Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (CBS12) — Florida is experiencing a rise in gas prices, with the state average climbing 84 cents over the past 12 days, according to AAA. As of Sunday, AAA said that drivers are paying an average of $3.72 per gallon, marking the highest daily average since August 2023. Price Comparison Here …
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007? This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail …
The Afghan national accused of shooting two National Guardsmen in a possible terror attack near the White House Wednesday was living in the US illegally after overstaying his visa, sources told The Post. Rahmanullah Lakanwal, 29, arrived in the US through Operation Allies Welcome, the botched 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal plan that allowed roughly 90,000 Afghans …
This is how recessions start, one empty table at a time. If 30-year-olds can’t afford Chipotle, what happens when the real slowdown hits. Either Chipotle has collapsed as a brand or young Americans are out of money. Or, both. What is happening here? pic.twitter.com/1gIAEzmrf1 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 30, 2025 They tried college …
by confoundedinterest17 Case-Shiller home price indices are out today. The Case-Shiller NATIONAL home price index is up 1.5% on a year-over-year basis, but down -0.30% on a month-over-month basis). Don’t worry. The Fed won’t stop printing money.
Southern California home sales fell to their lowest level for an August on record as stubbornly elevated prices and mortgage rates – plus economic uncertainty – scared off house hunters. The six-county region had 14,476 sales in the month, according to Attom’s tracking of closed transactions involving houses and condos, both existing and newly constructed. …
$1.33 trillion in credit card debt. That is not strength. That is panic. The average family owes $10,668. You can feel it in the lines at the grocery store, in the gas pump, in the monthly bills that never stop. Yellen says it shows “a strong consumer.” Families call it desperation. First Brands just collapsed. …
by Mike Maharrey After unexpectedly surging in July, consumer debt returned to its previous trend and flatlined again in August, signaling growing financial stress on American households. The growth of revolving debt, primarily reflecting credit card debt, has been slowing all year. It contracted in May and June, after a one-off surge in April, before …
August hiring plans were the lowest since 2009. U.S. employers have announced 892,362 layoffs YTD, the most since 2020. Excluding COVID, this is the worst since the Great Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/6T7dxzZjvo — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) October 4, 2025 It’s no wonder that the younger generations – Gen z and especially millennials are feeling much less confident …
PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2% PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% But the trend is one – inflation goes UP pic.twitter.com/TmrXCFoc3C — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 26, 2025 The Fed has to keep cutting rates. The cost of borrowing is far too high …
by confoundedinterest17 August represents a massive switch from 3 years ago when there were nearly 40% more home buyers and sellers in the US housing market. There are now 35.2% MORE home sellers than buyers!
🚨 BREAKING! 🇨🇳 China's August Economic Data MISSES Across the Board: 📉 Retail Sales YoY 3.4% (est. 3.9%, prev. 3.7%)📉 Industrial Production YoY 5.2% (est. 5.7%, prev. 5.7%)📈 Unemployment Rate 5.3% (est. 5.2%, prev. 5.2%)Jan-Aug 📉 Fixed Asset Investment YoY 0.5% (est.… pic.twitter.com/totPuytZVq — MacroMicro (@MacroMicroMe) September 15, 2025 China’s economic slowdown deepened in August …
Promise made, promise broken. Food-at-home rose 0.6% from July to Aug—the biggest month-over-month increase since Aug '22. Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 5.6%. Whatever growth Trump claims from his insane trade wars, it's us, everyday Americans, who are paying the price. pic.twitter.com/Q1XIJaFYxb — Ryan Crosswell (@Ryan_Crosswell) September 12, 2025
by Mike Maharrey Despite the significant increase in tariff revenue, the U.S. continues to run massive budget deficits. The budget shortfall for fiscal 2025 has already exceeded last year’s deficit. So much for import duties paying for the government. That’s because Uncle Sam doesn’t have a revenue problem. He has a spending problem. The Trump …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, The CPI was up more than expected in August. Food played a role. The BLS CPI report for August shows the price of food and beverages jumped 0.5 percent with food at home rising 0.6 percent. Six CPI Food Categories Month-Over-Month CPI Food Category Month-Over-Month Details Food and Beverage: …
