Polymarket “insider trading” probe ignites over $2.4 million war bets

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Data detectives at analytics firm Bubblemaps have unmasked nine connected prediction market accounts…

The network raked in over $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on exact U.S. military maneuvers…

The anonymous traders maintained a 98% win rate across more than 80 highly specific wagers…

Winning slips nailed the exact dates of the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and the ceasefire timeline…

Onlookers are demanding a federal probe. Bets were placed when public odds of those events occurring sat near zero…

If someone on a military planning desk is using a crypto-betting platform to front-run operations, the national security leak is catastrophic…

Suspected insider accounts net $2.4 million on Polymarket Iran war bets with 98% win rate, firm finds

Nine connected Polymarket accounts have raked in more than $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military actions in what digital detectives from the data analytics firm Bubblemaps have identified as a potentially egregious case of insider trading.

The anonymous accounts made winning bets on the specific dates of pivotal moments in the war with Iran: the first U.S. strikes, the removal of Iran’s supreme leader, and the announcement of a ceasefire.

Across more than 80 bets, the accounts had a 98% win rate, even as many wagers were made when the odds of winning were low, according to Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO Nicolas Vaiman, who shared their findings first with 60 Minutes.

“This might be the most insane pattern we have found on Polymarket so far,” Vaiman said. “Luck alone cannot explain those numbers.”

The nine linked accounts aren’t alone in betting on war. More than $1 billion has been staked online this year on military decisions and outcomes. The ability to bet on war on prediction markets has created a whole new category of insider trading.