Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Copper traders are racing against the clock to move inventory into the United States before August 1, when a 50% tariff on copper imports takes effect. President Trump confirmed the decision on July 9, citing national security concerns. The tariff applies across the board, with no exemptions announced for origin or product type. The U.S. …
Benjamin Cowen, Founder and CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, discusses Bitcoin dominance as the key to crypto portfolio success and why altcoins remain speculative assets that bleed against Bitcoin over macro time scales.
Congress just published the 2025 schedule. Out of 365 calendar days, the chambers are set to meet on 133. That is roughly one out of every three days. The rest is labeled for travel, district visits, or recess. The Capitol floor will stay mostly quiet. July is limited to twelve working days. August is entirely …
Wall Street’s getting that look again. Not loud. Not panicked. Just quietly nervous. This week, the market sent out one of those soft warning signs that most people scroll past without noticing. The 3-month skew on S&P 500 options just spiked to a level we have not seen since early August last year. To most, …
Only 20 trillion Yen $JPY in debt. 150 bln $USD, or half GDP of Costa Rica or New Zealand. We live in money illusion world. pic.twitter.com/0ULLL31RYv — Kacper Piotr Kaminski (@Kacper_PK_CH) March 4, 2025 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1896895309919424582 Don't be alarmed; it gets much worse. pic.twitter.com/GDnjp7VVl1 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 3, 2025
Heavy truck sales – a leading indicator of past times – weakest since August 2021 pic.twitter.com/1E4fNfox5A — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) February 5, 2025
Compare to August. On the Monday after the jobs report, stocks gapped down and the VIX exploded. Monday open was the low of the week. Today, the market gapped down amid relative complacency. This morning BTFD bounce could be the high of the week. pic.twitter.com/PnHNYjtIWw — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 13, 2025 This incipient bear market …
⚠️BRACE FOR MORE US JOB MARKET DATA REVISIONS⚠️ Nonfarm payrolls will likely be revised DOWNWARD by another ~300,000 jobs for 2Q 2024. This is according to the QCEW data released by the BLS. If this trend continues, it will turn out that August and October saw JOB LOSSES. pic.twitter.com/rA3cgv6En6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December …
by confoundedinterest17 Jackson Browne appartently knew that the Biden/Harris economic recovery would run out of gas as soon as Federal spending started to slow down. The US economy is running on empty. Evidence? The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.28 in September from –0.01 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is crumbing down under Biden/Harris. No, the economy doesn’t hurt so good. The Citi Economic Surprise Index just rose to its highest level since April. The 10Y Treasury yield just rose to its highest level since August.
August, 2020. Joe Biden explains that if his administration just rolls back all of Trump's border security policies, there is a good chance it will cause a border crisis. That's exactly what they did. pic.twitter.com/fZmfYuCh7O — MAZE (@mazemoore) October 8, 2024 Yep! Kamala wants to bring from Lebanon too. WTH? pic.twitter.com/fWT7ZXKLWJ — Sarita (@Saritaregresa) October …
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=580A There’s good news in another corner of today’s report: Americans are saving more than previously thought. The personal saving rate, a measure of the disposable income left over after Americans pay their taxes and regular expenses, was 4.8% in August. The July reading was revised upward, from 2.9% to 4.9%. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/pce-report-for-august-inflation-data-in-the-spotlight-after-fed-s-half-point-rate-cut/card/so-much-for-that-red-flag-consumers-are-saving-more-new-data-shows-b9FLxHAtnRTjI2fZIKgC h/t im____new____here
https://twitter.com/BrrrrrGoes/status/1838648117304136090
"Sales of existing homes fell 1% month over month and 3.1% year over year in August—to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,042,369. That’s the lowest level in records dating back to 2012, with the exception of May 2020."@Redfin pic.twitter.com/mreQ5WMFjy — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 23, 2024 The Zillow Home Value Index for all homes …
Voter registration is breaking records as Election Day approaches, particularly among young people, many of whom are first-time voters. On Tuesday’s National Voter Registration Day more than 150,000 people registered through Vote.org, the most the organization has ever seen on that day. The organization registered 279,400 voters in all of last year. Last week, 337,826 …
