Sudden SOFR Spike Sparks Concerns of Mounting Reserve Shortage and Surging Overnight Repo Rates.

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A sudden spike in SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) points to a mounting reserve shortage and an overnight repo spike, surprising many as SOFR printed at 5.39% on Friday. This departure from the market’s accustomed pattern, where overnight Repo GC rates spike without a corresponding rise in SOFR, underscores the imperfections of SOFR as a hedge for Repo and financing—described metaphorically as the “cleanest dirty shirt.”

Adding to the intrigue, a casual request for $200 million in the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) suggests increased activity in the overnight repo market, surpassing levels observed during regional bank challenges in April/May. Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) predicts a resurgence in inflation in the coming months. If this scenario unfolds, the Federal Reserve may find itself constrained, making it challenging to bail out banks once again.




Repo-Market Spikes Conjure Memories of September 2019 US Funding Turmoil

(Bloomberg) — Spikes in a key short-term interest rate are raising eyebrows in the arcane-but-vital overnight funding market, drawing unsettling comparisons with turmoil that rocked the space more than four years ago.

 

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