Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
First he put $2.7 million on Netherlands to beat Japan. Game end 2-2 draw, he lose all. Next day he put $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt. Game end 1-1 draw, he lose again. Total loss about $4.2 million in less than 24 hours. https://www.inc.com/georgia-fearn/single-polymarket-trader-lost-four-million-on-world-cup-in-less-than-24-hours/91361322
Data detectives at analytics firm Bubblemaps have unmasked nine connected prediction market accounts… The network raked in over $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on exact U.S. military maneuvers… The anonymous traders maintained a 98% win rate across more than 80 highly specific wagers… Winning slips nailed the exact dates of the first U.S. strikes, the …
2026 control (Odds) Senate 🔵 Democratic – 55%🔴 Republican – 46% House 🔵 Democratic – 85%🔴 Republican – 16% Polymarket pic.twitter.com/yTUHywyG6n — Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) April 19, 2026 I wonder if this has something to do with the odds? Joe Biden is laughing his ass off pic.twitter.com/cj7nq0FoI2 — Aes🇺🇸 (@AesPolitics1) April 19, 2026 AC
https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by
https://x.com/TukiFromKL/status/2039731319182184677 President Donald Trump has informed Pam Bondi that her time as his attorney general is nearing an end, multiple sources familiar with the situation told Semafor. Trump has not yet made a formal announcement of Bondi’s replacement, but one is expected soon. As is typical, the sources noted that Trump can also change his …
A trader made nearly $1 million since 2024 from dozens of well-timed Polymarket bets that correctly predicted US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to an analysis shared with CNN. The bettor won a staggering 93% of their five-figure wagers about Iran, even though the events they predicted were unannounced military operations. The trader …
BREAKING: Oil prices in Oman have surged to $167 a barrel. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 19, 2026 How do I explain that massive gap between US oil futures and the ROW? Manipulation of oil futures by the US government and/or its proxies. The line in the sand is $100. These efforts will backfire and are …
BREAKING: Trump's net approval rating hits a historic low at -15.3%. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 18, 2026 13% chance Trump's approval rebounds this week. https://t.co/0SxebKowyb — Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 18, 2026 h/t dr0id
Trump: Iran operation is progressing ahead of schedule. I will not provide a timeline. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) March 5, 2026 Factcheck: The X post accurately quotes President Trump stating on March 5, 2026, that a U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran is progressing ahead of schedule, with no specific timeline provided, as confirmed by reports from …
A report says that a few users of Polymarket earned significant profits by correctly guessing the date of U.S. strikes on Iran, collectively making $1.2 million Several users on the US-based prediction market platform Polymarket have apparently earned $1.2 million by betting on the timing of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, according to a new report. …
I wonder who it can be https://t.co/2HZjIYL0QC — Mathew (@mrnuu) February 16, 2026 Factcheck: Yes, Polymarket has an active market on “US strikes Iran by Feb 28, 2026” with ~14% odds on Yes and over $16M in volume. Large bets are common, but individual trades aren’t publicly detailed, so I can’t verify the exact $64K …
Haha, nothing is free! Your tax $’s are paying for this NY😂 — Li-B (@LMB1313) February 13, 2026 🚨 #BREAKING: New York City's first free grocery store "The Polymarket" opens its doors at 2pm today. pic.twitter.com/6TtP65RKJL — R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) February 12, 2026
💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Democrats plan to impeach and remove both Trump and Vance if they win the 2026 midterms. According to Polymarket, Democrats currently have an 81% chance to win the midterms. pic.twitter.com/hhQEgmUJNW — Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) January 31, 2026 Multiple reports confirm that some Democratic leaders have publicly expressed intentions to pursue impeachment against Trump …
The Capture of Maduro and Energy Market ramifications. Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, now sits at the center of a major geopolitical shift. With Nicolás Maduro captured and U.S. influence likely to extend over Venezuelan oil assets, the balance of global crude supply could change meaningfully. A U.S.-controlled reopening of Venezuela’s …
