief that “prices only go up” has fueled a dangerous déjà vu, reminiscent of the days preceding the previous crash. As rates rise, home sales volumes collapse, and builders resort to offering incentives …
🚨🚨 NEW RENTS IN TORONTO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET DOWN ALMOST $300/mo SINCE AUG FOR A 2 BEDROOM TORONTO HAS THE MOST LEVERAGED LANDLORDS IN CANADA — CASHFLOW CRISIS INCOMING pic.twitter.com/XmUfbUqaiT — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) January 1, 2024
$7.6 trillion of US government debt will mature in the next year, adding pressure on rates A whopping $7.6 trillion in interest-bearing US public debt will mature within a year, Apollo’s chief economist said in September. That represents 31% of all outstanding US government debt, adding upward pressure on rates. That’s still below 2020, when …
This is what a concentrated market looks like The top 10 stocks make up a staggering 35% of the S&P 500 index Such an elevated level was last seen during the Dot Com bubble pic.twitter.com/9Yeez17XMl — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) December 25, 2023 Home prices may pick up speed after the Fed cuts rates with 88% …
