Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
🚨🚨MAJOR BREAKING The USA CRUSHES Canada with 35% softwood lumber tariffs, more than doubling them from April levels this, only 2 days after Carney announced he would subsidize the Canadian lumber industry. They are moving rapidly now. pic.twitter.com/5aZmVJfDRi — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) August 9, 2025 Trump hit Canada with 35% lumber tariffs. Days after Carney …
Tariffs began as taxes. First to raise revenue. Then to protect local industries. Later to enforce reciprocity. Three goals. One blunt tool. It never worked smoothly. “Looking at several centuries of tariffs, we can summarize their impact through three R’s: revenue, restriction, and reciprocity.” https://econlife.com/2025/01/the-three-rs-of-tariffs/ Push tariffs too high and imports collapse. Revenue drops. Push …
It's interesting to see some people claim inflation is slowing. The equal-weighted commodities index is up 12% in the past year. That’s real-world inflation. Meanwhile, US money supply just hit a new high, and the dollar is weakening sharply against other currencies, including… pic.twitter.com/xYS56p7DeX — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) August 9, 2025 Commodities surged 12% …
Bessent acknowledges that tariffs *might* cause inflation for the first time ever. pic.twitter.com/j3SkWXhDQ0 — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) August 7, 2025
Student loans are cracking. Retail margins are gone. Same pressure. Different fronts. Borrowers are defaulting into wage garnishment. Retailers are stuck with early inventory and no restock window. Both moved too soon. The SAVE plan stalled. Notices went out. Interest resumed. Servicers weren’t ready. Borrowers weren’t warned. Now 3 million are set to default by …
Tariffs Announced by Trump. 🇮🇳 India – 25% + 25% = 50%🇧🇷 Brazil – 50%🇸🇾 Syria – 41%🇲🇲 Myanmar – 40%🇱🇦 Laos – 40%🇨🇭 Switzerland – 39%🇨🇦 Canada – 35%🇮🇶 Iraq – 35%🇷🇸 Serbia – 35%🇩🇿 Algeria – 30%🇱🇾 Libya – 30%🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina – 30%🇿🇦 South Africa – 30%🇧🇳 Brunei –… — The …
The U.S. just announced a 15% tariff hike on Japanese imports. This comes two weeks after Trump declared a “massive” trade agreement with Japan on July 22, calling it “maybe the largest deal in history.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-trade-deal-japan-tariff-imports/85331747007/ The July 23 agreement was supposed to lock in a 15% baseline tariff and prevent a threatened 25% hike. …
President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 6, 2025. While some reports say this pushes tariffs to 50%, that number is misleading. The Times of India explained, “President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all Indian goods, escalating trade tensions between the United States and India” https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/donald-trump-tariffs-india-news-live-updates-russia-oil-india-us-trade-deal-tariff-impact-pm-modi/liveblog/123138458.cms. The …
“U.S. imports from China fell to 28.3 billion in April, the lowest since March 2020 amid rising tariffs and trade uncertainty.” https://www.tipranks.com/news/u-s-imports-from-china-at-lowest-level-since-2020-as-trade-deficit-halves “President Trump has warned that the European Union could face 35 % tariffs unless it meets a $600 billion investment commitment that he called a gift.” https://www.nypost.com/2025/08/05/us-news/trump-threatens-to-ratchet-up-tariffs-on-eu-if-it-fails-to-invest-600b-in-us/ “India has slammed the United States and EU for double …
Trump unleashed a major tariff threat on India over Russian oil trade. This marks a sharp escalation in U.S.–India tensions. “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in …
The Trump administration collected $29.6 billion in tariffs in July 2025, setting a new record. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “We could expect that that could be well over $300 billion by the end of the year.” https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/scott-bessent-says-tariffs-will-result-in-300-b-windfall-this-year/chFUKuSR5hJ So will they pay down the national debt with the extra revenues or just spend it? pic.twitter.com/fCwHs8T1JU …
“If we get anything more than zero tariffs, then the only thing we negotiated was the price of our humiliation.” Mark Carney says he will only accept a best deal for Canada. So what does a “best deal” look like? If we get anything more than zero tariffs Then the only thing we negotiated was …
Raise tariffs ON other countries? Bro, tariffs are only charged to Americans. — Brent Freeman (@bgetsbetter) August 2, 2025
Apple delivered $94 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, up nearly 10 percent year‑on‑year, and posted earnings per share of $1.57, above expectations. “Apple shares fell after the company trimmed its stock buyback program … ‘The $100 billion buyback announced is below the $110 billion announced a year ago, which we found as a bit of a head‑scratcher,’” said …
