Starting off 2024 with:
– Record U.S. debt
– Record U.S. debt interest payments
– Expected record U.S. Treasury issuances in 2024
– Record speculative-grade debt maturing over the next 5 years
– Moody’s downgrades U.S. to "negative" from "stable"
– Interest rates near… pic.twitter.com/idv0E9kdgW
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) January 2, 2024
And if central banks are not buying as much U.S debt as they previously have – than domestic buyers – institutions, pension funds and retail – will need to be.
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) January 2, 2024
Already outpacing Defense Spending, as you can see in this chart from Otavio Costa: pic.twitter.com/FSHjhWtk4h
— Phoenix Capital (@PhoenixCapitalH) January 2, 2024
US Interest expense ~$1.1 trillion as of today. That's $250BN more than the Defense Budget; $250BN more than spending on Medicare, $200BN more than spending on health, and will surpass the $1.35 trillion spending on Social Security this year, becoming the single biggest outlay t.co/ljAQJi9fQ0 pic.twitter.com/jqGnVoSAPX
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 3, 2024
The biggest consensus trade in the market?
Short bond yields.
62% of institutional investors expect bond yields to fall, pushing bond prices higher.
Just 6 months ago, only 10% of institutional investors held this view.
To put this in perspective, even in 2008 and 2020, we… pic.twitter.com/Gsv8TAuiYO
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 2, 2024