by Mike Maharrey India reported record gold imports in August after the country slashed its import duty the month before. India ranks as the world’s second-largest gold consumer behind China. In July, the Indian government cut taxes on gold and silver imports by more than half, lowering duties from 15 percent to 6 percent. The domestic gold …
by confoundedinterest17 More evidence of how destructive Biden/Harris economic policies have been. The NAR data show existing home sales down 2.5 percent in August to a 3.86 million unit seasonally adjusted annual rate after a small upward revision to 3.96 million units in July. US existing home sales fell in August to near 14-year lows. …
Translation, people stopped using Instacart because they’re finally waking up to the fact that they mark everything up 5 to 10% then charge you a delivery fee for the convenience. Just wait till people realize, Uber, DoorDash, etc. do the same. — Locu$t Fund$ (@LocustFunds) September 11, 2024
Each dollar in your paycheck has lost 17% of its value under Bidenomics, the appetizer for Kamunism. Check out @Heritage new personal inflation calculator to see exactly how much inflation is costing your family budget now! https://t.co/6BGc9O3vOq — Richard A. Stern (@RichAStern) September 11, 2024 Look what’s been quietly creeping up in price all year? …
TLDRS: US bankruptcy filings surged in August, reaching 63 filings, up from 49 in July, marking the third-highest monthly total in 2023. The year-to-date total for 2024 stands at 452 filings, nearing the 466 filings recorded during the same period in 2020. August’s spike in filings follows the earlier highs of 72 in June and …
🚨ELON ON TRACK TO BECOME WORLD'S FIRST TRILLIONAIRE BY 2027 Elon is on pace to become the world's first trillionaire by 2027, according to a report by Informa Connect Academy. With his wealth growing at an annual rate of 110%, Musk, already the world's richest person at… pic.twitter.com/252gkLS4Vj — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 8, 2024 …
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during August, down from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. However, the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021. The previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total …
This could be the stock market’s most important week of the year as investors await Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings results on Wednesday, according to one Wall Street analyst. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called the imminent Nvidia results the “most important tech earnings in years” in a note last week. “We believe the most important week for …
Risk appetite has fallen for a third successive month in August … down to a one-year low of -10% in August from -5% in July pic.twitter.com/s9jGWi2DOw — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 14, 2024 Investors increased allocation to bonds, cash, and healthcare … and reduced allocation to equities, Japan, Eurozone, and materials pic.twitter.com/z1TKlEbaF2 — Win …
Models are agreeing a tropical wave may form a hurricane in the next week. Too early to tell where it may land but a run thru the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico or an impact / brush up the east coast. Stay tuned for updates. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami …
France has fallen. America is next unless we put real patriots in office. See you on August 6th. pic.twitter.com/N25qI13oHE — Valentina Gomez (@ValentinaForUSA) July 7, 2024
Speculative positioning in US equity index futures is at all-time highs 🚨 https://t.co/TanGdixabv pic.twitter.com/VUXve06IL3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 8, 2024 Asset Managers’ exposure to US equity futures hits a record high. https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1810467469879857513 Concentration concern: the 3-month correlation between the S&P 500 and the # of stocks advancing has fallen below the dot-com bubble …
Tech is the most overbought since August 2020. And then it dropped straight line -15% back to the 50 dma. pic.twitter.com/4GI2YPnfEr — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 18, 2024 In April, semis rolled over with the rest of the Nasdaq. This time, the Nasdaq has rolled over while semis have made new highs. Which will make this …
via Mike Shedlock Continued claims also show rising economic weakness. Some say it’s just California. Let’s investigate. More signs of economic weakness are showing up in the allegedly strong jobs market. In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week’s …
CRB stands for “Commodity Research Bureau,” which is a widely followed index that tracks the prices of various commodities. It includes 19 commodities in its index. Just as Powell gets dovish, the CRB index is within 1% of its highest close since August 2022. pic.twitter.com/xqYwUYZrmV — Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar) March 26, 2024