by Michael It was nice while it lasted. Nations all over the globe had until August 1st to agree to a trade deal with the Trump administration. Some of them made deals, but most of them did not. Those that did not will now be hit by a “wall of tariffs”, with individual rates being …
Stock futures opened sharply lower. Dow futures shed about 0.8%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.9%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1%. Earnings weakness added pressure, but Trump’s tariff shock dominated headlines. “The average tariff rate roughly on reciprocal is going from about 2.5% to 15%,” said Vasu Menon, managing director at OCBC. https://www.reuters.com/business/view-investors-react-trumps-new-reciprocal-tariffs-announcement-2025-08-01/ President Trump’s …
Chuck Schumer criticized Trump’s August 1 tariff order but did not offer any policy alternative. “All Talk, No Substance”: Schumer torches Trump’s tariffs as August 1 deadline hits https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/30/trump-tariff-deadline-august-1-00483122 He called the new duties “an experiment in chaos, dishonesty and inflation” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/31/donald-trump-tariffs-trade-canada-palestine-us-politics-live-news-updates Trump’s order levies 40% tariffs on transshipped goods and 10% on goods from …
Trump changed tariff rules just before the deadline. He slapped 40% duties on all transshipped goods. If a country is not on the latest list, its goods will get an extra 10% tax. The new rates start for goods entering the US at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, seven days after the order, with some …
Inflation rose in June to 2.6 percent annually, higher than economists expected. The Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, showed prices increasing as tariffs on imported goods pushed costs up. Vanguard analysts said, “Core goods … should reflect substantial growth due to tariffs, especially on sensitive categories like household furnishings …
Economists are having trouble understanding why stocks are at all-time highs. Well, technically, they are not measured in currencies other than the US dollar, like the euro, but in local currency terms, yes. According to economic textbooks, tariffs hamper free trade, cause investment uncertainty, and lead to suboptimal economic outcomes. The reality is that US …
This is US consumer imports. pic.twitter.com/O5epi5CBq1 — Anna Wong (@AnnaEconomist) July 29, 2025 Stunning. U.S. imports of consumer goods have plunged by 43.9% over the past 3 months … that is the largest decline in history pic.twitter.com/kybq7DxPtT — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 29, 2025
$38 trillion. That is the mountain of debt the United States carries. Senator Josh Hawley proposes issuing rebate checks funded by tariffs. The idea sounds simple. Tariffs raise revenue but also push prices higher for consumers already squeezed by inflation. Instead of tackling unchecked spending or entitlement growth, this plan kicks the can down the …
The final week of July 2025 is not a policy moment. It’s a collision of pressure points. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth straight meeting. The decision lands Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Trump’s push for cuts has intensified, with direct pressure on Powell and …
Retirement plans get cashed out, fast food becomes unaffordable, and “feeling financially free” now means half a million a year or bust. The working class is melting down in real time, but don’t worry, the White House says the economy is strong. People are so fucking broke Last year, a record 4.8% of workers in …
The EU just signed off on a $1.35 trillion trade framework that locks in a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the U.S. In return, Brussels pledged to buy $750 billion of American LNG over 3 years and invest another $600 billion into U.S. industries. Von der Leyen called it “predictability.” Markets called …
Foreigners are paying 10% of the tariffs. Americans are paying 90%. Congratulations for playing yourselves. pic.twitter.com/ycDGeTQGb0 — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) July 27, 2025
US and EU have locked in a trade pact that resets the terms of $1.3 trillion in annual exchange. Trump confirmed the deal from Turnberry, Scotland, after a closed-door session with Ursula von der Leyen. The agreement halts a tariff escalation set to detonate August 1. EU will inject $600 billion into US sectors over …
The prime ministers of Britain and India sealed a hard-wrought trade agreement on Thursday that will slash tariffs on products including Scotch whisky and English gin shipped to India and Indian food and spices sent to the U.K.
The deal looks like a headline win. Japan agreed to invest $550 billion into U.S. infrastructure and accept a 15% tariff on its exports. Trump’s team calls it leverage. The talking points promise economic victory. But underneath, the funding channel runs domestic. Japan exports roughly $150 billion worth of goods to the United States every …