Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED. You know what that means!
🚨TRUMP RAISES GLOBAL TARIFF TO 15% Donald Trump announced he will immediately increase the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%, following what he called a flawed and “anti-American” United States Supreme Court decision. He said the move targets countries he accuses of… pic.twitter.com/woHVkzzRMH — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 21, 2026 German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, …
Not what you want to see if you're a bull$SPY l $QQQ pic.twitter.com/7bsAVheUq0 — Tradable Astronaut (@TradableAstro) February 17, 2026 Wow. pic.twitter.com/Bw2KyivVlE — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) February 18, 2026 🚨 THE WORLD HAS NEVER BEEN THIS UNCERTAIN!!! Global uncertainty just reached the HIGHEST level in history. The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) has now surpassed …
“Global money is moving back toward safety and stability, and Switzerland is one of the cleanest places for that to show up. When investors start worrying about growth holding up, inflation staying weak, or political risk rising elsewhere, they’re willing to accept very low or even negative yields in exchange for certainty. In that sense, …
BREAKING: Gold prices surge above a record $4,600/oz and Silver prices surge above a record $84/oz amid elevated levels of uncertainty. Asset owners are winning. pic.twitter.com/StEDEgEUAj — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 12, 2026 $93.90 Shanghai….whopping $10.25 spread byu/Gairsoppa inWallstreetsilver
BOJ rate decision this week.💹 The bond market has decided for the BOJ, which is why it’s most likely they will hike rates and it would be a colossal mistake if they don’t. More importantly, the BOJ is likely to pledge continued gradual rate hikes this week. This could trigger the carry trade unwind and …
Gold is piercing a level that has held for 45 years. Moves of this size never happen in calm markets. Confidence in the current monetary system is fraying. The rally is powered by record central bank buying, ballooning U.S. debt, Fed credibility under question, and geopolitical fractures. The mainstream media has no idea why gold …
DAX is breaking down hard. That is not just a Europe problem it is a global risk off signal. Capital is rotating. Expect the US dollar to catch a bid as investors flee to safety. Watch DXY, EUR USD, and gold closely. This move is just getting started. DAX looks like its breaking down… pic.twitter.com/dlLdU3fzbf …
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs have been raised and lowered – now they’ve been blocked then reinstated. It’s a reminder that uncertainty is the only certainty. Here’s how this economic uncertainty is affecting our savings… By Peter Reagan The current state of the U.S. economy can be summed up in one word: chaos. We’re not talking Ghostbusters level …
by Michael How are businesses supposed to plan for the future if they have no idea what the rules of the game are going to be? Businesses thrive in a predictable environment, but we have entered a period of time of extreme uncertainty. One day we are facing high tariffs, the next day one court …
Monthly Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at its highest level in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/MJGzrhLpxi — Barchart (@Barchart) May 19, 2025 Economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high. pic.twitter.com/5Ln2KXdR82 — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 14, 2025
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index soars to highest level in history 🚨 Congrats everyone, we did it 🥳🍾🫡 pic.twitter.com/ej3UmjGk1q — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025
Swaps — a historic move, Lehmanesque. The beast inside the market is about to break the Fed. A colossal policy reversal is coming. https://t.co/ewp0mUHB2k pic.twitter.com/r8psEJW3fL — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) April 9, 2025 Literally off the charts, no further comments necessary pic.twitter.com/As70Iob5rv — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) April 10, 2025 If the Yen breaks, liquidity breaks… …
Credit to this site for the graph: https://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.html 2/ The US stock market has staged a sharp rally off recent lows This comes immediately after some of the most oversold conditions seen since 2020 Given that level of selling pressure, a relief rally was almost inevitable pic.twitter.com/SecPiDFPuY — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 31, 2025 4/ …
BOSTIC: FAMILIES AND FIRMS ARE TELLING THE FED THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW WHERE THE ECONOMY IS HEADING PROJECTION OF INFLATION FOR THIS YEAR IS NOW PRETTY MUCH SIDEWAYS; NO RETURN TO TARGET UNTIL 2027 NO JUST SEE ONE CUT THIS YEAR, EXPECTING INFLATION TO BE VERY BUMPY — PiQ (@PiQSuite) March 24, 2025 BOSTIC: BUSINESSES …
