Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The US will need to refinance almost half of its national debt in less than 2 years. Let’s not forget that interest rates were at 0% just 15 months ago. Wait until these debt instruments need to be rolled over at 5% rates. The U.S. credit rating outlook was lowered from “stable” to “negative” this …
This is scary. Remember according to DSM-IV criteria,7 an individual is diagnosed with mental retardation if they have significantly below average intellectual functioning, as defined by an intelligence quotient (IQ; measured using a standardized, individually administer/red intelligence test) at or below 70 I took the numbers from these 2 sites. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/birth-rate/country-comparison/ https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/average-iq-by-country I made a …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 Gold is currently trading at $1,999.90 per ounce, up 0.72% from yesterday’s close of $1,983.18 per ounce. Gold prices are up 28.4% since December 2007 and have outperformed the 3-month Treasury yield by a wide margin over that time period.
As the U.S. Treasury continues to issue trillions of dollars in new debt with relatively short maturities, there is a growing sense of unease. The strategy relies on the hope that interest rates will come down when this debt is ready to be rolled over, but if rates go up instead, it could lead to …
https://twitter.com/BeRuzzia/status/1718131312219824235?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Russia’s Central Bank on Friday raised its key interest rate by two percentage points to 15 percent, a bigger increase than expected as the bank said it was trying to bring down stubbornly high inflation. The central bank, which said the annual inflation rate would range from 7 to 7.5 percent this year, …
The notion of “excess savings” appears to be unraveling as the U.S. Savings Rate took a notable hit in September. We can cancel the "excess savings" idiocy In Sept, the US Savings Rate collapsed from 4.0% to 3.4%, the lowest this year, and the 4th month in a row of declines. And this is after …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics is the gift that keeps on giving … if you are one of the top 1% of income. But if you are in the middle class, Bidenomics is like a horror movie. Pending home sales fell 7.1% in August 2023, with all four regions of the U.S. posting month-over-month and year-over-year declines …
The era of near-zero interest rates has given rise to a series of what many may consider absurd business ventures, including the likes of “buy now, pay later,” car vending machines, extravagant digital art sales, algorithmic home buying, and virtual metaverse offices. During such times of readily available capital, even seemingly weak ideas manage to …
Financial winter is coming. h/t Mayhem4Markets
The surge in US credit card debt, surpassing the significant $1 trillion threshold, is a cause for concern. This comes as the Federal Reserve has taken aggressive steps to raise interest rates, leading to credit card rates reaching an alarming 21.19%. US credit card debt is off the charts It has now crossed the $1 …
Subprime is a fancy word for sh*t credit score. h/t Mayhem4Markets
by confoundedinterest17 The US is teetering on World War III with tensions soaring in the Middle East, Ukraine, and southeast Asia. And Biden wanders off to Rehobeth Beach Delaware to relax … while over 200 Americans are still held hostage by terrorist group Hamas. The bad news? Biden is back in Washington DC trying to …
Global Supply Chains continue to function well and are no longer a valid excuse justifying above-average inflation. pic.twitter.com/Tt2AT8AxG6 — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 24, 2023
The People’s Bank of China’s massive cash injection of 733 billion yuan, an unprecedented record high, through reverse repos sends a clear message that policymakers are committed to maintaining low interest rates to boost the emerging economic recovery. Additionally, China’s issuance of $137 billion in sovereign debt underscores their dedication to supporting their economy during …
Cities like Phoenix on the brink of recording all-time high eviction numbers, as a growing number of apartments resort to desperate measures, including offering three months of free rent, amidst an unprecedented construction boom. The housing rental market is absolutely FUCKED. We've been reporting cracks in vacancy rates for over 6 months. Its ugly, we're …
by John-Wetter-2310 ‣ United States 10-Year Treasury Yield hits 4.86%. The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates and is also seen as a sign of investor sentiment about the economy. ‣ United States Prime Rate hits 8.5%. The United States Prime Rate is the interest rate that banks charge their best, most creditworthy customers. ‣ The …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 Long-term Treasury rates increased from 3.5% to 5% during last 6 months. It may push long-term inflation above current expectations. US government has debt of 120% GDP and duration of 7+ years, therefore this 1.5 percent increase in long-term interest rate will increase interest payment by 1.8% GDP. It may look tiny, but …
by confoundedinterest17 I had a wonderful time speaking at the Passive Investors Conference last night. One question I was asked was “Why doesn’t Powell (the current Fed Chair) pull “a Volcker” to cool inflation. She was referring to former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s sudden raising of The Fed’s target rate which resulted in a cooling …
by confoundedinterest17 Fire! Yes, Biden and Congress created a fire with it reckless Federal spending leading in 40-year highs inflation, prompting The Fed to counterattack with rapid rate hikes. We now see the 10-year Treasury yield passing 5%. And the REAL 10-year Treasury yield passing 2.46%. And Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate survey is at 7.63%, …
Homebuyers today face paying $500,000 more in the course of a 30-year mortgage than they would have done two years ago after rates shot up to 8 percent. Analysis by DailyMail.com found that in 2021, an individual purchasing a $400,000 home would pay just $1,621 each month on their loan. However, today that figure stands …
Rates Are Ruining the Housing Market ⚠️Persistent inflation in shelter is evident at 7.2%, with rental inflation at 7.4% ⚠️The median mortgage payment, excluding fees and taxes, has surpassed $2,800 monthly ⚠️Since 1985, median household income has risen just under 40%, while… pic.twitter.com/rni6R4VyVK — Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) October 18, 2023 30-Year Treasury Yield closes at 5% …
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: High-quality debt created by data provider BondCliQ. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl… Caption: This H-portfolio contains 30 bonds covering major sectors such as tech, utilities, energy and financials, and includes bonds sold by Deere Capital Corp., Lowe’s Cos Inc., AMZN etc. This is the largest, most liquid, market in the world. It is heading …
Mortgage Rates Close to 8% as Economy Refuses to Cool Inflation and economic growth… Regardless of our thoughts on the underlying reasons, these two factors have played a key role in skyrocketing rates over the past few years. The Fed won’t signal an end to its “higher for longer” rate policies until it sees lower …
Eurozone interest rates are at all-time highs 🚨 pic.twitter.com/rEQorle5Gh — Barchart (@Barchart) October 17, 2023
When was the last time 30 year U.S. treasuries went no bid two times in a row? — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 12, 2023 Ahhh it was a terrible 30 year auction causing yields to jump. Apparently no one is buying anymore, warning that we're very close to the end for markets. https://t.co/TDdTFR5SHQ — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) …
by TonyLiberty Mortgage demand drops to the lowest levels since 1996 as interest rates hit 8%. Mortgage applications for home purchases are down 22% compared to a year ago. Rising rates are pushing more potential homebuyers out of the market but the Federal Reserve is expected to keep raising interest rates to fight inflation. …
Delinquency rates on credit card loans and auto loans are rising. But delinquency rates on mortgages as near all time lower. Why? Because so many mortgages are locked-in to low rates. Truly a unique time. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2023
This is proof that she will say anything for a buck. h/t j_stars