by confoundedinterest17 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), headline inflation rose 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY in August. Shelter (housing) is up 3.6% YoY. Gimme (expensive) shelter! Of course, Federal government spending is the source of inflation. Notice the lag between Covid spending and resulting inflation. Prayers for Charlie Kirk and his family. I hope …
The Fed would be foolish to hike 0.5, it would signal they’ve been wrong all along. A 0.25 hike now and another 0.25 next month is the smarter approach. .50 Fed rate cut imminent? Those numbers were ice cold. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 10, 2025 PPI ICE COLD: The Producer Price Index for final …
by confoundedinterest17 Not exactly the Guns Of August. More like a wet cap gun firing. The jobs report for August showed only 22k jobs added. U-3 unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. U-6 unemployment and part-time rose to 8.1%. Total private jobs added was 38k while manufacturing jobs added was down -12k. Government jobs dropped -16k. …
August delivered a jolt the labor market could not absorb. Employers added 22,000 jobs, far below the 75,000 forecast, exposing a system that is faltering under pressure. Unemployment climbed to 4.3 percent while wage growth inched 0.3 percent month-over-month and 3.7 percent year-over-year, missing projections. Each number reflects more than performance. It reveals cracks threatening …
The economy just got punched. $31 billion in tariffs hit in a single month. August didn’t end in prosperity or surplus. It ended in extraction. Every dollar was drained from consumers and corporations, funneled straight into the Treasury’s vault. The machinery of wealth didn’t grind forward, it was siphoned sideways. Importantly, tariffs are being paid …
Snowfall was recorded in Poland’s High Tatras mountains on August 24, 2025, for the first time in August since 2010, as temperatures dropped to -3°C (26.6°F) at the summit of Kasprowy Wierch. The event was driven by an Arctic air mass that moved across Poland over the weekend. Poland’s High Tatras Mountains recorded their first …
Without giving numbers this chart is my personal sales metrics over the last 12 months. Something happened in Feb. pic.twitter.com/awTFN5xeM6 — TrustDansCharts (@DizzleTheRizzle) August 27, 2025 This isn’t growth, it’s inflation’s disguise. Negative investment and exports show the economy’s underlying weakness. — MacroInsight360 (@MacroInsight360) August 28, 2025 Here’s an interesting trend from the retail sector: …
The ban stems from: Child safety concerns Inappropriate content Weak moderation systems Chinese regulators cited Roblox’s failure to prevent harmful material from reaching young users, which clashes with the country’s strict digital content laws. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/robolox-is-banned-in-these-countries-shutdown-rumors-usa-safety-issues-global-bans-us-lawsuits-explained/articleshow/123441374.cms
https://twitter.com/TraderLife101/status/1956317748503384570 https://twitter.com/grok/status/1956317985406321049
Aggressive “murder wasps” could invade UK homes over the coming weeks, with Brits urged to keep windows firmly shut to prevent them from gaining entry. The humble cucumber could also help to ward them off, apparently producing a chemical reaction when combined with another common household item. Expected to descend in their thousands, the “aggressive” …
Chuck Schumer criticized Trump’s August 1 tariff order but did not offer any policy alternative. “All Talk, No Substance”: Schumer torches Trump’s tariffs as August 1 deadline hits https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/30/trump-tariff-deadline-august-1-00483122 He called the new duties “an experiment in chaos, dishonesty and inflation” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/31/donald-trump-tariffs-trade-canada-palestine-us-politics-live-news-updates Trump’s order levies 40% tariffs on transshipped goods and 10% on goods from …
Small caps are showing signs of old wounds reopening. The Russell 2000 continues to lag the broad market by more than 20 percent since early 2022. Over 40 percent of its constituents now report losses, a ratio not seen since the dot‑com era. That level of weakness fuels TZA perfectly. TZA offers three times the inverse daily …
On July 23, 2025, the U.S. government officially shut the door on thimerosal. The mercury-based compound, once common in multi-dose flu vials, is now absent from every influenza injection distributed nationwide. The decision followed a 5–1–1 vote from the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, ending over two decades of phaseout efforts dating back to …
