The UK NHS waiting lists hit 7M. Referrals ignored. Private care rising. Sick notes harder to get. AI rollout won’t fix trust.

The UK’s National Health Service is showing signs of structural rot. Not just in funding, but in function. The latest Darzi investigation, commissioned by the Department of Health and Social Care, laid it out in plain terms: the NHS is in “critical condition.” Waiting lists have ballooned from 2.4 million in 2010 to over 7 million by mid-2024. Over 300,000 patients have waited more than a year for treatment. Mental health referrals for children under 18 now exceed 109,000.

Reception desks are failing at the basics. Patients report being misunderstood when giving their date of birth. Files go missing. Referrals vanish. The system doesn’t just lag, it misfires. The Darzi report flagged a £37 billion capital shortfall. That’s money that could’ve gone to new hospitals, updated equipment, and basic infrastructure. Instead, it’s been stripped out. The result is a service that leans on excuses and deflects accountability.

Private care is rising because public care is stalling. Patients say doctors and dentists only deliver proper service when paid privately. That’s not anecdotal. It’s systemic. Between 2006 and 2022, hospital spending rose from 47% to 58% of the NHS budget. Community care shrank. Mental health nurses in the field dropped by 5%. GP numbers fell below OECD averages. The NHS strategy says care should move closer to home. The numbers say the opposite.

The government’s new 10-year plan, unveiled in July 2025, promises reform. It includes AI triage, robotic surgery, and DNA testing at birth. But the core issue isn’t tech. It’s trust. Patients say sick notes are harder to get. Disability proof is buried in bureaucracy. The suspicion is that government and NHS leadership are aligned in limiting sick leave. Fewer notes mean fewer absences. That’s the logic. Whether intentional or not, the outcome is the same.

The NHS app is expanding. It’s supposed to be the “digital front door.” But without reliable referrals, clear communication, and functioning admin, it’s just another layer. The Darzi report says productivity is falling. Outpatient appointments per consultant are down 7%. Surgical activity per surgeon is down 12%. Emergency medicine activity is down 18%. The flow is broken. The care is delayed. The frustration is real.

Sources

https://www.nhsconfed.org/publications/darzi-investigation

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/independent-investigation-of-the-nhs-in-england

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/07/03/labour-have-just-blown-britains-last-chance-to-fix-the-nhs/

https://www.itv.com/news/2025-07-02/the-nhs-10-year-plan-what-we-know-so-far

https://www.bigissue.com/life/health/nhs-labour-10-year-health-plan/