Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The IMF is openly warning that frontier AI models like Claude Mythos may have shattered the traditional cybersecurity timeline entirely. In a new blog post published today, IMF researchers warned that AI is driving the cost and time needed to discover zero day vulnerabilities toward “near zero,” creating what they describe as a growing threat …
AXP is being framed as a steady compounder at a reasonable multiple, but that stability depends on more moving parts than the headline growth suggests. Earnings growth at ~14% over 1Y and 5Y, with a P/E of 19.77 and forward P/E of 16.03, is pricing continuity rather than acceleration. That continuity assumption matters because American …
It’s all part of the strategy of keeping stability in energy prices while winning the operation. — Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) March 20, 2026 We knew Iran would close Hormuz to drive up the price of oil. We will unsanction Iran oil to drive the price back down. CHECKMATE!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/miNFJcjccw — Alex Christoforou (@AXChristoforou) …
Families don’t delay kids by chance, they do it because the basic math of life is breaking. When a house requires a midlife crisis to afford, the future starts thinning out right in front of us. The average age of a first-time American homebuyer is 40 years old. 40. Years. Old. It was 25 in …
🚨 UN CHIEF DEMANDS CENSORSHIP CRACKDOWN António Guterres has called for tighter control of social media, claiming that “false narratives” threaten the UN’s Agenda 2030 goals and global stability. He condemned what he called “a tsunami of conspiracy theories” and demanded… pic.twitter.com/UkyJVhvbEc — Jim Ferguson (@JimFergusonUK) November 10, 2025 Who decides what is true when …
The alarms aren’t just blinking anymore. They’re blaring. America’s debt-fueled consumer economy is starting to crack. Families who used to keep the stores and car dealers busy are now falling behind on payments. This isn’t some slow leak. It looks and feels like the early days of 2008, only deeper and faster. Car loans are …
Look, I’m not left or right, okay? But let’s be honest. The right usually trusts cops. The left usually doesn’t. That’s just how it shows up. Watch a protest. Right-leaning rallies? Flags, chants, speeches, maybe a little shouting, then done. Left-leaning protests? Sometimes a loud few block streets, clash with police, break stuff. Not everyone, …
They keep telling you the housing market is “stable,” but stability does not require this much scaffolding, this much manipulation, this much concealment, and the louder the reassurances become, the more you should question what exactly is being hidden under the floorboards. Nearly 70% of FHA borrowers now carry debt to income ratios that would …
Global confidence in the dollar is already fragile. Any serious move into gold signals that investors no longer trust Washington to manage debt or preserve purchasing power. This is more than a market event. It is a warning that the financial system is teetering on the edge and a crisis could ignite at any moment. …
The EU just signed off on a $1.35 trillion trade framework that locks in a 15% tariff on most of its exports to the U.S. In return, Brussels pledged to buy $750 billion of American LNG over 3 years and invest another $600 billion into U.S. industries. Von der Leyen called it “predictability.” Markets called …
The Big, Beautiful Bill not only won't make America Great Again, but it continues the destructive fiscal policies that contributed to our fall from greatness. Ironically, it may be the straw that breaks the camel's back, ushering in a long overdue dollar & sovereign debt crisis. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 24, 2025 Peter Schiff …
by PrestigiousCat969 Nasdaq 100 Index has nearly doubled since the start of 2023. It’s has gone 467 sessions trading above its 200-day moving average — the second-longest streak since the index’s inception four decades ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The gauge trades about 10% above that long-term support level, a signal of relative stability …
Most of the US stock market are tech, that has a very high valuation plot from multpl. com pic.twitter.com/YQgSP5LoRy — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) December 15, 2024 European Stocks trading at an all-time record discount relative to U.S. Stocks 🚨 https://t.co/MBwckCKVD2 pic.twitter.com/c1nwYFwjLJ — Barchart (@Barchart) December 16, 2024 ZIRP allowed the government to run up …
⚠️US FOOD INFLATION IS BACK⚠️ Food prices rose by 0.4% in Sep, the biggest jump since February 2023. 5 out of the 6 major grocery store food group prices increased with eggs jumping as much as 8.4%. Over the last 4 years, food prices SKYROCKETED 22.5%👇https://t.co/OAcZin2MlG — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 15, 2024 Rising …
According to a release by the Office of Nuclear Energy, Hermes reactor is being built to announce the development of the company’s commercial reactor that could be deployed next decade. Hermes will use a TRISO fuel pebble bed design with a molten fluoride salt coolant to demonstrate affordable clean heat production. The project was cleared for construction back in December by the U.S. …
