US companies shoulder most tariff costs while consumers face rising bills. Tariffs shift from imports to exports.

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As of June 2025, the cost of Trump’s tariffs is split clearly: U.S. companies have absorbed 64% of the burden, foreign exporters took on 14%, and U.S. consumers already paid 22%. Goldman Sachs’ analysis confirms this breakdown through mid-2025, showing who is really bearing the tariff costs. https://deepnewz.com/tariffs/goldman-sachs-u-s-companies-absorbed-64-tariff-costs-consumers-share-to-rise-f9d46ce8

Tariffs are a tax. Plain and simple. There is no clever strategy behind them. Goldman Sachs warns that the consumer share of these costs will jump dramatically to 67% by fall, shifting the pain even more onto American households. “Consumers in the US have absorbed an estimated 22% of tariff costs through June, but their share will rise to 67% if recent tariffs follow the pattern of previous levies.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumers-will-bear-the-brunt-of-tariff-costs-goldman-says/ar-AA1Kh5zP

The inflation impact is not hypothetical—it is baked into key economic measures. So far, tariffs have pushed the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index up by 0.2%. By the end of 2025, that figure could climb to 0.66%, meaning everyday goods will continue to cost noticeably more. “The tariffs have contributed 0.2% to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) so far, with projections suggesting this impact could rise to 0.66% by the end of 2025.” https://gmteight.com/content/detail/295139

Every price increase in stores reflects these policy choices. Every grocery bill carries the cost of tariffs. This is not a minor accounting detail but a policy failure with real consequences. President Trump has made this clear, stating, “Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/07/trump-says-countries-aligning-with-brics-bloc-will-face-extra-tariff.html

The tariff game has shifted from imports to exports, weaponizing trade policy against BRICS nations. This is no longer just a trade war; it’s a move toward global economic fragmentation. BRICS countries are responding with strategies like localization, intra-bloc risk hedging, and independent trade plans. “BRICS nations are developing multi-layered responses to rising trade barriers—from localization and intra-bloc risk hedging to independent trade strategies.” https://kesarev.partners/insights_01082025

America’s former advantage of legal certainty is slipping away. Some countries with shaky legal systems now offer more predictability than the U.S. If the goal is to keep factories, the answer is to build them here, not punish companies for selling abroad. Case in point: as of August 2025, Nvidia and AMD agreed to give 15% of their China chip sales revenue to the U.S. government to secure export licenses. “Nvidia and AMD stocks edged lower early Monday after reports that both companies agreed to give 15% of their China chip sales revenue to the U.S. government. The unusual deal is part of a new arrangement to secure export licenses for their advanced AI chips in the Chinese market.” https://www.fingerlakes1.com/2025/08/11/nvidia-amd-price-today-china-deal/

This is not just a tariff on imports anymore. It’s a tariff on exports disguised as a licensing fee. Access to global markets now comes with a mandatory cut to the Treasury. “US authorities have compelled semiconductor giants Nvidia and AMD to surrender 15% of their chip sales revenue from the Chinese market, as part of conditions for export licenses.” https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2025/08/11/3373754/us-forces-nvidia-amd-to-hand-over-15-of-china-revenues

First they taxed the entry: classic import tariffs, sold as patriotic leverage. Then they said: build here, avoid the toll. Now? They’re taxing the outbound flow.

Export access comes with a skim. China today. BRICS tomorrow. Global baseline next. It’s not protectionism. It’s extraction.