Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Is now a good time to invest or sell everything? US stocks fell from record highs on Friday as Wall Street digested an update on consumer inflation that showed prices firming higher above the Fed’s target in July.
Fed’s Common Inflation Expectations Index just got updated and makes JPOW’s JH speech look even more awkward, if at all possible pic.twitter.com/xh36qnP5nW — KKGB (@INArteCarloDoss) August 27, 2025 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1960748123900252638 “No consumer price inflation” Is this a comedy act? Show me the CPI in 6 months🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/tGtulWJ71S — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 27, 2025 Fixed 30-year …
by Michael Do you feel knots in your stomach due to financial stress? If so, you certainly have lots of company. All of a sudden, everyone is talking about the cost of living and prices are rising by double-digit percentages all around us. There are so many people out there right now that feel like they are …
Small businesses in the U.S. are facing big challenges. Health insurance costs keep rising. Premiums for firms with fewer than 50 employees went from $20,236 in 2019 to $25,167 in 2024 (https://www.kff.org/report-section/ehbs-2024-section-1-cost-of-health-insurance/). The average family premium was $7,529 in 2023 (https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2024/dec/trends-employer-health-insurance-costs-2014-2023). Deductibles are high too, averaging $5,074 a year per employee (https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2024/dec/trends-employer-health-insurance-costs-2014-2023). Credit card fees …
Today we’re talking about something that’s hitting all of us hard. Your grocery bill. If you’ve noticed your food costs going through the roof lately, you’re not crazy. And here’s the thing – it’s about to get much worse. Let’s talk real numbers here. Food prices jumped 0.3% just in June. That’s 3% higher than …
In July 2025, 71 large US companies filed for bankruptcy. That is the highest monthly total since the pandemic lockdown peak in 2020. June saw 66 filings, and May had 64. Source: https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1955262243320541630 The year-to-date total now stands at 446 bankruptcies, already surpassing full-year totals for 2021, which had 405, and 2022 with 373. This …
As of June 2025, the cost of Trump’s tariffs is split clearly: U.S. companies have absorbed 64% of the burden, foreign exporters took on 14%, and U.S. consumers already paid 22%. Goldman Sachs’ analysis confirms this breakdown through mid-2025, showing who is really bearing the tariff costs. https://deepnewz.com/tariffs/goldman-sachs-u-s-companies-absorbed-64-tariff-costs-consumers-share-to-rise-f9d46ce8 As of June, foreign exporters absorbed 14% …
BALTIMORE,MD **MULTI VICTIM SHOOTING** POLICE REPORTING 6 SHOOTING VICTIMS INCLUDING A 5 YEAR OLD AND 15 YEAR OLD – CHECKING AREA HOSPITALS FOR OTHER WALK IN VICTIMS #BREAKING pic.twitter.com/ROIEiyGv9T — Alertpage, Inc (@alertpage) August 10, 2025 Baltimore Police: "BPD is scene of a mass shooting at the intersection of Spaulding & Queensbury Avenues. Multiple streets …
The Kids Online Safety Act closely follows the Anti-Defamation League’s bill targeting anti-Semitism, which often means anti-Zionism in practice. Critics say Western governments, after backing Israel’s actions in Gaza, now push this law to silence dissent online. The timing looks suspicious. The law claims to protect children but mainly punishes social media companies with heavy …
Housing is more broken than most admit. Cutting rates won’t fix it. Prices remain too high and wages too low to afford a home. Inventory shortages in key regions make matters worse. First-time buyers are pushing 40 years old on average. That shows how the market locks out younger generations. Albert Edwards, known for predicting …
Data centers built to serve TikToks and ad targeting are quietly draining our grids. U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts electricity use slicing through records, rising from 4,097 billion kWh in 2024 to 4,193 billion in 2025 and 4,283 billion in 2026, largely due to AI data center growth https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/data-center-demand-push-us-power-use-record-highs-2025-26-eia-says-2025-06-10/. In 2023 data centers consumed 4.4 % of …
UPS is closing 73 buildings and cutting 20,000 jobs. Amazon volume is down 50 percent. That’s not automation. That’s collapse. UPS says it’s “reconfiguring the network” but the closures are concentrated in retail-heavy states where consumer demand is evaporating. Q2 revenue fell nearly 3 percent. Peak season plans? Not submitted. That means retailers don’t know …
The final week of July 2025 is not a policy moment. It’s a collision of pressure points. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth straight meeting. The decision lands Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. Trump’s push for cuts has intensified, with direct pressure on Powell and …