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240731.pdf TLDRS: The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting minutes highlight economic concerns and financial vulnerabilities. Usage of the Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) facility slightly declined, with a more noticeable decrease expected later in the year due to increased Treasury bill issuance but could change due to idiosyncratic factors specific to some ON RRP participants. …
5-year correlation of USD/JPY v. 10y UST yield suggests 10y yield could head back toward 5%. Problem is US can't afford Interest, Entitlements, & Cold War 2.0 at a 5% 10y w/o more USD liquidity. Translation: Weak JPY is as much the Fed's & Treasury's problem as it is the BOJ's. pic.twitter.com/1LKDLWP1WV — Luke Gromen …
Buy now, pay later options are becoming more accessible to consumers. A quarter of Americans surveyed in April 2024 said they used buy now, pay later services in the past 12 months, according to a recent report from NerdWallet. The number of buy now, pay later loans increased nearly 1,100% between 2019 and 2021, according to data …
Canadian banks are indeed bracing for a “mortgage renewal cliff.” As mortgage renewals approach for over three-quarters of homeowners, Canada’s Big Six banks are adding billions of dollars to their emergency funds. The spike in mortgage payments that many homeowners will face during renewal is known as the “mortgage cliff.” Mortgage rates are significantly higher …
Undecided voters in swing states unanimously favor Trump’s policies over Biden’s, citing concerns about grocery costs and dismissing Biden’s economic record as laughable. A panel of undecided voters in swing states unanimously agree Trump's policies would be better for their families, laughing at the mention of Biden believing his economic record is "good." 😂 "He's …
The Treasury funds its deficits by borrowing more money, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. With interest payments reaching historic highs and set to climb further, concerns over the US Dollar’s stability are mounting. Investment management giant BlackRock issues a warning, advising investors to shift some cash reserves into bonds amid market volatility and …
Iranian missiles strike airbase in southern Israel. Follow: @AFpost pic.twitter.com/UNFCpp8zzP — AF Post (@AFpost) April 14, 2024 BREAKING – Iran attack 'ongoing': Israeli army pic.twitter.com/mYjGjhxWyc — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) April 14, 2024 As the world awakens to the echoes of explosions and the wails of sirens, a chilling reality grips the Middle East. Iranian missiles …
This jobs data could not be better for housing bears. Full time employment is collapsing while they report a "strong" jobs market leading to higher for longer rates and collapsing sales and then prices. pic.twitter.com/mdz9wXh9uO — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) April 6, 2024 Gig economy workers, exemplified by platforms like Uber and DoorDash, often lack the …
“The Fed has a mostly bullshit mandate to keep prices “stable.” What they know is the higher the inflation, the richer them and all their friends get with ZERO effort or success. So how do they accomplish this? 1. They increase the target range of inflation from 0% to 1-2% 2. Once 2% is hard …
As inflation and steep interest rates persist, Americans are accumulating more credit card debt, with the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit expected to reveal a new record exceeding $1.08 trillion. Despite Fed Chair Powell’s assurance that another real estate-led banking crisis akin to 2008 is unlikely, he anticipates …
MSNBC goes to a black barbershop: “We’re broke with Biden… we weren’t with Trump… With Trump, we had money” Their not wrong.It's not that complicated.The media wants it complicated…but it's not. — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) February 3, 2024
Asia Hedge Fund Founders Shut Shop for Big Pay at Global Giants (Bloomberg) — Hedge fund founders in Asia are jumping ship to global giants from Citadel to Millennium Management as the struggles of capital raising and pressure to make higher returns curb the attractiveness for some managers’ solo endeavors. Torq Capital Management Chief Investment …
Unacceptable! The border crisis is so bad that it looks like a movie scene! pic.twitter.com/0I9rMmmK7J — Matt Wallace (@MattWallace888) December 24, 2023 No signs of slowing down https://t.co/alknNTyGNt — Blake (@_BlakeHabyan) December 23, 2023 "Non-US Citizens Without Passports" Yes, this is a real line for people boarding domestic flights in Tucson Airport. The same regime …
Pizza Hut franchise is laying off 366 delivery drivers because of California’s new $20/hour fast food wages Two Pizza Hut operators in California are eliminating their in-house delivery services at hundreds of stores, resulting in more than 1,200 driver layoffs, according to federal employment notices reviewed by Business Insider. The layoffs, effective throughout February, affect …
🚨Why Bond Yields Across The World Are COLLAPSING 🚨 🧵THREAD 🧵👇 Global interest rates are plummeting. As central banks step back, the question arises: Why are rates falling so rapidly? It's not just about potential recessions in the U.S. or elsewhere. There are bigger,… pic.twitter.com/bB0PXrsBo7 — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) December 19, 2023 China: Aggregate …