The world is awash in uncertainty; it now exceeds the onset of the pandemic in 2020. pic.twitter.com/bwkNWbDefU — Diane Swonk (@DianeSwonk) February 16, 2025 Bears must love SPX seasonality for the next 30-40 days. pic.twitter.com/cJOxQ30YCI — BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles) February 15, 2025 ‼️Short-sellers are CAPITULATING: Short interest on S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has declined to …
$SPY first-hour trading volume was notably high, with approximately 24 million shares exchanged. A similar pattern occurred on December 30, 2024, when SPY experienced a gap down at the open, followed by two consecutive green hourly candles, before declining further later in the session. This historical context suggests that despite initial buying interest, the market …
If we are at the beginning or middle of a bull market like some here say, then why are there so few new public offerings? The lack of IPOs is one of the biggest tells that we are at the end of the cycle. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/GXkpY1AI1T — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) December 18, 2024 Dial …
Damian Williams’ resignation shakes up the Southern District of New York and could have major implications for Diddy’s case. Diddy’s high-profile legal battle with federal authorities descended into further upheaval Tuesday as Damian Williams, the U.S. Attorney at the helm of case preparations, announced his resignation from his post in the Southern District of New …
In October 2024, small business uncertainty skyrocketed to an all-time high. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Uncertainty Index hit a staggering 110, the highest it has ever been. This jump in concern stemmed from the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with many small business owners fearing the potential economic shifts under …
⚠️MEANWHILE, US EXECUTIVES ARE SELLING STOCKS LIKE CRAZY⚠️ The insider sell-to-buy ratio jumped to the highest level since 2021 While managers were busy offering promising earnings outlook of their firms, at the same time they were selling their stocks👇https://t.co/bIERMrrT9K — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 28, 2024
“Stellar NFIB Sep report showing an economy steaming ahead at full throttle. Max uncertainty – highest on record, higher than during COVID Ease of hiring – Sep major easing vs August completely at odds with NFP – As easy as Dec 19 (Smalls are largest private employers in US) % planning capex spend down 5 …
“Is the market volatility set to surge in the coming months? Over the last 30 years, US yield curves have been a leading indicator for the volatility index, $VIX, with roughly a 36-month lag. The periods of flattening and inverted yield curves have been associated with suppressed volatility. On the other hand, once yield curves …
Some other conspiratorial points about Gold strength have to do with its continued usage as neutral reserve asset for trade settlement in BRICS and away from US$/UST. This week, China leadership is in Saudi talking to MBS about various things but including pricing oil in RMB.… — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) September 12, 2024 Gold just …
Agency says milk supply is safe, but acknowledges a lack of testing. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is not sure whether any intact highly pathogenic avian influenza is present in milk sold in grocery stores, an FDA official told a conference on April 25. “Does any live virus survive the pasteurization process? … …
All of this mixed messaging just confuses markets. They should all just shut up — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 4, 2024 #volatility #VIX 📈 😬https://t.co/rmPvUGEeB3 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) April 4, 2024 Let me get this straight, the SPX was up 40 points in the morning because Powell reaffirmed rate cuts yesterday. And down -70 …
The National Weather Service’s snowfall forecasts are undergoing some unexpected edits, akin to rearranging puzzle pieces with a paintbrush. NWS offices are fine-tuning their predictions, with NWS Boston holding steadfast till the very last moment. In a sudden twist, snowfall totals in New England have been chopped in half, leaving forecasters and residents surprised. However, …
Banking rollercoaster: From denial to acknowledgment, uncertainty surrounds likelihood of commercial bank failures. Real estate magnate Barry Sternlicht has sounded the alarm on the challenges facing the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, particularly the office market, labeling it an “existential crisis.” Sternlicht estimates that the $3 trillion asset class is now likely worth around $1.8 …
via amgreatness: Let’s acknowledge once again that, as the English Prime Minister Harold Wilson once observed, a week is a long time in politics. The world is in a yeasty state at the moment. Who knows what will happen with the millions of illegal, mostly hostile, migrants that Biden has let into the country? Who …