Grocery prices now change 100 times a day. Walmart’s electronic shelf labels are live in 1,000+ stores, with 2,300 targeted by December. Kroger’s rollout is ahead of schedule. Labels update based on time, inventory, competitor pricing, and weather. USDA’s July 25 forecast shows food-at-home prices rose 0.2% MoM, up 2.4% YoY. Eggs dropped 10.8% in …
Pediatric ER shifts are tracking cases that wouldn’t have been flagged five years ago. Chest pain in 16-year-olds. Hypertensive spikes in healthy teens. Vascular stress showing up in imaging reports. Cardiologists are watching and recalibrating. The latest 2025 data confirms it. Heart attack risk among young adults is climbing, and younger brackets aren’t out of …
“Europe’s not preparing for war—it’s preparing for collapse.” 🎯 “These elites [in France, Germany and the UK] aren’t gearing up for war with Russia because they care about freedom—they’re doing it because their grip on power is slipping, and fast.” “Their economies are breaking, the middle class is crushed, people can’t afford rent, food or …
Mean reversion on that going to be rough! Pulte owns 38 million shares of $PHM or around 19% of the company stock. Imagine how much he borrowed from the bank using his stock as collateral. This is why Pulte is sperging out 40 times a day on twitter. His family fortune is on the line …
Markets flash crisis signs… Current situation: 1. Bitcoin is up +60% in 3 months like the USD is broken 2. The USD is falling in its worst start to a year since 1973 3. Gold prices are rising toward $3,400/oz like inflation is back 4. Treasury yields are rising like deficit spending is worsening 5.… …
Over the past decade, Canada spent ~$11.2 billion on overseas gender initiatives under its Feminist International Assistance Policy, focusing on gender equality and women’s empowerment. This conservative estimate excludes billions more from gender-integrated projects. Critics, like the Fraser Institute, call it wasteful, while Trudeau’s government defends it as vital for economic recovery and social equity. …
The UK’s National Health Service is showing signs of structural rot. Not just in funding, but in function. The latest Darzi investigation, commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care, laid it out in plain terms: the NHS is in “critical condition.” Waiting lists have ballooned from 2.4 million in 2010 to over 7 …
6.5M sidelined want work participation rate keeps falling… 1. Sector BreakdownJune job gains were led by gov’t, healthcare, and hospitality—low-wage, service-heavy sectors. Meanwhile, business services, manufacturing, and tech were flat or shrinking. This isn’t strength—it’s a shift toward unproductive labor. pic.twitter.com/STzuNl5NM8 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) July 3, 2025 3. People Not in Labor Force …
New party buzz grows Elon says system no longer works… A 40% openness to new parties reflects voter frustration with D.C.’s broken system—endless spending, zero accountability. But the solution isn’t rebranded politics. It’s structural reform: sunset clauses on bloated programs, mandatory debt-to-GDP caps, and DOGE-style forensic… — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) July 2, 2025
“It Ends, and It Ends Now”: Pam Bondi Unleashes Federal Crackdown on Sanctuary Cities “They were prioritizing illegal al*ens over American citizens… these sanctuary policies are the root of the cause of violent crime in our country.” LA. NY. IL. NJ. CO. MN. She’s suing them all. “We’re finding you… No longer will crime be …
The housing market is not just cooling. It is cracking. The latest data from May 2025 shows existing home sales running at an annualized pace of 4.03 million units. That is the weakest May since 2009. It is also the second-worst May on record. Sales have now declined year over year for four straight months. …
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s primary inflation reading, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.3%.
$VIX is no longer going down on $SPY rising. That's a redflag for the bulls.It is sitting on 2 strong legs. See pic. pic.twitter.com/9tzYYRKg4F — Astro Zan (@alshfaw) June 26, 2025 VIX 1d is under 9.. lol… what a fn joke pic.twitter.com/TguXbiP4ht — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) June 26, 2025
Smoke seen rising after Israel attacked multiple targets in Tehran on Monday
CNBC: Bond king Jeff Gundlach: I wouldn’t rule out another round of QE focused on the long end if bond yields keep rising. That’s the first time I’ve heard an institutional investor mention QE during this cycle. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 18, 2025 Gundlach: If unemployment starts rising substantially the Fed will cut rates …
Echoes of 2008 stir on Wall Street… Just as in 2000 & 2007, when weekly unemployment claims start nearing 300K you can kiss the bull market goodbye. Mark it down. 💯 Chart from @profplum99. pic.twitter.com/bJffcNyvN5 — John (@market_sleuth) June 19, 2025 CRASH WARNING🛑 Dow Jones 2008 vs 2025 Likely or Unlikely? Study carefully; carefully study. …
Picture 2008 again. The fear on screens. The system breaking. Now pause. The difference today is quieter and darker. The collapse arrives in data points, not alarms. Start with labor. The working‑age population between 25 and 54 is now shrinking in absolute terms. That means fewer workers, fewer new households, fewer buyers. Without a growing …