The EU just signed off on a $1.35 trillion trade framework that locks in a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the U.S. In return, Brussels pledged to buy $750 billion of American LNG over 3 years and invest another $600 billion into U.S. industries. Von der Leyen called it “predictability.” Markets called it “not a disaster.” France called it “submission.” The steel tariff stays at 50%. Pharma and semiconductors still taxed. The EU’s biggest export sectors just got clipped.
- LNG from the U.S. costs 3 to 5 times more than Russian pipeline gas. But it’s “better,” says VDL. Better for whom?
- $750 billion in energy purchases spread over 3 years. That’s $250 billion per year. Europe’s current LNG spend is under $90 billion. Where’s the delta coming from?
- $600 billion in U.S. investment pledged. No source disclosed. No timeline. No enforcement. Just vibes.
- 15% tariff replaces the 4.8% average rate pre-Trump. Tripled the cost. Called it a win.
- Von der Leyen offered zero-for-zero. Trump said no. She blinked. He banked.
- Steel and aluminum stay taxed at 50%. Builders pay more. Defense costs rise. Inflation gets a second wind.
- Pharma and semiconductors excluded from exemptions. Europe’s biggest exports still taxed. But hey, aircraft parts are safe.
- EU GDP growth forecast cut from 1.3% to 0.9% in Q2. That was before this deal. Buckle up.
- Germany’s auto sector faces $1.5 billion profit hit in H1 2025. Volkswagen already feeling it. Mercedes next.
- French PM called it a “dark day.” When even the wine country sobers up, you know it’s bad.
They printed “predictability” for EU businesses. But nothing in the deal looks predictable. LNG purchase commitments exceed what Europe even consumes. U.S. output and shipping won’t hit those numbers, especially with Gulf terminals stretched and Atlantic tanker rates climbing. The $600 billion investment pledge has no enforcement, no signoff, no timeline. Brussels surrendered the leverage, paid up front, and left enforcement to Washington’s mood. Steel tariffs stayed. Pharma got no relief. The only party locked into obligations is Europe. Everything else is optional.
This is beyond parody: pic.twitter.com/iIwZeq91S0
VDL says that US LNG gas is "more affordable and better" than Russian gas in order to justify the unequal treaty she just signed Europe for, in which – among other concessions – she commits to buy $750 billion of US LNG over the…
— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) July 28, 2025
Why is Europe so weak?
European men used to believe they could conquer the world. https://t.co/sPJyoPoPjW
— The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) July 28, 2025
Wasn't the whole premise of EU rally this year (e.g. Germany) massive fiscal spend on, basically, weapons? Now they need to buy them from USA instead, plus more expensive energy, and extra tariffs. Im surprised DAX is not down, but just flat on this great 'deal'
— Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) July 28, 2025
🧵 The EU-US trade deal is objectively bad for the EU, possibly even terrible.
It's a deal that, despite its name, makes trade more expensive and unattractive. Most EU products will be subject to a whooping 15% tariff, tripling the 4.8% average rate before Trump's second term. pic.twitter.com/68RR2pkstf
— Jorge Liboreiro (@JorgeLiboreiro) July 27, 2025
https://invezz.com/news/2025/07/28/us-lng-stocks-rally-as-eu-commits-750b-to-american-fuel-imports
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/28/europe-us-trade-deal-reaction/85403000007/
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/27/trump-european-union-eu-trade-tariffs.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-us-trade-deal-explained-b2797168.html