I feel so dumb now — President Trump promises $2,000 tariff dividend to every person in America: ‘People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!’https://t.co/Pzym1BNeAt — Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 9, 2025 BREAKING: 90% chance no "tariff dividend" is issued this year, despite rumors of a $2,000 airdrop.https://t.co/u7xmp6qzIc — Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 9, 2025 https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-in-2025?tid=1762703395020 Will …
https://t.co/uZpnABvHb2 — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 7, 2025 Reporter: What do you make of this new Democrat offer? Graham: Horrible. I'm not going to keep giving taxpayer dollars to the five largest healthcare insurance companies under Obamacare to get the government open. pic.twitter.com/Nn3m7VqOrh — Acyn (@Acyn) November 7, 2025 *REPUBLICANS REJECT DEMOCRATS' OFFER TO END SHUTDOWN …
BREAKING: Democratic senators open to cutting deal with GOP to end shutdown, per COURIER. Jon Ossoff (GA)Gary Peters (MI)Chris Coons (DE)Mark Kelly (AZ) Cortez Masto (NV)Jacky Rosen (NV) Jeanne Shaheen (NH)Maggie Hassan (NH)Angus King (ME)Elissa Slotkin (MI) — Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 6, 2025 Polymarket has 50% probability of ending Govt shutdown only after Nov …
You can track the AI race here:https://t.co/scL5kacTBh — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) June 23, 2025
According to Polymarket, recession odds have climbed back near their April 9th peak. GDP Leaked? pic.twitter.com/3O5XkEYKyU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 29, 2025 $2,900 tariff on a $2,100 purchase from Hong Kong. You can kiss the global economy goodbye. Unavoidable now. Even if we stopped all of this tomorrow. Will take a very long time to …
Polymarket currently has odds at 30% for a U.S.-China trade deal before June—who’s out here betting Yes with both sides not even talking ATM? pic.twitter.com/sWgxVyeSvG — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 24, 2025 China considering removing tariffs on industrial chemicals like ethane: BBG https://t.co/8vpZMvBck8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 25, 2025 Trump: "it would be physically impossible to …
There is no way in hell the betting odds should be this skewed. 85%/15% is irrational. Someone or some group is flooding this. Polymarket diehards don’t believe this result at all. Most in the poly forums and chat beneath the poll think something is incredibly off. 55/45? 60/40? 50/50? sure. 85/15 makes no sense at …
Gold now getting murdered along with everything else as the world faces a global margin call. Futures worsening. It’s going to be a long day. Chaos 💀 pic.twitter.com/l6x2vnDAYD — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 3, 2025 The market's drop in response to tariffs is massive, and it will take time to emerge from this chaos. A …
Polymarket Predicted Trump’s Victory, and Now the FBI Has Raided Its CEO’s Home. The raid was as theatrical and histrionic as the raid on Mar-a-Lago was: “The 26-year-old entrepreneur was woken up at 6:00 a.m. in his Soho home by law U.S. enforcement officers who demanded his phone and electronics.” Why show up at 6 …
🤨🇺🇸👇 FBI seizes Polymarket CEO’s phone, electronics after betting platform predicts Trump win: sourcehttps://t.co/c7SwclnvYb — RafalH (@RafalHolodniak) November 13, 2024 FBI agents raided the Manhattan apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan early Wednesday morning — just a week after the election-betting platform successfully predicted Donald Trump’s stunning victory, The Post has learned. The 26-year-old entrepreneur …
View post on imgur.com Kalshi betting site offering the same odds: View post on imgur.com h/t Pres.Elect Deplorable Garbage
DAILYMAIL: TRUMP Now WINS In 65.9% Of Simulations The former president has shot out to his biggest lead yet in our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model: It shows that he now wins in 65.9 percent of simulations when the algorithm runs through all possible combinations of data. That is a big jump from Friday when the model was …
https://polymarket.com/elections LMAO 🤣🤣🤣 Kamala interview was so bad that Timesquare took down the Polymarket billboard 🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/WoeILF351k — I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) October 17, 2024
Mainstream media is on the decline, and it shows. People are growing weary of establishment lies and narratives. It's encouraging to see platforms like Polymarket, which started as a small startup and has now become a trusted source for accurate information—the market. pic.twitter.com/K6dT9LRQcQ — Ian Miles Cheong (@ianmiles) October 17, 2024 Media falsely blames Congress …
Trump can just do nothing but rest and win. https://polymarket.com/elections This what the betting sites are saying too. https://t.co/fGVSrIiPkS — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 16, 2024 AC